Wednesday 16 Sep 2026 · 9 picks · 6/9 hit · return 120.2%

Hits

6/9

of all published

Return

120.2%

flat-stake singles

Value picks

3/4

return 163.5%

Likely

3/5

return 85.6%

Match	Sport	Pick	Odds	Kick-off (Helsinki time)	Status	Result
LikelyOdds 1.30–1.75 · hit more often than value picks, but at short odds one loss wipes out several wins. Edge here is usually near zero or negative – no value edge, nothing is certain.
Max Schoenhaus – Matteo MartineauATP Challenger Rennes	Tennis🎾	Max Schoenhaus to winMatch winner · LeoVegasOdds 1.50 · market 64.8% · our estimate 65% · edge -2.8%i	1.50	Wed, 16 Sept 2026, 12:00Wed 16 Sept12:00morning	Loss	Max Schoenhaus–Matteo Martineau 6–7, 4–6 (Martineau won 2–0)
		Schoenhaus's recent form is stronger than Martineau's, but the workload of two qualifying matches and Martineau's rest balance the matchup. The estimate remains within the market's fair distribution.
Schoenhaus's recent form is stronger than Martineau's, but the workload of two qualifying matches and Martineau's rest balance the matchup. The estimate remains within the market's fair distribution.
Bakken Bears – Landstede HammersEuroopan seurajoukkuekilpailu	Basketball🏀	Bakken Bears to winMatch winner · BetfairOdds 1.55 · market 59.7% · our estimate 62% · edge -3.9%i	1.55	Wed, 16 Sept 2026, 16:30Wed 16 Sept16:30morning	Win	Bakken Bears voitti 89–78.
		Bakken are favourites, but several injuries during the preparation period and turnover among key players reduce our estimate to 62 per cent. Landstede come into the match off a Supercup win.
Bakken are favourites, but several injuries during the preparation period and turnover among key players reduce our estimate to 62 per cent. Landstede come into the match off a Supercup win.
Atlético Madrid – OsasunaLa Liga	Football⚽	Atlético Madrid to winMatch winner (1X2) · PinnacleOdds 1.40 · market 70.1% · our estimate 70% · edge -1.9%i	1.40CLV +6.0 %	Wed, 16 Sept 2026, 20:00Wed 16 Sept20:00morning	Win	Atlético Madrid voitti 4–0.
		Atlético are clear favourites at home, but absences in attack and the risk of rotation keep the estimate at market level. At odds of 1.40, no edge emerges.
Atlético are clear favourites at home, but absences in attack and the risk of rotation keep the estimate at market level. At odds of 1.40, no edge emerges.
HIFK – JukuritLiiga	Ice hockey🏒	HIFK to win incl. overtime and shootoutMatch winner incl. overtime and shootout · StakeOdds 1.35 · market 69.3% · our estimate 72% · edge -2.8%i	1.35CLV ±0.0 %	Wed, 16 Sept 2026, 18:30Wed 16 Sept18:30afternoon	Loss	Jukurit voitti 7–4 varsinaisella peliajalla.
		Jukurit are playing their second match in 24 hours and start Matthieu Herpin in goal, while HIFK have had a week of rest. HIFK also welcome back Liukas and Melart, as well as debutant Němeček in defence.
Jukurit are playing their second match in 24 hours and start Matthieu Herpin in goal, while HIFK have had a week of rest. HIFK also welcome back Liukas and Melart, as well as debutant Němeček in defence.
Kayla Day – Liudmila SamsonovaWTA Guadalajara	Tennis🎾	Liudmila Samsonova to winMatch winner · PokerStars SportsOdds 1.33 · market 68.6% · our estimate 69% · edge -8.8%i	1.33	Thu, 17 Sept 2026, 03:10Thu 17 Sept03:10afternoon	Win	Liudmila Samsonova voitti 2–1 erin (7–6, 2–6, 7–6).
		Samsonova is a clear favourite based on ranking, experience and main-draw record on hard courts. However, the sources provide no basis for raising the estimate above the market's 68.6%.
Samsonova is a clear favourite based on ranking, experience and main-draw record on hard courts. However, the sources provide no basis for raising the estimate above the market's 68.6%.
Value picksOur estimate beats the market
Vitaliy Sachko – Thiago MonteiroATP Challenger Szczecin	Tennis🎾	Thiago Monteiro to winMatch winner · LeoVegasOdds 1.86 · market 52.7% · our estimate 56% · edge +3.2%i	1.86	Wed, 16 Sept 2026, 14:00Wed 16 Sept14:00morning	Win	Thiago Monteiro voitti 2–1 erin.
		The underlying level is even, but Monteiro comes into the match on a less demanding schedule: this is Sachko's sixth match in nine days and his second on consecutive days.
The underlying level is even, but Monteiro comes into the match on a less demanding schedule: this is Sachko's sixth match in nine days and his second on consecutive days.
Omonia Nicosia – Celta VigoUEFA Europa League	Football⚽	DrawMatch winner (1X2) · GreatwinOdds 3.49 · market 27.8% · our estimate 31% · edge +6.5%i	3.49	Wed, 16 Sept 2026, 19:45Wed 16 Sept19:45morning	Loss	Omonia Nicosia voitti 1–0; ottelu ei päättynyt tasan.
		Celta's draw-heavy away form, weak attacking output and Iago Aspas's absence raise our estimate for a draw slightly above the market.
Celta's draw-heavy away form, weak attacking output and Iago Aspas's absence raise our estimate for a draw slightly above the market.
New York Mets – Baltimore OriolesMLB	Baseball⚾	Baltimore Orioles to winMatch winner · PinnacleOdds 2.24 · market 43.6% · our estimate 47% · edge +5.3%i	2.24CLV +12.6 %	Thu, 17 Sept 2026, 02:10Thu 17 Sept02:10morning	Win	Baltimore Orioles voitti 7–1.
		Bassitt's starting position is better than Stock's, and Baltimore are still three games off the AL's final wild-card spot. The Mets have already been eliminated.
Bassitt's starting position is better than Stock's, and Baltimore are still three games off the AL's final wild-card spot. The Mets have already been eliminated.
San Francisco Giants – St. Louis CardinalsMLB	Baseball⚾	San Francisco Giants to winMatch winner · HavabetOdds 2.44 · market 38.5% · our estimate 42% · edge +1.3%i	2.44CLV +3.8 %	Wed, 16 Sept 2026, 20:15Wed 16 Sept20:15afternoon	Win	San Francisco Giants voitti 6–5.
		The starters' poor season numbers make the match more even than the market: Liberatore's ERA is 5.53 and Molina's 5.24. The Giants lead the season head-to-head 4–1.
The starters' poor season numbers make the match more even than the market: Liberatore's ERA is 5.53 and Molina's 5.24. The Giants lead the season head-to-head 4–1.