Saturday 19 Sep 2026 · 7 picks · 5/7 hit · return 113.6%

Hits

5/7

of all published

Return

113.6%

flat-stake singles

Value picks

1/1

return 191.0%

Sorceress's pick

1/1

return 170.0%

Likely

3/5

return 86.8%

MatchSportPickOddsKick-off (Helsinki time)StatusResult
LikelyOdds 1.30–1.75 · hit more often than value picks, but at short odds one loss wipes out several wins. Edge here is usually near zero or negative – no value edge, nothing is certain.
TJ Sokol Letovice – KolínTšekin cupVolleyballKolín to winMatch winner · LiveBetOdds 1.36 · market 68.1% · our estimate 68% · edge -7.4%i1.36Sat, 19 Sept 2026, 11:00morningWin–

Kolín are clear market favourites, but their poor recent run of results and the lack of a match-specific starting six provide no basis for raising the estimate above the market's 68.1%.

Basketball Löwen Braunschweig – Gladiators TrierSaksan BBLBasketballGladiators Trier to winMatch winner · BetfairOdds 1.40 · market 65.9% · our estimate 67% · edge -5.8%i1.40Sat, 19 Sept 2026, 19:30morningLoss116–107 Basketball Löwen Braunschweigille

Trier won the previous meeting 106–97 and finished the pre-season unbeaten, but Braunschweig's strong home handicap record prevents us from raising the estimate above the market.

Athletics – Cleveland GuardiansMLBBaseballCleveland Guardians to winMatch winner (moneyline) · FanDuelOdds 1.56 · market 61.6% · our estimate 62% · edge -3.0%i1.56CLV −0.6 %Sun, 20 Sept 2026, 01:10nightWin12–6 Cleveland Guardiansille

Cleveland are clearly ahead in overall season level and the ERA comparison of the starting pitchers favours them. However, the estimate is kept at the market's fair 62.2 per cent.

Pittsburgh Steelers – New England PatriotsNFLAmerican footballNew England Patriots to winMatch winner (moneyline)Odds 1.42 · market 67.8% · our estimate 69% · edge -2.0%i1.42CLV −2.7 %Sun, 20 Sept 2026, 20:00nightWinPittsburgh Steelers–New England Patriots 3–20; Patriots voitti.

New England have four additional rest days and Pittsburgh are without CB Joey Porter Jr. The odds are still tight, so the estimate remains below the inverse of the odds.

Minnesota Vikings – Chicago BearsNFLAmerican footballChicago Bears to winMatch winner (moneyline) · BetssonOdds 1.45 · market 66.3% · our estimate 66% · edge -3.9%i1.45CLV −0.7 %Sun, 20 Sept 2026, 20:00nightLossMinnesota Vikings–Chicago Bears 9–3; Vikings voitti.

Minnesota must rely on Carson Wentz with Kyler Murray out, but that information is already in the current market. No concrete, sourced reason was found to deviate from the market's fair distribution.

Value picksOur estimate beats the market
New England Revolution – Orlando CityMLSFootballNew England Revolution to winMatch winner (1X2) · BetRiversOdds 1.91 · market 51.3% · our estimate 54% · edge +2.8%i1.91CLV −1.1 %Sun, 20 Sept 2026, 02:30nightWin4–2 New England Revolutionille

Orlando's key attacker Antoine Griezmann is doubtful and reportedly did not travel, while the away side played a cup semi-final during the week. New England's strong home record supports an estimate marginally above the market.

Sorceress's pickAdded at the administrator's discretion after the model rejected or did not propose it. Tracked separately.
Newcastle United – Hull CityValioliigaFootballOver 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals · 1xbetNo model estimate for this market1.70Sat, 19 Sept 2026, 17:00afternoonWin2–1 Newcastle Unitedille; yhteensä 3 maalia

Newcastle suffered their first defeat and a major setback under Matthias Jaissle when Leeds thrashed them 4-1 on Monday night. However, the result was perhaps already to be expected for the Magpies, who had a league-high 76 shots against them this season before the round. This issue had also preceded Jaissle's arrival, as only Crystal Palace (42) and Chelsea (40) have conceded more Premier League