Sunday 27 Sep 2026 · 8 picks · 7/8 hit · return 129.5%

Hits

7/8

of all published

Return

129.5%

flat-stake singles

Totals & spreads

1/1

return 188.0%

Likely

6/7

return 121.1%

Match	Sport	Pick	Odds	Kick-off (Helsinki time)	Status	Result
LikelyOdds 1.30–1.75 · hit more often than value picks, but at short odds one loss wipes out several wins. Edge here is usually near zero or negative – no value edge, nothing is certain.
Alexandre Muller – Alejandro Davidovich FokinaATP Chengdu	Tennis🎾	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina to winMatch winnerOdds 1.30 · market 72.6% · our estimate 73% · edge -5.5%i	1.30	Sun, 27 Sept 2026, 10:30Sun 27 Sept10:30morning	Win	1–6, 5–7 (Alejandro Davidovich Fokina voitti)
		Davidovich Fokina is clearly ahead in the rankings and won his opening match in straight sets. However, there are no source-based grounds to deviate from the market's fair 72.7%.
Davidovich Fokina is clearly ahead in the rankings and won his opening match in straight sets. However, there are no source-based grounds to deviate from the market's fair 72.7%.
Adrian Mannarino – Denis ShapovalovATP Chengdu	Tennis🎾	Denis Shapovalov to winMatch winnerOdds 1.40 · market 69.6% · our estimate 70% · edge -2.6%i	1.40	Sun, 27 Sept 2026, 11:00Sun 27 Sept11:00morning	Win	7–6, 3–6, 2–6 (Denis Shapovalov voitti)
		Shapovalov leads the head-to-head 3–1 and has won two matches in Chengdu in straight sets. However, no concrete grounds were found to exceed the market's fair estimate of 69.6%.
Shapovalov leads the head-to-head 3–1 and has won two matches in Chengdu in straight sets. However, no concrete grounds were found to exceed the market's fair estimate of 69.6%.
Maya Joint – Kimberly BirrellWTA Seoul	Tennis🎾	Maya Joint to winMatch winnerOdds 1.58 · market 61.3% · our estimate 64% · edge +1.1%i	1.58	Sun, 27 Sept 2026, 12:00Sun 27 Sept12:00morning	Loss	4–6, 2–6 (Kimberly Birrell voitti)
		Joint came through her semi-final in 49 minutes, while Birrell played two three-set matches on Saturday and the latter lasted 2 h 30 min. The recovery edge lifts Joint marginally above the market estimate.
Joint came through her semi-final in 49 minutes, while Birrell played two three-set matches on Saturday and the latter lasted 2 h 30 min. The recovery edge lifts Joint marginally above the market estimate.
Horsens IC – Team FOG NæstvedDenmark Basketligaen	Basketball🏀	Team FOG Næstved to winMatch winnerOdds 1.48 · market 65.2% · our estimate 65% · edge -3.5%i	1.48	Sun, 27 Sept 2026, 16:00Sun 27 Sept16:00afternoon	Win	73–101 (Team FOG Næstved voitti)
		Næstved opened the season with a 117–56 win and used their full 12-player squad, but evidence from one round is not enough to deviate from the market estimate.
Næstved opened the season with a 117–56 win and used their full 12-player squad, but evidence from one round is not enough to deviate from the market estimate.
Anadolu Efes – BeşiktaşTurkey TBL	Basketball🏀	Anadolu Efes to winMatch winnerOdds 1.44 · market 66.8% · our estimate 67% · edge -3.8%i	1.44	Sun, 27 Sept 2026, 20:30Sun 27 Sept20:30afternoon	Win	95–81 (Anadolu Efes voitti)
		Efes have a longer recovery period than Beşiktaş, but Efes's absences and Beşiktaş's strong head-to-head record balance the situation. The estimate is kept within the market's fair distribution.
Efes have a longer recovery period than Beşiktaş, but Efes's absences and Beşiktaş's strong head-to-head record balance the situation. The estimate is kept within the market's fair distribution.
Baltimore Ravens – Dallas CowboysNFL	American football🏈	Baltimore Ravens to winMatch winner · BetVictorOdds 1.53 · market 61.1% · our estimate 62% · edge -5.1%i	1.53CLV ±0.0 %	Sun, 27 Sept 2026, 23:25Sun 27 Sept23:25night	Win	34–31 (Baltimore Ravens voitti Dallas Cowboysin)
		Baltimore are favourites due to Dallas's four confirmed defensive absences and weaknesses in their run defence, but the Ravens' own offensive absences keep our estimate in line with the market.
Baltimore are favourites due to Dallas's four confirmed defensive absences and weaknesses in their run defence, but the Ravens' own offensive absences keep our estimate in line with the market.
Dallas Wings – Golden State ValkyriesWNBA	Basketball🏀	Golden State Valkyries to winMatch winner (incl. overtime) · StakeOdds 1.33 · market 71.0% · our estimate 71% · edge -5.0%i	1.33CLV ±0.0 %	Mon, 28 Sept 2026, 04:00Mon 28 Sept04:00night	Win	80–104 (Golden State Valkyries voitti)
		Golden State won all three head-to-head meetings during the season by an average of 12.3 points and had the league's best 99.1 DefRtg in the regular season. However, our estimate remains at the market's fair 71.4%.
Golden State won all three head-to-head meetings during the season by an average of 12.3 points and had the league's best 99.1 DefRtg in the regular season. However, our estimate remains at the market's fair 71.4%.
Totals & spreadsOver/under picks call the match's total goals or points, not the winner. Odds are 1.70–2.20 and the reason is always named: pace, goaltending, absences or conditions. In ice hockey overtime and the shootout count; in football only regulation time. Spread picks call the winning margin: Lakers −4.5 wins if the Lakers win by five or more.
Varese – Virtus BolognaItaly Lega A	Basketball🏀	Under 164.5 pointsOver/Under 164.5 pointsOdds 1.88 · market 50.3% · our estimate 54% · edge +1.5%i	1.88	Sun, 27 Sept 2026, 20:00Sun 27 Sept20:00afternoon	Win	69–90 → 159 pistettä, raja 164,5
		Virtus's first two competitive matches totalled 151 and 146 points. Varese's defensive focus and McDowell-White's absence lend slight support to the under bet, although Virtus's short recovery period adds uncertainty.
Virtus's first two competitive matches totalled 151 and 146 points. Varese's defensive focus and McDowell-White's absence lend slight support to the under bet, although Virtus's short recovery period adds uncertainty.