Thursday 1 Oct 2026 · 6 picks · 4/5 hit · return 134.2%

Hits

4/5

of all published · 1 voided, stake returned

Return

134.2%

flat-stake singles

Likely

2/2

return 147.5%

Totals & spreads

2/3

return 125.3%

Match	Sport	Pick	Odds	Kick-off (Helsinki time)	Status	Result
LikelyOdds 1.30–1.75 · hit more often than value picks, but at short odds one loss wipes out several wins. Edge here is usually near zero or negative – no value edge, nothing is certain.
Greece – NetherlandsUEFA Nations League	Football⚽	Netherlands to win (draw no bet)Draw no bet · CasinoinOdds 1.43 · market 65.8% · our estimate 66% · edge -5.9%i	1.43	Thu, 1 Oct 2026, 21:45Thu 1 Oct21:45afternoon	Void	2–2; the draw no bet selection is refunded in the event of a draw
		Netherlands are favourites in the DNB market, but Greece lead the group and the Netherlands' attack has several absences. The estimate is therefore kept exactly at the market's fair 65.8 percent.
Netherlands are favourites in the DNB market, but Greece lead the group and the Netherlands' attack has several absences. The estimate is therefore kept exactly at the market's fair 65.8 percent.
BC Dubai – FenerbahceEuroLeague	Basketball🏀	Fenerbahce to winMatch winner · InterwettenOdds 1.50 · market 63.0% · our estimate 63% · edge -5.7%i	1.50CLV −0.7 %	Fri, 2 Oct 2026, 20:45Fri 2 Oct20:45afternoon	Win	Fenerbahçe beat Dubai Basketball 76–66.
		Fenerbahce are home favourites and Dubai are missing three players, but Dubai's 2–0 start keeps the challengers dangerous. The estimate remains within the market's fair distribution.
Fenerbahce are home favourites and Dubai are missing three players, but Dubai's 2–0 start keeps the challengers dangerous. The estimate remains within the market's fair distribution.
Portugal – NorwayUEFA Nations League	Football⚽	Portugal to win (draw no bet)Draw no betOdds 1.45 · market 65.5% · our estimate 66% · edge -5.0%i	1.45	Sun, 4 Oct 2026, 21:45Sun 4 Oct21:45afternoon	Win	2–1 (Portugal voitti; DNB-valinta toteutui)
		Portugal beat Norway 2–1 in Oslo, but no consistent statistical sample of 5–10 matches was found. The estimate is therefore kept within the market's fair distribution.
Portugal beat Norway 2–1 in Oslo, but no consistent statistical sample of 5–10 matches was found. The estimate is therefore kept within the market's fair distribution.
Totals & spreadsOver/under picks call the match's total goals or points, not the winner. Odds are 1.70–2.20 and the reason is always named: pace, goaltending, absences or conditions. In ice hockey overtime and the shootout count; in football only regulation time. Spread picks call the winning margin: Lakers −4.5 wins if the Lakers win by five or more.
Virtus Bologna – OlympiacosEuroLeague	Basketball🏀	Over 165.5 pointsOver/Under 165.5 pointsOdds 1.91 · market 50.0% · our estimate 53% · edge +1.2%i	1.91line moved	Thu, 1 Oct 2026, 21:30Thu 1 Oct21:30morning	Win	96–94 → 190 points, line 165.5
		The teams' 10-match total points averages are 173.1 and 173.4, which slightly supports the Over. Olympiacos' fifth match in seven days tempers the estimate.
The teams' 10-match total points averages are 173.1 and 173.4, which slightly supports the Over. Olympiacos' fifth match in seven days tempers the estimate.
Hapoel Tel Aviv – Real MadridEuroLeague	Basketball🏀	Under 175.5 pointsOver/Under 175.5 pointsOdds 1.91 · market 50.0% · our estimate 54% · edge +3.1%i	1.91CLV ±0.0 %	Thu, 1 Oct 2026, 19:00Thu 1 Oct19:00afternoon	Loss	102–98 → 200 points, line 175.5
		The average totals in the augmented 10-match samples are 171.5 and 169.1 points. Hapoel's several absences and Real's second EuroLeague match in under 48 hours lean the estimate towards the Under.
The average totals in the augmented 10-match samples are 171.5 and 169.1 points. Hapoel's several absences and Real's second EuroLeague match in under 48 hours lean the estimate towards the Under.
Saksa – SerbiaUEFA Nations League	Football⚽	Under 3.5 goalsOver/Under 3.5 goals · PinnacleOdds 1.85 · market 52.3% · our estimate 57% · edge +5.5%i	1.85	Thu, 1 Oct 2026, 21:45Thu 1 Oct21:45afternoon	Win	2–0 → 2 goals, line 3.5
		Germany's five-match goal total has been only 2.2 per match, and key players are missing from both attacks. The estimate leans towards Under 3.5 goals.
Germany's five-match goal total has been only 2.2 per match, and key players are missing from both attacks. The estimate leans towards Under 3.5 goals.