Wednesday 7 Oct 2026 · 17 picks · 9/17 hit · return 112.2%

Hits

9/17

of all published

Return

112.2%

flat-stake singles

Likely

5/8

return 96.9%

Sorceress's pick

1/2

return 275.0%

Totals & spreads

3/7

return 83.1%

Match	Sport	Pick	Odds	Kick-off (Helsinki time)	Status	Result
LikelyOdds 1.30–1.75 · hit more often than value picks, but at short odds one loss wipes out several wins. Edge here is usually near zero or negative – no value edge, nothing is certain.
Paris Basketball – ASVEL Lyon VilleurbanneEuroLeague	Basketball🏀	Paris Basketball to winMatch winner · 1xBetOdds 1.44 · market 67.0% · our estimate 67% · edge -3.5%i	1.44CLV −8.5 %	Wed, 7 Oct 2026, 21:45Wed 7 Oct21:45morning	Loss	Paris Basketball–ASVEL 96–98.
		Paris are home favourites, and ASVEL have started the EuroLeague with a 1–2 record and have been clearly behind Paris in rebounding. However, there is insufficient basis to deviate from the market estimate.
Paris are home favourites, and ASVEL have started the EuroLeague with a 1–2 record and have been clearly behind Paris in rebounding. However, there is insufficient basis to deviate from the market estimate.
Vitoria – ChapecoenseBrasileirão Série A	Football⚽	Vitoria to winMatch winner (1X2) · 1xBetOdds 1.66 · market 57.0% · our estimate 57% · edge -5.4%i	1.66	Thu, 8 Oct 2026, 02:00Thu 8 Oct02:00morning	Win	Vitória–Chapecoense 4–0 (kotivoitto).
		Vitoria are clear home favourites based on the league table and season goal difference. However, the estimate remains close to the market's fair level, so 1.66 is not value.
Vitoria are clear home favourites based on the league table and season goal difference. However, the estimate remains close to the market's fair level, so 1.66 is not value.
Sport – IlvesLiiga	Ice hockey🏒	Ilves to win the matchMatch winner · NordicBetOdds 1.48 · market 64.9% · our estimate 65% · edge -4.0%i	1.48CLV −0.7 %	Wed, 7 Oct 2026, 18:30Wed 7 Oct18:30afternoon	Loss	Sport–Ilves 2–1 (Sport voitti varsinaisella peliajalla).
		Ilves' early-season scoring and results have been clearly stronger than Sport's, and Mantas Armalis starts in goal. Home advantage and match-specific variance in ice hockey keep the estimate in line with the market.
Ilves' early-season scoring and results have been clearly stronger than Sport's, and Mantas Armalis starts in goal. Home advantage and match-specific variance in ice hockey keep the estimate in line with the market.
Pyry – IPKMestis	Ice hockey🏒	IPK to win (incl. overtime and shootout)Match winner · NordicBetOdds 1.35 · market 69.3% · our estimate 69% · edge -6.5%i	1.35CLV −5.0 %	Wed, 7 Oct 2026, 18:30Wed 7 Oct18:30afternoon	Win	Pyry–IPK 3–5 (IPK voitti varsinaisella peliajalla).
		IPK have won five of their six matches this season and have a 20–8 goal record. There is no sourced reason to deviate from the market's fair estimate of 69.3%.
IPK have won five of their six matches this season and have a 20–8 goal record. There is no sourced reason to deviate from the market's fair estimate of 69.3%.
IF Gnistan – FC Inter TurkuVeikkausliiga	Football⚽	FC Inter Turku to winMatch winner (1X2) · PinnacleOdds 1.73 · market 55.8% · our estimate 56% · edge -3.6%i	1.73CLV +0.6 %	Wed, 7 Oct 2026, 19:00Wed 7 Oct19:00afternoon	Loss	0–0 (tasapeli)
		Inter are second in the league and in the title race, but Gnistan's seven-match unbeaten run and two head-to-head wins this season give no reason to raise the away win above the market estimate.
Inter are second in the league and in the title race, but Gnistan's seven-match unbeaten run and two head-to-head wins this season give no reason to raise the away win above the market estimate.
Kennesaw State Owls – Jacksonville State GamecocksNCAA top-25	American football🏈	Jacksonville State Gamecocks to winMatch winner · BetwayOdds 1.69 · market 56.6% · our estimate 57% · edge -4.3%i	1.69CLV −1.2 %	Thu, 8 Oct 2026, 02:00Thu 8 Oct02:00night	Win	Kennesaw State–Jacksonville State 26–27.
		Jacksonville State have started the season 3–2 and have conceded 21.8 points per match. However, the market's fair estimate of 56.6% is also justified by Kennesaw State's home advantage.
Jacksonville State have started the season 3–2 and have conceded 21.8 points per match. However, the market's fair estimate of 56.6% is also justified by Kennesaw State's home advantage.
Washington Capitals – Pittsburgh PenguinsNHL	Ice hockey🏒	Washington Capitals to win (incl. overtime and shootout)Match winner (incl. overtime and shootout) · PinnacleOdds 1.65 · market 59.2% · our estimate 59% · edge -2.3%i	1.65CLV ±0.0 %	Thu, 8 Oct 2026, 02:30Thu 8 Oct02:30night	Win	Washington Capitals–Pittsburgh Penguins 5–3.
		Washington are at home and have confirmed Logan Thompson in goal. Pittsburgh's Arturs Silovs is also confirmed, but the Capitals have had more rest; the estimate is nevertheless kept at market level.
Washington are at home and have confirmed Logan Thompson in goal. Pittsburgh's Arturs Silovs is also confirmed, but the Capitals have had more rest; the estimate is nevertheless kept at market level.
Florida International Panthers – New Mexico State AggiesNCAA top-25	American football🏈	Florida International Panthers to winMatch winner · UnibetOdds 1.40 · market 68.2% · our estimate 68% · edge -4.5%i	1.40CLV +1.4 %	Thu, 8 Oct 2026, 02:35Thu 8 Oct02:35night	Win	Florida International–New Mexico State 22–3.
		FIU have home advantage and a clear rest advantage, and their strong run defence is well suited against NMSU's run-heavy offence. The estimate is nevertheless kept at the market's fair 68.2%.
FIU have home advantage and a clear rest advantage, and their strong run defence is well suited against NMSU's run-heavy offence. The estimate is nevertheless kept at the market's fair 68.2%.
Totals & spreadsOver/under picks call the match's total goals or points, not the winner. Odds are 1.70–2.20 and the reason is always named: pace, goaltending, absences or conditions. In ice hockey overtime and the shootout count; in football only regulation time. Spread picks call the winning margin: Lakers −4.5 wins if the Lakers win by five or more.
Paris Basketball – ASVEL Lyon VilleurbanneEuroLeague	Basketball🏀	Paris Basketball −5.5 pointsHandicap −5.5 · 1xBetOdds 1.92 · market 51.0% · our estimate 53% · edge +1.8%i	1.92line moved	Wed, 7 Oct 2026, 21:45Wed 7 Oct21:45morning	Loss	96–98 → marginaali -2, linja −5,5
		ASVEL's frontcourt is weakened by Mathis Dossou-Yovo's absence, and the team have had the EuroLeague's worst rebounding percentage. Paris have won the last two home H2Hs by 9 and 11 points.
ASVEL's frontcourt is weakened by Mathis Dossou-Yovo's absence, and the team have had the EuroLeague's worst rebounding percentage. Paris have won the last two home H2Hs by 9 and 11 points.
Vitoria – ChapecoenseBrasileirão Série A	Football⚽	Over 2.5 goalsOver/Under 2.5 goals · PinnacleOdds 1.88 · market 51.4% · our estimate 54% · edge +1.5%i	1.88	Thu, 8 Oct 2026, 02:00Thu 8 Oct02:00morning	Win	4–0 → 4 maalia, raja 2,5
		Chapecoense's season record is 1.07 goals scored and 1.96 conceded per game, and both teams had Over 2.5 goals in three of their last five matches.
Chapecoense's season record is 1.07 goals scored and 1.96 conceded per game, and both teams had Over 2.5 goals in three of their last five matches.
Botafogo – Vasco da GamaBrasileirão Série A	Football⚽	Under 2.5 goalsOver/Under 2.5 goals · 1xBetOdds 2.13 · market 45.1% · our estimate 49% · edge +4.4%i	2.13	Thu, 8 Oct 2026, 02:30Thu 8 Oct02:30morning	Loss	1–2 → 3 maalia, raja 2,5
		Vasco kept three clean sheets and Botafogo failed to score three times in their last five. In addition, three of the last five head-to-heads went Under 2.5 goals.
Vasco kept three clean sheets and Botafogo failed to score three times in their last five. In addition, three of the last five head-to-heads went Under 2.5 goals.
Pyry – IPKMestis	Ice hockey🏒	Under 6.5 goalsOver/Under 6.5 goals · Virgin BetOdds 1.91 · market 50.3% · our estimate 56% · edge +7.9%i	1.91CLV −4.2 %	Wed, 7 Oct 2026, 18:30Wed 7 Oct18:30afternoon	Loss	3–5 → 8 maalia, raja 6,5
		IPK have conceded only 9 goals in seven matches, and the teams' average total goals over their last five matches are 4.8 and 5.6. The 6.5 line leans Under.
IPK have conceded only 9 goals in seven matches, and the teams' average total goals over their last five matches are 4.8 and 5.6. The 6.5 line leans Under.
Winnipeg Jets – Colorado AvalancheNHL	Ice hockey🏒	Under 6.5 goalsOver/Under 6.5 goals · 1xBetOdds 1.94 · market 53.1% · our estimate 57% · edge +10.6%i	1.94CLV −1.0 %	Thu, 8 Oct 2026, 02:30Thu 8 Oct02:30night	Win	3–2 → 5 maalia, raja 6,5
		Colorado's average conceded over 10 matches is just 1.5, and the projected Blackwood has started the season with a 91.2% save percentage. Neither team is playing on consecutive days.
Colorado's average conceded over 10 matches is just 1.5, and the projected Blackwood has started the season with a 91.2% save percentage. Neither team is playing on consecutive days.
Golden State Valkyries – Las Vegas AcesWNBA	Basketball🏀	Under 156.5 pointsOver/Under 156.5 points · LeoVegasOdds 1.92 · market 50.3% · our estimate 54% · edge +2.7%i	1.92CLV −1.0 %	Thu, 8 Oct 2026, 04:30Thu 8 Oct04:30night	Loss	83–81 → 164 pistettä, raja 156,5
		Golden State's defence held the Aces to 60 points in the opener, and Las Vegas are short-handed in the backcourt: Loyd is doubtful, while Talbot and Evans are questionable.
Golden State's defence held the Aces to 60 points in the opener, and Las Vegas are short-handed in the backcourt: Loyd is doubtful, while Talbot and Evans are questionable.
Anaheim Ducks – Edmonton OilersNHL	Ice hockey🏒	Over 6.5 goalsOver/Under 6.5 goals · Virgin BetOdds 2.00 · market 52.0% · our estimate 54% · edge +8.0%i	2.00CLV +2.6 %	Thu, 8 Oct 2026, 05:00Thu 8 Oct05:00night	Win	2–5 → 7 maalia, raja 6,5
		The teams' total-goals averages over 10 matches are 6.8 and 7.0. Edmonton's confirmed starter Devon Levi has started the season with an 81.0 save percentage, which slightly supports the Over estimate.
The teams' total-goals averages over 10 matches are 6.8 and 7.0. Edmonton's confirmed starter Devon Levi has started the season with an 81.0 save percentage, which slightly supports the Over estimate.
Sorceress's pickAdded at the administrator's discretion after the model rejected or did not propose it. Tracked separately.
KärpätSm-Liiga	Ice hockey🏒	Eemil ErholtzPlayer to score over 1.6 points · BetsafeNo model estimate for this market	5.50	Wed, 7 Oct 2026, 18:30Wed 7 Oct18:30afternoon	Win	Kärpät–K-Espoo 8–7 ja.; Eemil Erholtz pelasi ja sai 2 syöttöpistettä (0+2).
		Kärpät's first-line stars are on the second line today and although the start to the season has not been as productive as expected, there have already been flashes in recent games. Erholtz's 5.5o odds in particular are very much worth trying.
Kärpät's first-line stars are on the second line today and although the start to the season has not been as productive as expected, there have already been flashes in recent games. Erholtz's 5.5o odds in particular are very much worth trying.
Sport-IlvesSM-Liiga	Ice hockey🏒	Jens LöökePlayer to score over 1.5 points · BetsafeNo model estimate for this market	4.40	Wed, 7 Oct 2026, 18:30Wed 7 Oct18:30afternoon	Loss	Sport–Ilves 2–1; Jens Lööke pelasi, mutta ei saanut tehopistettä (0+0).
		Lööke is starting to find his game, and the two goals in the last match raise expectations that he is hitting form. In addition, Sport’s play has not been convincing, and power-play time may be on offer today. Odds of 4.40 are highly attractive based on Lööke’s recent performances
Lööke is starting to find his game, and the two goals in the last match raise expectations that he is hitting form. In addition, Sport’s play has not been convincing, and power-play time may be on offer today. Odds of 4.40 are highly attractive based on Lööke’s recent performances