Friday 9 Oct 2026 · 26 picks · 9/26 hit · return 62.1%

Hits

9/26

of all published

Return

62.1%

flat-stake singles

Specials

1/1

return 182.0%

Totals & spreads

5/13

return 72.4%

Likely

3/12

return 41.0%

Match	Sport	Pick	Odds	Kick-off (Helsinki time)	Status	Result
LikelyOdds 1.30–1.75 · hit more often than value picks, but at short odds one loss wipes out several wins. Edge here is usually near zero or negative – no value edge, nothing is certain.
FC Nordsjaelland – OB Odense BKSuperliga (DEN)	Football⚽	FC Nordsjaelland to winMatch winner (1X2) · Pinnaclenote: W. Martin, J. Niemiec, P. Therkildsen not in the squadOdds 1.54 · market 62.5% · our estimate 63% · edge -3.8%i	1.54CLV −3.8 %	Fri, 9 Oct 2026, 20:00Fri 9 Oct20:00morning	Loss	0–0 (tasapeli)
		FC Nordsjaelland are home favourites and OB have won only one of their last seven league matches. However, FCN's key absences prevent an estimate higher than the market estimate.
FC Nordsjaelland are home favourites and OB have won only one of their last seven league matches. However, FCN's key absences prevent an estimate higher than the market estimate.
Montpellier – GrenobleLigue 2	Football⚽	Montpellier to winMatch winner (1X2) · Pinnaclenote: A. Lallias, A. N’Gatta, Zé Leite, M. Allegret not in the squadOdds 1.61 · market 59.2% · our estimate 59% · edge -4.7%i	1.61CLV +3.2 %	Fri, 9 Oct 2026, 21:00Fri 9 Oct21:00morning	Win	2–0 (Montpellier voitti)
		Montpellier are clear home favourites and had a long recovery period. Grenoble still have several absences, but some players are returning, so there is no reason to deviate from the market estimate.
Montpellier are clear home favourites and had a long recovery period. Grenoble still have several absences, but some players are returning, so there is no reason to deviate from the market estimate.
Pelicans – KärpätLiiga	Ice hockey🏒	Pelicans to win the matchMatch winner · NordicBetOdds 1.74 · market 55.3% · our estimate 55% · edge -3.8%i	1.74CLV +6.3 %	Fri, 9 Oct 2026, 18:30Fri 9 Oct18:30afternoon	Loss	2–3 JA (Kärpät voitti jatkoajalla)
		Pelicans are narrow favourites at home, but Kärpät's better attacking output evens out the match-up. The estimate is kept at the market's fair 55.3%.
Pelicans are narrow favourites at home, but Kärpät's better attacking output evens out the match-up. The estimate is kept at the market's fair 55.3%.
Ässät – HPKLiiga	Ice hockey🏒	Ässät to win (incl. overtime and shootout)Match winner · 888Odds 1.50 · market 63.4% · our estimate 63% · edge -4.9%i	1.50CLV −2.1 %	Fri, 9 Oct 2026, 18:30Fri 9 Oct18:30afternoon	Loss	2–3 VL (HPK voitti)
		Ässät are justified favourites due to their better goal difference in recent matches, special teams and home advantage. However, the estimate is kept at the market's fair 63.4%.
Ässät are justified favourites due to their better goal difference in recent matches, special teams and home advantage. However, the estimate is kept at the market's fair 63.4%.
Ilves – LukkoLiiga	Ice hockey🏒	Ilves to win the matchMatch winner · PinnacleOdds 1.62 · market 58.7% · our estimate 59% · edge -4.9%i	1.62CLV −0.6 %	Fri, 9 Oct 2026, 18:30Fri 9 Oct18:30afternoon	Loss	1–5 (Lukko voitti)
		Ilves' 10-match goal difference and penalty kill are better than Lukko's, but the baseline market estimate accounts for the advantage sufficiently. The estimate is kept at the market's fair 58.7%.
Ilves' 10-match goal difference and penalty kill are better than Lukko's, but the baseline market estimate accounts for the advantage sufficiently. The estimate is kept at the market's fair 58.7%.
Saski Baskonia – Beşiktaş J.K.EuroLeague	Basketball🏀	Saski Baskonia to winMatch winner · 1xBetOdds 1.75 · market 55.1% · our estimate 58% · edge +1.5%i	1.75CLV +1.8 %	Fri, 9 Oct 2026, 21:30Fri 9 Oct21:30afternoon	Loss	84–92 (Beşiktaş voitti)
		Baskonia get Markus Howard back and the latest preview states that the full squad is available, while Beşiktaş are without Mady Sissoko and DaQuan Jeffries. The home side's estimate is 58%.
Baskonia get Markus Howard back and the latest preview states that the full squad is available, while Beşiktaş are without Mady Sissoko and DaQuan Jeffries. The home side's estimate is 58%.
Borussia Dortmund – Werder BremenBundesliiga	Football⚽	Borussia Dortmund to winMatch winner (1X2) · PinnacleOdds 1.37 · market 70.6% · our estimate 71% · edge -3.3%i	1.37CLV −1.4 %	Fri, 9 Oct 2026, 21:30Fri 9 Oct21:30afternoon	Loss	2–2 (tasapeli)
		Dortmund have started the Bundesliga with four wins and Bremen are without several midfield and attacking options. However, the market's fair estimate of 70.6% is already justified.
Dortmund have started the Bundesliga with four wins and Bremen are without several midfield and attacking options. However, the market's fair estimate of 70.6% is already justified.
Washington Capitals – New York RangersNHL	Ice hockey🏒	Washington Capitals to win (incl. overtime and shootout)Match winner (incl. overtime and shootout) · PinnacleOdds 1.75 · market 55.8% · our estimate 56% · edge -2.4%i	1.75CLV −1.1 %	Sat, 10 Oct 2026, 02:00Sat 10 Oct02:00night	Win	3–1 (Washington Capitals voitti varsinaisella peliajalla)
		Washington have home advantage and confirmed Logan Thompson, but the Rangers' strong early season and Shesterkin balance the matchup. The estimate is kept at the market's fair 55.8%.
Washington have home advantage and confirmed Logan Thompson, but the Rangers' strong early season and Shesterkin balance the matchup. The estimate is kept at the market's fair 55.8%.
Detroit Red Wings – Seattle KrakenNHL	Ice hockey🏒	Detroit Red Wings to win (incl. overtime and shootout)Match winner (incl. overtime and shootout) · PinnacleOdds 1.71 · market 57.0% · our estimate 57% · edge -2.5%i	1.71CLV +1.2 %	Sat, 10 Oct 2026, 02:00Sat 10 Oct02:00night	Loss	3–6 (Seattle Kraken voitti varsinaisella peliajalla)
		Detroit are at home and Larkin's return strengthens the attack, but Daccord's projected goaltending advantage and Detroit's absences keep the estimate at the market's 57%.
Detroit are at home and Larkin's return strengthens the attack, but Daccord's projected goaltending advantage and Detroit's absences keep the estimate at the market's 57%.
Louisville Cardinals – Florida State SeminolesNCAA top-25	American football🏈	Louisville Cardinals to winMatch winner (1X2) · BetwayOdds 1.56 · market 61.1% · our estimate 61% · edge -4.7%i	1.56CLV ±0.0 %	Sat, 10 Oct 2026, 02:00Sat 10 Oct02:00night	Win	44–20 (Louisville Cardinals voitti)
		Louisville are narrow home favourites, but Florida State's better five-game defensive spell balances the matchup. The estimate is kept at the market's fair 61.1%.
Louisville are narrow home favourites, but Florida State's better five-game defensive spell balances the matchup. The estimate is kept at the market's fair 61.1%.
New York Liberty – Atlanta DreamWNBA	Basketball🏀	New York Liberty to winMatch winner (1X2) · UnibetOdds 1.67 · market 57.4% · our estimate 57% · edge -4.1%i	1.67CLV +2.5 %	Sat, 10 Oct 2026, 02:30Sat 10 Oct02:30night	Loss	83–85 (Atlanta Dream voitti)
		New York gain home advantage in a must-win game, but Atlanta lead the series 2–0 and were better at both ends in the regular season. The market's 57.4% is a balanced estimate.
New York gain home advantage in a must-win game, but Atlanta lead the series 2–0 and were better at both ends in the regular season. The market's 57.4% is a balanced estimate.
Washington Huskies – Iowa HawkeyesNCAA top-25	American football🏈	Washington Huskies to winMatch winner (1X2) · BetwayOdds 1.71 · market 55.7% · our estimate 59% · edge +0.9%i	1.71CLV +1.8 %	Sat, 10 Oct 2026, 04:00Sat 10 Oct04:00night	Loss	24–41 (Iowa Hawkeyes voitti)
		Along with home advantage, Washington have a clear QB advantage: Iowa start Jeremy Hecklinski, while Hank Brown is only fit for a possible emergency role. Iowa defend strongly, so their favourite status remains modest.
Along with home advantage, Washington have a clear QB advantage: Iowa start Jeremy Hecklinski, while Hank Brown is only fit for a possible emergency role. Iowa defend strongly, so their favourite status remains modest.
Totals & spreadsOver/under picks call the match's total goals or points, not the winner. Odds are 1.70–2.20 and the reason is always named: pace, goaltending, absences or conditions. In ice hockey overtime and the shootout count; in football only regulation time. Spread picks call the winning margin: Lakers −4.5 wins if the Lakers win by five or more.
SK Brann – Viking FKEliteserien	Football⚽	Under 3.5 goalsOver/Under 3.5 goals · CoolbetOdds 1.89 · market 52.3% · our estimate 58% · edge +9.6%i	1.89CLV +4.7 %	Fri, 9 Oct 2026, 20:00Fri 9 Oct20:00morning	Win	0–2 → 2 maalia, raja 3,5
		Only 2 in Brann's 10-match sample and 5 in Viking's sample went Over 3.5 goals. Brann's low total-goals tempo and the absences for both sides support the Under option.
Only 2 in Brann's 10-match sample and 5 in Viking's sample went Over 3.5 goals. Brann's low total-goals tempo and the absences for both sides support the Under option.
PSV Eindhoven – HeerenveenEredivisie	Football⚽	Under 4.5 goalsOver/Under 4.5 goals · 1xBetOdds 1.78 · market 54.1% · our estimate 59% · edge +5.0%i	1.78CLV +0.6 %	Fri, 9 Oct 2026, 20:00Fri 9 Oct20:00morning	Win	2–0 → 2 maalia, raja 4,5
		The five-goal line is high, and PSV are without several centre-forward and attacking options. At least five goals were seen in only 7/19 matches in the recent samples.
The five-goal line is high, and PSV are without several centre-forward and attacking options. At least five goals were seen in only 7/19 matches in the recent samples.
Málaga – EspanyolLa Liga	Football⚽	Over 2.5 goalsOver/Under 2.5 goals · Pinnaclenote: Kike García not in the squadOdds 2.17 · market 45.6% · our estimate 49% · edge +5.2%i	2.17CLV +8.5 %	Fri, 9 Oct 2026, 22:00Fri 9 Oct22:00morning	Loss	1–1 → 2 maalia, raja 2,5
		Five of Espanyol's seven league matches went Over 2.5 goals, Málaga have conceded 1.71 goals per match, and Salinas, who has played 630 league minutes, is absent from the defence.
Five of Espanyol's seven league matches went Over 2.5 goals, Málaga have conceded 1.71 goals per match, and Salinas, who has played 630 league minutes, is absent from the defence.
Braga – Sporting LisbonPrimeira Liga	Football⚽	Under 2.5 goalsOver/Under 2.5 goals · Pinnaclenote: Z. Debast, Nuno Santos not in the squadOdds 1.88 · market 51.8% · our estimate 56% · edge +4.3%i	1.88CLV +8.4 %	Fri, 9 Oct 2026, 22:15Fri 9 Oct22:15morning	Loss	1–3 → 4 maalia, raja 2,5
		Based on actual results, Braga's goal expectation over nine matches has been low: 1.0 scored and 0.6 conceded, and the team have kept clean sheets in five home matches.
Based on actual results, Braga's goal expectation over nine matches has been low: 1.0 scored and 0.6 conceded, and the team have kept clean sheets in five home matches.
Tigres – TolucaLiga MX	Football⚽	Under 2.5 goalsOver/Under 2.5 goals · TipicoOdds 2.15 · market 44.3% · our estimate 52% · edge +11.8%i	2.15CLV −2.3 %	Sat, 10 Oct 2026, 06:00Sat 10 Oct06:00morning	Loss	–
		Tigres' 10-match sample has a total-goals average of just 1.4 and Under 2.5 has occurred 9/10 times. Toluca's attacking strength limits the estimate, but Under remains a narrow favourite.
Tigres' 10-match sample has a total-goals average of just 1.4 and Under 2.5 has occurred 9/10 times. Toluca's attacking strength limits the estimate, but Under remains a narrow favourite.
Kiekko-Vantaa – HermesMestis	Ice hockey🏒	Under 5.5 goalsOver/Under 5.5 goals · LadbrokesOdds 2.05 · market 45.8% · our estimate 53% · edge +8.6%i	2.05CLV ±0.0 %	Fri, 9 Oct 2026, 18:30Fri 9 Oct18:30afternoon	Loss	4–4 vmk → 9 maalia, raja 5,5
		Six of K-Vantaa's eight matches and five of Hermes' seven have stayed under 5.5 goals. The first head-to-head of the season ended 2–1, and the starters are confirmed.
Six of K-Vantaa's eight matches and five of Hermes' seven have stayed under 5.5 goals. The first head-to-head of the season ended 2–1, and the starters are confirmed.
Olympiacos – Anadolu EfesEuroLeague	Basketball🏀	Olympiacos −10.5 pointsHandicap −10.5 · Unibet (SE)Odds 1.93 · market 50.4% · our estimate 55% · edge +5.2%i	1.93CLV −1.0 %	Fri, 9 Oct 2026, 21:15Fri 9 Oct21:15afternoon	Win	89–66 → marginaali +23, linja −10,5
		Efes are without Mike James, Isaia Cordinier and Georgios Papagiannis, while Olympiacos get Nikola Milutinov back. Montero's uncertainty tempers the estimate.
Efes are without Mike James, Isaia Cordinier and Georgios Papagiannis, while Olympiacos get Nikola Milutinov back. Montero's uncertainty tempers the estimate.
Saski Baskonia – Beşiktaş J.K.EuroLeague	Basketball🏀	Saski Baskonia −2.5 pointsHandicap −2.5 · 888Odds 2.00 · market 48.1% · our estimate 54% · edge +8.0%i	2.00CLV +3.1 %	Fri, 9 Oct 2026, 21:30Fri 9 Oct21:30afternoon	Loss	84–92 → marginaali -8, linja −2,5
		Baskonia have a full line-up and home advantage, while Beşiktaş are without DaQuan Jeffries and Mady Sissoko. Baskonia have also had time to rest and train in Vitoria.
Baskonia have a full line-up and home advantage, while Beşiktaş are without DaQuan Jeffries and Mady Sissoko. Baskonia have also had time to rest and train in Vitoria.
Borussia Dortmund – Werder BremenBundesliiga	Football⚽	Under 3.5 goalsOver/Under 3.5 goals · 1xBetOdds 1.97 · market 50.5% · our estimate 53% · edge +4.4%i	1.97CLV +13.9 %	Fri, 9 Oct 2026, 21:30Fri 9 Oct21:30afternoon	Loss	2–2 → 4 maalia, raja 3,5
		Dortmund have conceded only 1.0 goals per match in a 10-match sample, and Bremen's eight confirmed absences particularly reduce their attacking and midfield options.
Dortmund have conceded only 1.0 goals per match in a 10-match sample, and Bremen's eight confirmed absences particularly reduce their attacking and midfield options.
Union Santa Fe – Defensa y JusticiaArgentiinan Primera	Football⚽	Over 2.5 goalsOver/Under 2.5 goals · 1xBetnote: L. Vargas, F. Román, L. Souto, A. Molinas not in the squadOdds 2.16 · market 44.5% · our estimate 49% · edge +5.8%i	2.16CLV +0.9 %	Sat, 10 Oct 2026, 03:45Sat 10 Oct03:45afternoon	Loss	0–2 → 2 maalia, raja 2,5
		8 of Unión's 10 matches and 6 of Defensa's 10 matches went over 2.5 goals. In addition, both teams have players missing from defence, which raises the Over estimate.
8 of Unión's 10 matches and 6 of Defensa's 10 matches went over 2.5 goals. In addition, both teams have players missing from defence, which raises the Over estimate.
Washington Capitals – New York RangersNHL	Ice hockey🏒	Under 5.5 goalsOver/Under 5.5 goals · PinnacleOdds 2.05 · market 47.6% · our estimate 52% · edge +5.6%i	2.05CLV +1.5 %	Sat, 10 Oct 2026, 02:00Sat 10 Oct02:00night	Win	3–1 → 4 maalia, raja 5,5
		Shesterkin and Thompson are confirmed starters, with both save percentages above 92%. The Rangers have conceded only 1.6 goals per game over five games.
Shesterkin and Thompson are confirmed starters, with both save percentages above 92%. The Rangers have conceded only 1.6 goals per game over five games.
Detroit Red Wings – Seattle KrakenNHL	Ice hockey🏒	Over 5.5 goalsOver/Under 5.5 goals · 1xBetOdds 1.76 · market 55.0% · our estimate 58% · edge +2.1%i	1.76CLV +0.6 %	Sat, 10 Oct 2026, 02:00Sat 10 Oct02:00night	Win	3–6 → 9 maalia, raja 5,5
		Detroit's games have produced 6.9 goals per game over the last 10-game sample and Seattle's 6.0. Weak penalty kills and Seattle's defensive absence tilt towards the over.
Detroit's games have produced 6.9 goals per game over the last 10-game sample and Seattle's 6.0. Weak penalty kills and Seattle's defensive absence tilt towards the over.
San Jose State Spartans – Wyoming CowboysNCAA top-25	American football🏈	San Jose State Spartans −4.5 pointsHandicap −4.5 · PinnacleOdds 1.97 · market 49.4% · our estimate 54% · edge +6.4%i	1.97CLV −1.5 %	Sat, 10 Oct 2026, 04:00Sat 10 Oct04:00night	Loss	13–16 → marginaali -3, linja −4,5
		SJSU's passing offence has been clearly more efficient than Wyoming's, and the Cowboys are playing their fourth away game of the season and a second consecutive week on the road.
SJSU's passing offence has been clearly more efficient than Wyoming's, and the Cowboys are playing their fourth away game of the season and a second consecutive week on the road.
SpecialsSpecials call an individual player's statistic: points, goals, assists, shots, power-play points or saves in the NHL; points, goals, assists or shots in Liiga; and points, rebounds, assists or threes in the NBA. A pick is published only with a confirmed line-up and voided if the player does not play. Odds are 1.60–2.20 and the reason is always named.
Mikael GranlundWinnipeg Jets – Anaheim Ducks · NHL	Ice hockey🏒	Mikael Granlund Over 0.5 pointsPoints Over/Under 0.5 · UnibetOdds 1.82 · market 51.1% · our estimate 57% · edge +3.7%i	1.82CLV +1.7 %	Sat, 10 Oct 2026, 03:00Sat 10 Oct03:00night	Win	Granlund teki ottelussa 1+1
		Last 20: 11/20 over 0.5 · TOI 19:52 Granlund is projected on the second line and PP1. He has recorded a point in 6/10 recent games, and the empirical weighted Over estimate is 57%.
Last 20: 11/20 over 0.5 · TOI 19:52 Granlund is projected on the second line and PP1. He has recorded a point in 6/10 recent games, and the empirical weighted Over estimate is 57%.