Sunday 11 Oct 2026 · 29 picks · 23/29 hit · return 138.0%

Hits

23/29

of all published

Return

138.0%

flat-stake singles

Value picks

1/1

return 252.0%

Likely

14/15

return 145.8%

Totals & spreads

8/13

return 120.2%

MatchSportPickOddsKick-off (Helsinki time)StatusResult
LikelyOdds 1.30–1.75 · hit more often than value picks, but at short odds one loss wipes out several wins. Edge here is usually near zero or negative – no value edge, nothing is certain.
Southampton – PortsmouthChampionship (ENG)FootballSouthampton to winMatch winner (1X2) · LeoVegas (SE)note: J. Murphy, C. Ogilvie not in the squadOdds 1.60 · market 59.6% · our estimate 62% · edge -0.8%i1.60CLV +1.9 %Sun, 11 Oct 2026, 14:00morningWin1–0 (Southampton voitti)

Southampton have won all four home matches this season, while Portsmouth's squad is depleted by six confirmed absences. The derby nature and draws in recent years limit confidence.

Motherwell – CelticScottish PremiershipFootballCeltic to winMatch winner (1X2) · Pinnaclenote: C. Osmand, Yang Hyun-Jun, C. Carter-Vickers not in the squadOdds 1.60 · market 60.2% · our estimate 60% · edge -3.7%i1.60CLV +2.6 %Sun, 11 Oct 2026, 14:00morningWin0–2 (Celtic voitti)

Celtic are favourites on squad quality and league position, but a poor run of results and absences prevent the estimate from being lifted above the market's fair 60.2%.

Rennes – AuxerreLigue 1FootballRennes to winMatch winner (1X2) · 1xBetOdds 1.48 · market 66.5% · our estimate 67% · edge -1.6%i1.48CLV −1.4 %Sun, 11 Oct 2026, 18:15morningWin4–1 (Rennes voitti)

Rennes have been strong at home and Auxerre's away defence vulnerable, but the absences and home advantage already appear to be included in the market estimate of 66.5%.

Real Betis – CA OsasunaLa LigaFootballReal Betis to winMatch winner (1X2) · 1xBetnote: Aimar Oroz not in the squadOdds 1.57 · market 62.6% · our estimate 63% · edge -1.7%i1.57CLV +2.7 %Sun, 11 Oct 2026, 19:30morningWin5–2 (Real Betis voitti)

Betis have started the league 5–1–1 and Osasuna 2–2–3. Osasuna's more extensive absences support the home favourites, but Betis' Porto match in three days increases rotation risk.

Flamengo – FluminenseBrasileirão Série AFootballFlamengo to winMatch winner (1X2) · 1xBetOdds 1.50 · market 64.1% · our estimate 64% · edge -3.9%i1.50CLV −2.6 %Sun, 11 Oct 2026, 23:30morningWin1–0 (Flamengo voitti)

Flamengo are top of the table and stronger in baseline quality, but the derby, key absences and both teams' Libertadores workload keep the estimate at the market's fair 64.1%.

Brondby IF – LyngbySuperliga (DEN)FootballBrondby IF to winMatch winner (1X2) · Casumonote: S. Colyn, O. Snorre not in the squadOdds 1.73 · market 53.9% · our estimate 56% · edge -4.0%i1.73CLV +3.7 %Sun, 11 Oct 2026, 17:00afternoonWin5–2 (Brondby voitti)

In addition to home advantage, Brondby benefit from the suspension of Lyngby's Simon Colyn: Colyn is his team's joint top scorer with three league goals. Brondby's run of four defeats tempers the estimate.

Real Sociedad – Deportivo La CoruñaLa LigaFootballReal Sociedad to winMatch winner (1X2) · 1xBetnote: J. Aramburu, P. Aubameyang, Z. Eddahchouri, Marc Casadó not in the squadOdds 1.66 · market 59.4% · our estimate 59% · edge -1.4%i1.66CLV −6.8 %Sun, 11 Oct 2026, 17:15afternoonWin3–2 (Real Sociedad voitti)

Real Sociedad are clear favourites at home, but the teams being level on points and the hosts' defensive absences prevent an estimate higher than the market estimate.

Almería – LeganésSegunda DivisiónFootballAlmería to winMatch winner (1X2) · 1xBetnote: Rubén Peña, Rodrigo Ely not in the squadOdds 1.66 · market 57.8% · our estimate 58% · edge -4.0%i1.66CLV −5.8 %Sun, 11 Oct 2026, 17:15afternoonWin3–0 (Almeria voitti)

Almería have started the league 6–0–2 and won all four home matches. The squad situation provides insufficient grounds to deviate from the market's 57.8%.

BK Hacken – Örgryte ISAllsvenskanFootballBK Hacken to winMatch winner (1X2) · Coolbetnote: Jerome Tibbling Ugwo, B. Engdahl, Filip Ohman not in the squadOdds 1.32 · market 71.2% · our estimate 71% · edge -6.0%i1.32CLV ±0.0 %Sun, 11 Oct 2026, 17:30afternoonWin3–0 (BK Hacken voitti)

Häcken are clear favourites based on the league table, recent results and ÖIS's absences, but the sources provide insufficient reason to deviate from the market's fair estimate of 71.2%.

SC Freiburg – FC Schalke 04BundesliigaFootballSC Freiburg to winMatch winner (1X2) · 1xBetOdds 1.74 · market 56.6% · our estimate 57% · edge -1.5%i1.74CLV +3.6 %Sun, 11 Oct 2026, 18:30afternoonWin2–1 (SC Freiburg voitti)

Freiburg's strong start to the season and home advantage support their status as favourites, but the absences provide insufficient source-based grounds to lift the estimate above the market's 56.6%.

Seattle Seahawks – San Francisco 49ersNFLAmerican footballSeattle Seahawks to winMatch winner · Unibet (SE)Odds 1.63 · market 59.6% · our estimate 61% · edge -1.4%i1.63CLV −0.6 %Sun, 11 Oct 2026, 23:25nightLossSan Francisco 49ers voitti Seattle Seahawksin 32–29.

Seattle have home advantage and the 49ers are without star defender Nick Bosa, but San Francisco's 4–0 start keeps the estimate close to the market.

Arizona Cardinals – Detroit LionsNFLAmerican footballDetroit Lions to winMatch winner · CoolbetOdds 1.44 · market 68.0% · our estimate 68% · edge -2.1%i1.44CLV −0.7 %Sun, 11 Oct 2026, 23:25nightWinDetroit Lions voitti Arizona Cardinalsin 45–21.

Detroit's offence has been clearly more efficient than Arizona's, but the Lions' defensive and line absences prevent us from raising the estimate above the market's 68%.

Palmeiras – CorinthiansBrasileirão Série AFootballPalmeiras to winMatch winner (1X2) · 1xBetnote: Kaio César, R. Garro not in the squadOdds 1.66 · market 57.8% · our estimate 60% · edge -1.2%i1.66CLV −1.2 %Sun, 11 Oct 2026, 23:30nightWin4–1 (Palmeiras voitti)

Palmeiras have been clearly more consistent than Corinthians in recent matches, and the visitors' midfield is weakened by the suspensions of Garro and Kaio César. The derby draw risk keeps the estimate modest.

New York Rangers – Vancouver CanucksNHLIce hockeyNew York Rangers to winMatch winner · Paddy PowerOdds 1.38 · market 69.5% · our estimate 70% · edge -4.1%i1.38CLV ±0.0 %Mon, 12 Oct 2026, 01:00nightWinNew York Rangers voitti Vancouver Canucksin 6–2.

The Rangers' defensive and special-teams figures are clearly better, and Vancouver are playing on consecutive days. Shesterkin's absence and Garand's small sample prevent us from raising the market estimate.

St. Louis City SC – LA GalaxyMLSFootballSt. Louis City SC to winMatch winner (1X2) · 1xBetnote: K. Hiebert, H. Lozano not in the squadOdds 1.53 · market 63.3% · our estimate 63% · edge -3.3%i1.53CLV +0.7 %Mon, 12 Oct 2026, 02:00nightWin6–2 (St. Louis City voitti)

St. Louis are second in the league and on a long unbeaten league run, but 1.53 already reflects their strong status as favourites. Galaxy are fighting for a play-off place, so I consider the market distribution justified.

Value picksOur estimate beats the market
Standard Liege – CharleroiPro League (BEL)FootballCharleroi to winMatch winner (1X2) · Pinnaclenote: J. Homawoo, M. El Hankouri not in the squadBlind estimate 45% · market 38.5% · edge +13.4%i2.52CLV −3.1 %Sun, 11 Oct 2026, 14:30morningWin0–1 (Charleroi voitti)

Why we think the market is wrong: Charleroi's start to the season and goal level are stronger than Standard's.

Charleroi's start to the season and goal level are stronger than Standard's. Standard's defensive absences and empty stands tilt the estimate towards the away side, although the long break between matches tempers the edge.

Totals & spreadsOver/under picks call the match's total goals or points, not the winner. Odds are 1.70–2.20 and the reason is always named: pace, goaltending, absences or conditions. In ice hockey overtime and the shootout count; in football only regulation time. Spread picks call the winning margin: Lakers −4.5 wins if the Lakers win by five or more.
Torku Konyaspor – BasaksehirSüper LigFootballUnder 2.5 goalsOver/Under 2.5 goals · 1xBetnote: E. Destan, E. Višća not in the squadOdds 2.10 · market 46.2% · our estimate 50% · edge +5.0%i2.10CLV −3.2 %Sun, 11 Oct 2026, 13:30morningWin0–0 → 0 maalia, raja 2,5

Konyaspor's total-goal average over 9 matches is 2.3, and regular starter İbrahimoğlu is absent. Başakşehir's attacking form nevertheless limits the under estimate to 50%.

FC St. Pauli – Karlsruher SC2. BundesliigaFootballUnder 3.5 goalsOver/Under 3.5 goals · Tipiconote: M. Broschinski, M. Mathisen not in the squadOdds 1.75 · market 54.6% · our estimate 60% · edge +5.0%i1.75CLV +9.4 %Sun, 11 Oct 2026, 14:30morningWin2–0 → 2 maalia, raja 3,5

For both teams, only 2/6 league matches have exceeded 3.5 goals, and KSC striker Moritz Broschinski is absent. Defensive absences nevertheless temper the under estimate to 60%.

Elche CF – Celta VigoLa LigaFootballOver 2.5 goalsOver/Under 2.5 goals · 1xBetnote: F. Redondo, C. Starfelt, Miguel Román not in the squadOdds 2.07 · market 47.6% · our estimate 51% · edge +5.6%i2.07CLV +1.5 %Sun, 11 Oct 2026, 15:00morningLoss0–0 → 0 maalia, raja 2,5

Elche's 10-match goal record supports a high-scoring game, and the absences of Redondo and Celta's Starfelt and Román weaken defensive structures. Celta's strong recent defence tempers the estimate.

Hull City – EvertonValioliigaFootballUnder 2.5 goalsOver/Under 2.5 goals · PinnacleOdds 1.89 · market 52.3% · our estimate 59% · edge +11.5%i1.89CLV +12.0 %Sun, 11 Oct 2026, 16:00morningLoss2–2 → 4 maalia, raja 2,5

The goal profile in both teams' recent matches is low: Hull's Over 2.5 rate is 2/10 and Everton's is 4/10. The long recovery time removes the impact of fixture congestion.

Cagliari – JuventusSerie AFootballUnder 2.5 goalsOver/Under 2.5 goals · Pinnaclenote: M. Locatelli, K. Thuram, J. Boga, A. Milik not in the squadOdds 1.88 · market 52.5% · our estimate 57% · edge +7.2%i1.88CLV +5.6 %Sun, 11 Oct 2026, 21:45morningWin1–1 → 2 maalia, raja 2,5

In both 10-match samples, only 3/10 exceeded 2.5 goals. Cagliari have conceded only two goals in five league matches, and Juventus' attack is weakened by several absences.

Grêmio – InternacionalBrasileirão Série AFootballUnder 2.5 goalsOver/Under 2.5 goals · LeoVegasnote: S. Rochet, A. Sanabria not in the squadOdds 1.80 · market 53.6% · our estimate 57% · edge +2.6%i1.80CLV +18.0 %Sun, 11 Oct 2026, 23:30morningWin1–1 → 2 maalia, raja 2,5

Both teams' total-goal average over 10 matches is 2.3 and Over 2.5 has landed in only 5/10. The high-pressure Gre-Nal tilts the estimate slightly towards the under market.

Lecce – BolognaSerie AFootballUnder 2.5 goalsOver/Under 2.5 goals · Coolbetnote: J. Odgaard, S. Mbangula, E. Holm not in the squadOdds 1.76 · market 56.2% · our estimate 62% · edge +9.1%i1.76CLV +27.3 %Sun, 11 Oct 2026, 16:00afternoonLoss1–2 → 3 maalia, raja 2,5

Only 3 of Bologna's 10 matches exceeded 2.5 goals, while Lecce were limited to five. The absences of Stulic and Bologna's Odgaard and Mbangula also weaken the attacking options.

Crystal Palace – Nottingham ForestValioliigaFootballUnder 2.5 goalsOver/Under 2.5 goals · 1xBetnote: J. Mateta, D. Henderson, Igor Jesus not in the squadOdds 1.98 · market 49.8% · our estimate 54% · edge +6.9%i1.98CLV ±0.0 %Sun, 11 Oct 2026, 16:00afternoonLoss3–1 → 4 maalia, raja 2,5

Over 2.5 goals occurred in only 3/10 of Forest's matches, and both sides are missing an important forward. Palace's defensive absences limit the Under estimate to 54%.

BK Hacken – Örgryte ISAllsvenskanFootballUnder 3.5 goalsOver/Under 3.5 goals · Coolbetnote: B. Engdahl, Filip Ohman, Jerome Tibbling Ugwo not in the squadOdds 1.95 · market 50.3% · our estimate 58% · edge +13.1%i1.95CLV −3.1 %Sun, 11 Oct 2026, 17:30afternoonWin3–0 → 3 maalia, raja 3,5

Only 5 of the teams' last 20 matches exceeded 3.5 goals. Örgryte's Tibbling, who scored in the 4–3 derby in July, is also absent.

Padova – CarrareseSerie BFootballUnder 2.5 goalsOver/Under 2.5 goals · Casumonote: L. Carissoni, L. Zanimacchia, C. Dagba, N. Bonfanti not in the squadOdds 1.99 · market 49.1% · our estimate 56% · edge +11.4%i1.99CLV −3.5 %Sun, 11 Oct 2026, 18:15afternoonWin0–2 → 2 maalia, raja 2,5

Carrarese have scored only 0.4 goals per match and only 2 of their 10 matches have exceeded the line. Predicted attacking absences support the under direction.

Modena – Hellas VeronaSerie BFootballOver 2.5 goalsOver/Under 2.5 goals · LeoVegas (SE)note: D. Adorni not in the squadOdds 1.95 · market 50.1% · our estimate 54% · edge +5.3%i1.95CLV +1.1 %Sun, 11 Oct 2026, 20:30afternoonWin3–2 → 5 maalia, raja 2,5

8 of Verona's 10 matches and 4 of Modena's 8 exceeded 2.5 goals; in the five-match Serie B samples, there were 4/5 and 3/5 overs respectively.

Bahia – MirassolBrasileirão Série AFootballUnder 2.5 goalsOver/Under 2.5 goals · Tipiconote: Léo Vieira, N. Acevedo, José Aldo not in the squadOdds 2.20 · market 44.2% · our estimate 50% · edge +10.0%i2.20CLV −6.5 %Mon, 12 Oct 2026, 01:30afternoonWin1–0 → 1 maalia, raja 2,5

Under 2.5 occurred a combined 11/20 times in both 10-match samples. Mirassol are also missing attacking options, which supports the under direction.

Philadelphia Flyers – Carolina HurricanesNHLIce hockeyOver 5.5 goalsOver/Under 5.5 goals · 1xBetOdds 1.86 · market 52.6% · our estimate 55% · edge +2.3%i1.86CLV +0.5 %Mon, 12 Oct 2026, 02:00nightLoss1–4 → 5 maalia, raja 5,5

Both are playing on consecutive days, Kochetkov's save percentage is 89.5 and the Flyers have conceded 4.0 goals per game. Konecny's absence tempers the estimate.