Monday 5 Oct 2026 · Overnight games · published Mon, 5 Oct 2026, 21:00 (Helsinki time)
Tips 2026-10-05
Result: 2/3 hit · return 118.3%
| Match | Sport | Pick | Odds | Kick-off (Helsinki time) | Status | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LikelyOdds 1.30–1.75 · hit more often than value picks, but at short odds one loss wipes out several wins. Edge here is usually near zero or negative – no value edge, nothing is certain. | ||||||
| Pittsburgh Penguins – Winnipeg JetsNHL | Ice hockey | Pittsburgh Penguins to winMatch winner (1X2) · William HillOdds 1.57 · market 60.3% · our estimate 60% · edge -5.3%i | 1.57CLV ±0.0 % | Tue, 6 Oct 2026, 02:30 | Loss | 2–3 (Winnipeg Jets voitti) |
| Dallas Stars – San Jose SharksNHL | Ice hockey | Dallas Stars to winMatch winner (1X2) · BetssonOdds 1.51 · market 63.0% · our estimate 63% · edge -4.9%i | 1.51CLV ±0.0 % | Tue, 6 Oct 2026, 03:00 | Win | 5–0 (Dallas Stars voitti) |
Totals & spreadsOver/under picks call the match's total goals or points, not the winner. Odds are 1.70–2.20 and the reason is always named: pace, goaltending, absences or conditions. In ice hockey overtime and the shootout count; in football only regulation time. Spread picks call the winning margin: Lakers −4.5 wins if the Lakers win by five or more. | ||||||
| Boston Bruins – Ottawa SenatorsNHL | Ice hockey | Under 5.5 goalsOver/Under 5.5 goals · 1xBetOdds 2.04 · market 48.4% · our estimate 54% · edge +10.2%i | 2.04CLV −5.0 % | Tue, 6 Oct 2026, 02:30 | Win | 1–4 → 5 maalia, raja 5,5 |
The focus of the night's schedule shifts to the NHL ice, with several interesting ice hockey matches being played in North America. There are match-ups featuring teams from both the Eastern and Western conferences, and the games begin early on Tuesday morning (Helsinki time).
Likely
Likely selections are favourites whose chance of winning we consider to be at least as high as the market does. They land more often than value selections, but short odds mean that one loss wipes out several wins. The edge in this band is generally around zero or negative, because the odds include the bookmaker's margin – the long-term return is at market level, not above it.
Dallas Stars – San Jose Sharks: Dallas Stars to win @ 1.51
Statistics. Dallas have started 0–2–0 and scored one goal in two matches, while San Jose are 2–0–0 and have scored nine goals. Dallas's SAT is 50.6%, and the Stars have collected points in nine consecutive head-to-head matches (8–0–1); the season sample is still only two matches. Situation. Jake Oettinger and Yaroslav Askarov have been confirmed as starting goaltenders. Neither is playing back-to-back, as both teams last played on Saturday 3.10.; Matt Duchene is out for Dallas, while San Jose have several reported absences. Estimate. Dallas Stars: 63% · San Jose Sharks: 37% Why we are betting. Dallas's home advantage and strong head-to-head record make them a justified favourite, but the Sharks' sharp start and the Stars' scoring problems prevent us from raising our estimate above the market's fair 63%.
Odds 1.51 · market 63.0% · our estimate 63% · edge -4.9%
Pittsburgh Penguins – Winnipeg Jets: Pittsburgh Penguins to win @ 1.57
Statistics. Pittsburgh have started the season 2–0–0 and scored 13 goals while conceding five in two matches; Winnipeg are 1–0–1 and beat Detroit 3–2 on Sunday. Stevenson has posted a 90.6% save percentage in five NHL matches and Murashov 89.7% in five NHL appearances; last season's AHL figures were 91.2% for Stevenson and 91.9% for Murashov. Situation. Clay Stevenson and Sergei Murashov have been confirmed as starting goaltenders. Winnipeg are playing back-to-back after the Detroit match, while Pittsburgh last played on Saturday; Connor Hellebuyck is suspended for the Jets, and Bryan Rust is out for the Penguins. Estimate. Pittsburgh Penguins: 60.3% · Winnipeg Jets: 39.7% Why we are betting. Pittsburgh are supported by home advantage, a rest advantage and Winnipeg's goaltending situation, but the Penguins are also starting an inexperienced goaltender. Our estimate matches the market's fair distribution, so we make no separate adjustment.
Odds 1.57 · market 60.3% · our estimate 60% · edge -5.3%
Over/Under and handicap
In Over/Under selections, the bet is on the match's total number of goals or points, not the winner. The odds are 1.70–2.20 and the rationale is always stated: match pace, goaltenders, absences or conditions. In ice hockey, overtime and the shootout are included, while in football only regular time counts. In handicap selections, the bet is on the winning margin: Lakers −4.5 wins if the Lakers win by at least five.
Boston Bruins – Ottawa Senators: Under 5.5 goals @ 2.04
Statistics. Boston's total-goals average over their last 10 matches is 4.8 and Ottawa's is 6.1. Boston have scored and conceded 2.4 goals per match, while Ottawa have scored 3.7 and conceded 2.4. Situation. Jeremy Swayman and Linus Ullmark have been confirmed as starters; their early-season save percentages are 94.7 and 93.1. Neither team is playing on consecutive days, but Artem Zub and Jake Sanderson are absent from Ottawa's defence. Estimate. Over: 46% · Under: 54% Why we are betting. Boston's low-scoring profile and the strong start to the season by both confirmed starters push our estimate below the market. Deviation from the market: Boston's low goal totals in recent matches, along with the strong early-season save figures of confirmed starters Swayman and Ullmark, shift our estimate below the market.
Odds 2.04 · market 48.4% · our estimate 54% · edge +10.2%
Specials
No special bets in this publication.
Bet responsibly and only with money you can afford to lose. Tips are opinions, not promises of profit.