Tips 2026-10-06

Tonight's games are focused on NHL ice hockey, with several early-season fixtures taking place on North American ice. There are evenly matched encounters between teams from different conferences, with games starting overnight and in the early morning Helsinki time.

Likely

Likely selections are favourites whose win we consider at least as likely as the market does. They land more often than value selections, but short odds mean that one loss wipes out several wins. The edge in this band is generally around zero or negative, as the odds include the bookmaker's margin – the long-term return is at market level, not above it.

Chicago Blackhawks – St Louis Blues: St Louis Blues to win (incl. overtime and shootout) @ 1.70

Statistics. Chicago have started the season 0–3–0 and have been outscored 5–15, while St Louis have started 1–1–0 and the goals are 5–6. Joel Hofer stopped all 25 shots in his season opener; Spencer Knight's save percentage over two games is 87.5, but the samples are still small. Situation. Hofer is confirmed as the Blues' starter. Knight is projected to start for Chicago based on morning skate, but has not yet been confirmed; the Blackhawks are without Connor Bedard. Neither team is on a back-to-back. Estimate. Chicago Blackhawks: 43% · St Louis Blues: 57% Why we are backing it. Bedard's absence from Chicago's line-up and a favourable goaltending situation for the Blues put our estimate for St Louis slightly above the market anchor. Deviation from the market: Connor Bedard's absence from Chicago's line-up and a favourable goaltending situation for the Blues lift St Louis's win probability slightly above the market anchor.

Odds 1.73 · market 54.8% · our estimate 57% · edge -1.4%

Seattle Kraken – Vegas Golden Knights: Vegas Golden Knights to win (incl. overtime and shootout) @ 1.61

Statistics. Both teams have started the season with a 2–1–0 record. Seattle have scored 13 goals in three games, and Joey Daccord has stopped 56/58 shots (96.6%) in two winning games; Vegas's Jack Eichel has registered a point in each of all three games. Situation. Joey Daccord is Seattle's likely starter based on morning skate. Vegas's Adin Hill is projected but not confirmed; neither team is playing on consecutive days. Estimate. Seattle Kraken: 40.1% · Vegas Golden Knights: 59.9% Why we are backing it. Vegas are the more likely winners thanks to their strong top-end quality, but Daccord's form and Seattle's good start prevent the estimate from being raised above the market's fair 59.9%.

Odds 1.61 · market 59.9% · our estimate 60% · edge -3.6%

Toronto Maple Leafs – Nashville Predators: Toronto Maple Leafs to win @ 1.67

Statistics. Toronto have started the season with a 1–2–0 record and scored six goals in three games; Nashville are 1–1–0 and most recently beat Dallas 2–1. Saros has posted a 93.3% save percentage over two games and Stolarz 96.3% in one game, so the goaltenders' season samples are still very small. Situation. Juuse Saros and Anthony Stolarz are confirmed as the starting goaltenders. Nashville's Justus Annunen is on the injured list, while Toronto are without Dakota Joshua and Max Domi; neither team is in a back-to-back situation. Estimate. Toronto Maple Leafs: 56.8% · Nashville Predators: 43.2% Why we are backing it. Toronto are the home favourites, but the confirmed goaltenders and line-ups provide no concrete source-based reason to deviate from the market's fair distribution.

Odds 1.67 · market 56.8% · our estimate 57% · edge -5.1%

Over/Under and Handicap

No over/under selections in this publication.

Specials

Specials involve betting on an individual player's statistic: in the NHL, points, goals, assists, shots, power-play points or saves; in Liiga, points, goals, assists or shots; and in the NBA, points, rebounds, assists or three-pointers. A selection is published only with a confirmed line-up and is void if the player does not play. Odds are 1.60–2.20 and the rationale is always stated.

Buffalo Sabres – Minnesota Wild: Jack Quinn Over 2.5 shots @ 1.95

Statistics. Quinn has gone over the 2.5-shot line in 7/10 recent games, and the average for the period is 3.1. He is recording 11.6 shots/60 minutes; his ice time has risen to 17:38 over the last five games. Situation. Quinn is in NHL.com's projected Buffalo line-up on the second line and in a bumper role on PP1. Jesper Wallstedt is confirmed as Minnesota's starter, and the Wild have allowed 23.5 shots per game early in the season; the line-up is projected, not confirmed. Estimate. Over: 55% · Under: 45% Why we are backing it. The 7/10 over rate in recent games and increased ice time support the over selection, but the Wild's shot defence and Quinn's move to a bumper role lower the estimate slightly from the 57% empirical baseline. Deviation from the market: The estimate is two percentage points below the 57% empirical figure because Minnesota have allowed only 23.5 shots per game early in the season and Quinn was moved from the flank to a bumper role on PP1.

Odds 1.95 · market 47.4% · our estimate 55% · edge +7.2%

Toronto Maple Leafs – Nashville Predators: Steven Stamkos Over 0.5 points @ 1.73

Statistics. Stamkos has registered a point in 7/10 recent games and 12/20 recent games, and the weighted empirical over probability is 63%. His ice time has risen to 20:00 minutes over the last five games, compared with an 18:23 average in the longer sample. Situation. Stamkos is in the projected first line for the evening with Ryan O’Reilly and Alex Kerfoot, as well as on PP1. Anthony Stolarz is confirmed as Toronto's starter; Nashville are not playing on consecutive days. Estimate. Over: 63% · Under: 37% Why we are backing it. A strong first-line and PP1 role supports the empirical 63% estimate, but Stolarz's confirmed start prevents the estimate from being raised above the sample. Deviation from the market: The estimate remains at the 63% empirical level because the first-line and PP1 role is balanced by confirmed Anthony Stolarz in goal for Toronto.

Odds 1.70 · market 54.6% · our estimate 63% · edge +7.1%

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