Tips 2026-10-08

There is plenty of NHL ice hockey on the overnight schedule, with several North American teams starting their matches early on Friday Helsinki time. The offering is complemented by an NCAA American football clash, so there is plenty to follow both on the ice and on the gridiron.

Likely

Likely selections are favourites whose chance of winning we consider at least as high as the market does. They land more often than value selections, but short odds mean that one loss wipes out several wins. The edge in this band is usually around zero or negative, because the odds include the bookmaker's margin – long-term return is at market level, not above it.

St Louis Blues – San Jose Sharks: St Louis Blues to win the match @ 1.69

Statistics. St. Louis have started the season with a 1–2–0 record and San Jose 2–1–0; the Sharks managed 13 shots in their previous match against Dallas and lost 0–5. Hofer's figures over two matches are 1.01 goals conceded and 95.5%, while Nedeljkovic, who will make his first start of the season, posted 2.87 and 89.6% last season. Situation. Joel Hofer and Alex Nedeljkovic have been confirmed as starters. Macklin Celebrini is day-to-day with a lower-body injury and could miss out; neither team is playing on consecutive days. Estimate. St Louis Blues 58.5% · San Jose Sharks 41.5% Why we are betting. The goaltending rotation and San Jose's line-up concern tilt the estimate towards St. Louis: Hofer has started strongly, Nedeljkovic gets his first start of the season and Celebrini's fitness is uncertain.

Odds 1.69 · market 56.6% · our estimate 59% · edge -1.1%

New York Islanders – Chicago Blackhawks: New York Islanders to win @ 1.56

Statistics. The Islanders started the season with a 1–2–0 record and Chicago 1–3–0. Ilya Sorokin has stopped 61/63 shots in two matches (96.8%, 1.02 conceded/match), while Spencer Knight made 26 saves in Chicago's 4–2 win on Tuesday; broader up-to-date even-strength Corsi/Fenwick, PDO and PP/PK figures were not available from the sources used. Situation. Sorokin has been confirmed as the Islanders' starter; Spencer Knight is projected, not confirmed, for Chicago. Chicago are without Connor Bedard, Andrew Mangiapane and Teuvo Teräväinen, while the Islanders are missing Mathew Barzal and Alexander Romanov. Neither is playing on consecutive days. Estimate. New York Islanders: 63% · Chicago Blackhawks: 37% Why we are betting. The goaltending rotation and Chicago's attacking line-up absences lift the Islanders' estimate slightly above the market's fair level. The Islanders' own key absences keep the gap modest.

Odds 1.56 · market 61.6% · our estimate 63% · edge -1.7%

Ottawa Senators – Philadelphia Flyers: Ottawa Senators to win @ 1.59

Statistics. Ottawa have started the season with a 2–1–0 record, while Philadelphia are 0–2–2 and have a 5–17 goal difference after four matches. Among the starters, Linus Ullmark has a 94.9% save percentage and Joseph Woll 92.9%, both from a two-match sample. Situation. Linus Ullmark and Joseph Woll have been confirmed as starting goaltenders. Ullmark returns after a minor issue; Ottawa are not playing back-to-back, but this is their third match in four days. Estimate. Ottawa Senators: 60.4% · Philadelphia Flyers: 39.6% Why we are betting. Ottawa are clearly the more likely winner based on the confirmed Ullmark and the teams' early-season results and goal differences. Woll's strong start and Ottawa's congested schedule, however, keep the estimate exactly at the market's fair probability.

Odds 1.59 · market 60.4% · our estimate 60% · edge -4.0%

Montréal Canadiens – Nashville Predators: Montréal Canadiens to win (incl. overtime and shootout) @ 1.65

Statistics. Both teams have started the season with a 1–1–1 record. Saros has posted a 90.7% save percentage in three matches, while confirmed Montreal starter Jacob Fowler recorded 90.8% in 17 NHL matches last season; Nashville have started 3/8, or 37.5%, on the power play. Situation. Jacob Fowler has been confirmed as Montreal's starter in place of injured Sam Montembeault. Juuse Saros is projected, not confirmed; neither team is playing on consecutive days, and Nashville's Justus Annunen is on the injured list. Estimate. Montréal Canadiens: 58.2% · Nashville Predators: 41.8% Why we are betting. Montreal are home favourites, but the confirmed goaltending information gives no reason to deviate from the market's fair estimate of 58.2%. The Fowler–Saros match-up is effectively neutral relative to the market anchor.

Odds 1.65 · market 58.2% · our estimate 58% · edge -4.0%

Arkansas State Red Wolves – South Alabama Jaguars: Arkansas State Red Wolves to win @ 1.69

Statistics. Arkansas State's five-match scoring averages are 24.0 scored and 23.4 conceded, South Alabama's are 35.4 and 31.6. Arkansas State are 2–0 at home and South Alabama 0–2 away; the Red Wolves lead the head-to-head 8–6 and have narrowly won the last two meetings. Situation. Trey Owens and Jared Hollins have been identified as the teams' current first-choice quarterbacks, and there are no quarterbacks on the latest absence list. Both have five days of recovery; Kenyon Clay is doubtful in Arkansas State's running game and D. Spencer is out, while South Alabama are missing three wide receivers and one tight end. Estimate. Arkansas State Red Wolves: 56.6% · South Alabama Jaguars: 43.4% Why we are betting. Arkansas State's home advantage and South Alabama's 0–2 away record make the Red Wolves narrow favourites. The Jaguars' attacking advantage and A-State's running-game line-up concerns, however, balance the match-up, so the estimate matches the market's fair distribution.

Odds 1.69 · market 56.6% · our estimate 57% · edge -4.3%

Value selections

For value selections, our estimate exceeds the market, meaning we believe the odds are too high. They land less often than favourites, and results fluctuate significantly in the short term – the benefit only becomes visible over dozens of selections if our estimates are correct.

Buffalo Sabres – Dallas Stars: Dallas Stars to win @ 1.86

Statistics. Buffalo have started 2–1–0 and Dallas 1–2–0; Buffalo have held 65.4% of expected goals at even strength. Oettinger's save percentage is .943 and Luukkonen's .784 from a two-start sample; both power plays are still at 0%, Dallas's penalty kill is 77.8% and Buffalo's 66.7%. Situation. Jake Oettinger has been confirmed as Dallas's starter. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen is projected as Buffalo's starter, but not yet confirmed; neither team is playing on consecutive days. Dallas are without Matt Duchene and Joel Kiviranta, Buffalo without Alex Lyon, Conor Timmins and Jason Zucker. Estimate. Buffalo Sabres: 45% · Dallas Stars: 55% Why we are betting. The goaltending rotation tilts the estimate towards Dallas: confirmed Oettinger's early-season save percentage is clearly better than Luukkonen's, although the two-start sample should be heavily regressed.

Odds 1.86 · market 52.4% · our estimate 55% · edge +2.3%

Over/Under and handicap

Over/Under selections concern the match's total goals or points, not the winner. Odds are 1.70–2.20 and the rationale is always stated: match tempo, goaltenders, absences or conditions. In ice hockey, overtime and shootout are included; in football, only regulation time counts. Handicap selections concern the winning margin: Lakers −4.5 wins if the Lakers win by at least five.

New York Islanders – Chicago Blackhawks: Under 5.5 goals @ 2.05

Statistics. Over the last 10-match sample, the Islanders have scored 2.3 and conceded 3.1 goals per match; Chicago's figures are 2.6 and 4.1. Early-season special-teams figures are PP 18.2% and PK 83.3% for NYI, and PP 11.1% and PK 63.6% for Chicago. Situation. Sorokin has been confirmed as starter and his early-season save percentage is 96.8; NHL.com projects Söderblom as Chicago's starter, but Daily Faceoff lists Knight as unconfirmed. Chicago are without Bedard, Teräväinen and Mangiapane, the Islanders without Barzal and Romanov; neither is playing on consecutive days. Estimate. Over: 50% · Under: 50% Why we are betting. Sorokin's strong early season and the significant attacking absences for both teams lift the under estimate above the market. Chicago's poor defensive and penalty-killing figures, as well as the uncertain goaltending situation, however, keep the edge small. Deviation from the market: The estimate leans more towards the under than the market due to Sorokin's strong early season and key absences weakening both attacks.

Odds 2.05 · market 47.3% · our estimate 50% · edge +2.5%

Specials

Specials concern an individual player's statistic: in the NHL, points, goals, assists, shots, power-play points or saves; in Liiga, points, goals, assists or shots; and in the NBA, points, rebounds, assists or threes. The selection is published only with a confirmed line-up and is void if the player does not play. Odds are 1.60–2.20 and the rationale is always stated.

Boston Bruins – Utah Mammoth: David Pastrnak under 3.5 shots @ 1.68

Statistics. Pastrnak stayed under the line in 6/10 recent matches, and his shot average and median were 3.0. Shots/60 was 8.8, and ice time over the last five matches, 19:45, was below the 20-match average of 20:42. Situation. Pastrnak is in the projected first line and PP1; the line-up is projected, not confirmed. Utah have allowed 22.3 shots per match early in the season, and Sebastian Cossa is the likely starter. Estimate. Over: 35% · Under: 65% Why we are betting. Utah's early-season shot defence supports the under, and Pastrnak's ice time has declined in recent matches. The empirical 63% under rate is raised modestly to 65% in the estimate. Deviation from the market: The estimate leans two percentage points higher than the empirical under probability because Utah have allowed only 22.3 shots per match early in the season.

Odds 1.68 · market 55.6% · our estimate 65% · edge +9.2%

Tampa Bay Lightning – Minnesota Wild: Nikita Kucherov over 2.5 shots @ 1.68

Statistics. Kucherov exceeded the line 5 times in the last 10 matches and 14 times in the last 20 matches. The 20-match average is 3.1 shots, shots/60 9.3 and ice time over the last five is 21:15. Situation. Kucherov is in the projected line-up on the first line and PP1. Minnesota's confirmed starter Jesper Wallstedt has started the season with a .933 save percentage; the Wild are allowing 25.0 shots per match in a small early-season sample, but Brock Faber is out. Estimate. Over: 63% · Under: 37% Why we are betting. The estimate remains at the empirical 63%: increased ice time and a strong attacking role support the over, but Wallstedt's form and Minnesota's low shot volume prevent an increase. Deviation from the market: The estimate remains at the 63% empirical baseline, as Kucherov's first-line and PP1 role is unchanged and his increased ice time is offset by Minnesota's low shot volume and Wallstedt's strong start.

Odds 1.68 · market 56.3% · our estimate 63% · edge +5.8%

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