Monday 12 Oct 2026 · Overnight games · published Mon, 12 Oct 2026, 21:00 (Helsinki time)
Tips 2026-10-12
Result: 1/4 hit · return 52.5%
| Match | Sport | Pick | Odds | Kick-off (Helsinki time) | Status | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LikelyOdds 1.30–1.75 · hit more often than value picks, but at short odds one loss wipes out several wins. Edge here is usually near zero or negative – no value edge, nothing is certain. | ||||||
| Los Angeles Rams – Buffalo BillsNFL | American football | Los Angeles Rams to winMatch winner (1X2) · MarathonbetOdds 1.68 · market 56.3% · our estimate 56% · edge -5.5%i | 1.68CLV +1.3 % | Tue, 13 Oct 2026, 03:15 | Loss | Los Angeles Rams 34–37 Buffalo Bills jatkoajan jälkeen; Buffalo voitti. |
Totals & spreadsOver/under picks call the match's total goals or points, not the winner. Odds are 1.70–2.20 and the reason is always named: pace, goaltending, absences or conditions. In ice hockey overtime and the shootout count; in football only regulation time. Spread picks call the winning margin: Lakers −4.5 wins if the Lakers win by five or more. | ||||||
| Coritiba – BotafogoBrasileirão Série A | Football | Over 2.5 goalsOver/Under 2.5 goals · LeoVegasnote: Bruno Melo, Lucas Ronier, J. Barrera not in the squadOdds 1.71 · market 56.8% · our estimate 61% · edge +4.3%i | 1.71CLV +23.5 % | Mon, 12 Oct 2026, 22:00 | Loss | 1–1 → 2 maalia, raja 2,5 |
| New Jersey Devils – Ottawa SenatorsNHL | Ice hockey | Under 5.5 goalsOver/Under 5.5 goals · 1xBetOdds 2.10 · market 46.4% · our estimate 51% · edge +7.1%i | 2.10CLV −17.6 % | Tue, 13 Oct 2026, 02:00 | Win | 1–4 → 5 maalia, raja 5,5 |
| Minnesota Wild – Vegas Golden KnightsNHL | Ice hockey | Under 5.5 goalsOver/Under 5.5 goals · CasumoOdds 2.14 · market 45.6% · our estimate 49% · edge +4.9%i | 2.14CLV −1.4 % | Tue, 13 Oct 2026, 03:00 | Loss | 4–2 → 6 maalia, raja 5,5 |
Monday evening and the night leading into Tuesday feature football from Brazil as well as North American professional leagues in ice hockey and American football. The schedule offers plenty of interesting match-ups, both on NHL rinks and in the NFL's prime time game.
Likely bets
Likely bets are favourites whose chance of winning we consider at least as high as the market does. They land more often than value bets, but short odds mean that one loss wipes out several wins. The edge in this band is generally around zero or negative, as the odds include the bookmaker's margin – the long-term return is at market level, not above it.
Los Angeles Rams – Buffalo Bills: Los Angeles Rams to win @ 1.68
Statistics. Both have scored 29.7 points per game across their last 10 games. The Rams have conceded 25.0 and the Bills 22.0 points per game; both samples include 4 games from the 2026 season and 6 from the 2025 season. Situation. Matthew Stafford and Josh Allen have been identified as the QB1 players, and neither has an out or doubtful status on the NFL report. Ed Oliver and Josh Palmer are absent for Buffalo; Rams' Quentin Lake is questionable but, according to the club, improving. Both last played on 4.10., so there is no rest advantage to separate them. Estimate. Los Angeles Rams: 56.3% · Buffalo Bills: 43.8% Why we are betting it. The Rams are home favourites and Buffalo's absences support the selection, but the Bills' better defensive average balances the match-up. No concrete reason unpriced by the market was found to deviate from the fair market estimate.
Odds 1.68 · market 56.3% · our estimate 56% · edge -5.5%
Over/Under and Handicap
In Over/Under bets, you bet on the match's total number of goals or points, not the winner. Odds are 1.70–2.20 and the rationale is always specified: game pace, goaltenders, absences or conditions. In ice hockey, overtime and the shootout count; in football, only regulation time counts. In Handicap bets, you bet on the winning margin: Lakers −4.5 wins if the Lakers win by at least five.
New Jersey Devils – Ottawa Senators: Under 5.5 goals @ 2.10
Statistics. In New Jersey's 10-game sample, games have produced an average of 5.9 goals (2.5 scored, 3.4 conceded), while Ottawa's five games have produced 5.2 (3.0 and 2.2). Ottawa's penalty kill is 78.3%, and Ullmark's save percentage in four games is 94.2. Situation. Starting goaltenders Nico Daws and Linus Ullmark are confirmed. Neither team is playing on consecutive nights; Zub is on IR and Sanderson is day-to-day in Ottawa's defence, while Evangelista's availability for New Jersey is uncertain due to illness. Estimate. Over: 49% · Under: 51% Why we are betting it. Ullmark's strong start to the season and Ottawa's average of just 2.2 goals conceded pull the estimate below the market's Over bias. Daws' small and poor sample keeps the gap moderate. Deviation from the market: Ottawa's confirmed in-form Ullmark and the team's average of 2.2 goals conceded shift the estimate more towards Under than the market, although Daws increases the opposing risk.
Odds 2.10 · market 46.4% · our estimate 51% · edge +7.1%
Minnesota Wild – Vegas Golden Knights: Under 5.5 goals @ 2.14
Statistics. Minnesota have scored 3.0 and conceded 1.8 goals per game in five games, Vegas 3.8 and 2.3 in six games. Special teams have been effective, but Minnesota's penalty kill has stopped 94.1% of opposition power plays. Situation. Jesper Wallstedt is confirmed in goal for Minnesota: his save percentage is 93.6 and his goals-against average 1.78. Carter Hart (91.0%) is projected for Vegas, but not yet confirmed; neither team is playing a second game on consecutive days. Estimate. Over: 51% · Under: 49% Why we are betting it. Wallstedt's strong start to the season and Minnesota conceding only 1.8 goals per game raise our estimate for the Under outcome slightly above the market. Deviation from the market: The estimate leans Under versus the market, particularly due to Wallstedt's confirmed start and Minnesota's strong goaltending and defensive play early in the season.
Odds 2.14 · market 45.5% · our estimate 49% · edge +4.9%
Coritiba – Botafogo: Over 2.5 goals @ 1.71
Statistics. Coritiba's average total goals across their last 10 games has been 3.2, and Over 2.5 has landed 7/10 times. In Botafogo's games, the average has been 2.9 goals and the line was exceeded 5/10 times. Situation. The starting line-ups have been announced: Coritiba start with Pedro Morisco and a defensive line of Bustos–Maicon–Rodrigo Moledo–Felipe Jonatan, Botafogo with Gabriel Batista and a line of Mateo Ponte–Ferraresi–Justino–Alex Telles. Coritiba are without, among others, Bruno Melo and Lucas Ronier, while Botafogo are without Kaio Pantaleão and J. Barrera; neither has consecutive game days. Estimate. Over: 61% · Under: 39% Why we are betting it. Coritiba's high goal total in recent games and both sides' changed defensive lines make the likelihood of at least three goals higher than the market estimate. Deviation from the market: The estimate leans Over versus the market because Coritiba's high goal total in recent games and both sides' changed defensive lines increase the risk of at least three goals.
Odds 1.71 · market 56.8% · our estimate 61% · edge +4.3%
Specials
No specials in this publication.
Bet responsibly and only with money you can afford to lose. Tips are opinions, not promises of profit.