Tips 2026-10-13

The overnight schedule features NHL hockey with a full slate of seven games, as teams from both the Eastern and Western Conferences go head-to-head. Several interesting measures of relative strength are on offer, with the games starting overnight and in the early morning Finnish time.

Likely

Likely picks are favourites whose chances of winning we consider at least as high as the market does. They land more often than value bets, but short odds mean that one loss wipes out several wins. The edge in this band is generally around zero or negative, because the odds include the bookmaker's margin – the long-term return is at market level, not above it.

Montréal Canadiens – Buffalo Sabres: Montréal Canadiens to win (incl. overtime) @ 1.65

Statistics. Buffalo have started the season with a 3–3–0 record and Montréal are 2–2–1. Jacob Fowler has saved 45/48 shots (93.8%), Montréal's power play is 1/17 and Buffalo's power play is 3/9 over the last three games; Corsi, Fenwick and PDO figures are unavailable from the sources used. Situation. Jacob Fowler has been confirmed as Montréal's starter; Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen is projected, but not confirmed, for Buffalo, and he played 33.34 after replacing Ellis on Monday. Buffalo are playing back-to-back without Rasmus Dahlin, while Montréal have been rested since Saturday but are without Mike Matheson, Ivan Demidov and Samuel Montembeault. Estimate. Montréal Canadiens 59.5% · Buffalo Sabres 40.5% Why we are betting. Buffalo's consecutive game day, Dahlin's absence and Montréal's confirmed Fowler tilt our estimate towards the home side more than the market anchor. However, odds of 1.65 remain slightly below the threshold indicated by our estimate. Deviation from the market: Buffalo's consecutive game day and Rasmus Dahlin's absence, along with the confirmed Fowler–projected Luukkonen goaltending situation, increase Montréal's probability.

Odds 1.65 · market 57.7% · our estimate 60% · edge -1.8%

Anaheim Ducks – Calgary Flames: Anaheim Ducks to win incl. overtime @ 1.61

Statistics. Anaheim have started the season 4–1–0 and Calgary 0–5–0. Calgary's goal difference over five games is 8–27, and Anaheim won the teams' previous meeting on 10.10 by 4–2; Anaheim have won five of the last six head-to-head meetings. Situation. Daily Faceoff project Devin Cooley and Lukas Dostal as the goaltenders, but neither has been confirmed. Neither team is playing on consecutive days; Anaheim have several forward absences, while Calgary are without Jonathan Huberdeau and Samuel Honzek. Estimate. Anaheim Ducks: 60.6% · Calgary Flames: 39.4% Why we are betting. Anaheim are clear favourites based on results and goal difference, but the absences and unconfirmed goaltenders provide no source-based reason to raise the estimate above the market's fair 60.6%.

Odds 1.61 · market 60.6% · our estimate 61% · edge -2.4%

Utah Mammoth – Toronto Maple Leafs: Utah Mammoth to win incl. overtime @ 1.64

Statistics. Utah have started 4–2–0, scoring 3.67 and conceding 2.50 goals per game; their power play is 40%. Toronto are 3–2–1 with 3.33–2.83 goals per game, a 26.3% power play and a 95% penalty kill. Vejmelka's save percentage is 90.7 and Stolarz's is 90.4. Situation. Toronto start with confirmed Anthony Stolarz. Utah's Karel Vejmelka is projected, but not confirmed, based on the morning skate. Neither team is playing on consecutive days; Utah return home from a five-game road trip and Toronto conclude their three-game road trip. Estimate. Utah Mammoth: 59.4% · Toronto Maple Leafs: 40.6% Why we are betting. Utah's home advantage and stronger early-season goal difference support their favourite status, but Toronto's special teams play and the near-even goaltending matchup provide no source-based reason to deviate from the market's fair estimate.

Odds 1.64 · market 59.4% · our estimate 59% · edge -2.6%

New York Rangers – Tampa Bay Lightning: Tampa Bay Lightning to win (incl. overtime) @ 1.65

Statistics. Tampa Bay are 4–1–0 and the Rangers 5–2–0; the Rangers' goal difference is 23–13. Dylan Garand's save percentage is 94.5 and his GAA is 1.20, while Vasilevskiy's corresponding figures are 89.2% and 2.29. Situation. Garand has been confirmed as the Rangers' starter, with Shesterkin and Korpisalo sidelined. Vasilevskiy is projected, but not confirmed; neither team is playing on consecutive days. Estimate. New York Rangers: 41.8% · Tampa Bay Lightning: 58.2% Why we are betting. Tampa are on a four-game winning streak, but Garand's strong start to the season balances the goaltending matchup. No concrete, unpriced reason to deviate from the market's fair estimate of 58.2% was found.

Odds 1.65 · market 58.2% · our estimate 58% · edge -4.0%

New York Islanders – Vancouver Canucks: New York Islanders to win (incl. overtime) @ 1.50

Statistics. The Islanders have started 2–3–0 and the Canucks 2–5–0; Vancouver's goal difference after seven games is 24–35. The Canucks' penalty kill has operated at 52%. Sorokin's season save percentage is 93.7 and Meriläinen's is 93.2. Situation. Ilya Sorokin has been confirmed as the Islanders' starter. Leevi Meriläinen is projected, but not confirmed, for Vancouver; neither team is on a back-to-back, but the Canucks are playing their third game in four days and the fourth game of their road trip. Estimate. New York Islanders 63.4% · Vancouver Canucks 36.6% Why we are betting. The Islanders are justified favourites due to Sorokin and Vancouver's poor start to the season, but projecting Meriläinen instead of Lankinen removes the indication of a goaltending edge. Therefore, the estimate is kept exactly at the market's fair probability.

Odds 1.50 · market 63.4% · our estimate 63% · edge -4.9%

Value bets

For value bets, our estimate exceeds the market's, meaning that we believe the odds are too high. They land less often than favourites, and results fluctuate considerably in the short term – the benefit only becomes apparent over dozens of bets if our estimates are correct.

Columbus Blue Jackets – Florida Panthers: Columbus Blue Jackets to win @ 1.80

Statistics. Florida have started the season 2–2–2 and Columbus 2–2–0. The Panthers have scored 12 goals in six games; on Monday, they lost 3–5 to Buffalo and had 23 shots. Talbot's season figures are 1–0–0, 1.85 GAA and 90.9%, Schmid's 0–1–1, 4.12 GAA and 86.8%. Situation. Cam Talbot has been confirmed as Columbus's starter; Akira Schmid is projected, but not confirmed, for Florida. Schmid played 38.08 after Markström was injured on Monday, and Florida are now playing back-to-back as well as their third game in four days. Florida are without Aleksander Barkov, Brad Marchand and Jonah Gadjovich; Columbus also have absences, the most significant being Ivan Provorov and Dante Fabbro. Estimate. Columbus Blue Jackets: 61% · Florida Panthers: 39% Why we are betting. The rest advantage, confirmed Talbot and Florida's back-to-back, along with Schmid's consecutive goaltending workload, all favour Columbus. The absences of Barkov and Marchand also weaken the Panthers' attack. Deviation from the market: Florida's back-to-back and third game in four days, Schmid's consecutive goaltending workload, and the absences of Barkov and Marchand all favour Columbus.

Odds 1.80 · market 53.2% · our estimate 61% · edge +9.8%

Nashville Predators – Vegas Golden Knights: Nashville Predators to win @ 2.13

Statistics. Vegas have started 5–2–0 and Nashville 2–1–2; average goals are 3.67–2.57 for Vegas and 2.80–2.60 for Nashville. Saros's save percentage is 91.5 and Hill's 88.6; power-play figures are Nashville 31.6% and Vegas 30.4%. Situation. Juuse Saros and Adin Hill are projected starters, not yet confirmed (Daily Faceoff). Vegas are playing their second road game on consecutive nights after losing 2–4 to Minnesota on Monday, while Nashville last played on Saturday. Estimate. Nashville Predators: 51% · Vegas Golden Knights: 49% Why we are betting. Nashville's home advantage, the projected goaltending matchup in which Saros is stronger than Hill, and Vegas's road back-to-back make the home side narrow favourites against a Vegas team with a strong roster.

Odds 2.13 · market 45.8% · our estimate 51% · edge +8.6%

Over/Under and Handicap

No Over/Under bets in this publication.

Specials

No special bets in this publication.

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