Tips 2026-10-13

Tuesday's schedule is highlighted by EuroLeague basketball games, with plenty of high-quality European evening contests on offer. Several matches important for league points will also be played in football's English Championship. The offering is focused on the evening, so there is time to follow the day's games at leisure before kick-off.

Likely winners

Likely winners are favourites whose chances of winning we consider to be at least as high as the market does. They land more often than value bets, but short odds mean that one loss wipes out several wins. The edge in this band is generally around zero or negative, as the odds include the bookmaker's margin – the long-term return is at market level, not above it.

Valencia Basket – Olympiacos: Olympiacos to win @ 1.70

Statistics. Both have scored 92.8 points per game in the given 10-game sample. Olympiacos have conceded 78.0 and Valencia 87.3 points per game; their records in the current EuroLeague season are Valencia 4–0 and Olympiacos 3–1. Situation. Both squads are expected to be fully available. Neither is playing on consecutive days, but Valencia are recovering from Sunday's physically demanding away game against Barcelona, while Olympiacos rested five rotation players on the same day. Estimate. Valencia Basket: 42% · Olympiacos: 58% Why we are backing it. Our estimate leans slightly towards Olympiacos due to their rotation and recovery advantage: Valencia played a tough away game around 48 hours earlier, while Olympiacos rested five rotation players. Deviation from the market: Due to the schedule and rotation, our estimate leans towards Olympiacos: Valencia are recovering from a demanding away game in around 48 hours, while Olympiacos rested five rotation players on Sunday.

Odds 1.70 · market 56.4% · our estimate 58% · edge -1.4%

KK Partizan NIS – Panathinaikos: Panathinaikos to win @ 1.41

Statistics. In the EuroLeague's official 10-game sample, Partizan scored 86.1 and conceded 83.0 points per game; Panathinaikos scored 87.4 and conceded 80.4. Their records in the current EuroLeague season are 3–1 for Partizan and 4–0 for Panathinaikos. Situation. Derek Willis is unavailable for Partizan, but according to the coach the other 13 rotation players are available. Panathinaikos have Juancho Hernangómez back, but Kendrick Nunn and Kostas Sloukas are out; neither side is playing a back-to-back game. Estimate. KK Partizan NIS: 31.5% · Panathinaikos: 68.5% Why we are backing it. Panathinaikos are clearly the more likely winners based on their strong start to the season and better points differential over 10 games. Belgrade home advantage and the absences of Nunn and Sloukas prevent us from raising our estimate above the market's fair 68.5%.

Odds 1.41 · market 68.5% · our estimate 69% · edge -3.4%

Birmingham City – Preston North End: Birmingham City to win @ 1.65

Statistics. Birmingham have 14 points after nine league matches and Preston have four; their goal differences are 13–11 and 8–16. In the given 10-game sample, Birmingham scored 1.4 and conceded 1.7 goals per game, with Preston's respective figures at 0.8 and 2.0; Over 2.5 goals landed in 7/10 matches for both. Situation. Both played three days ago and will next play in four days. Birmingham have three players out; Preston have two out and T. Carroll is doubtful, but up-to-date information on minutes or roles was unavailable to weight the absences. Estimate. Birmingham City 58.5% · Draw 23.6% · Preston North End 17.9% Why we are backing it. Birmingham are justified favourites due to their results at the start of the league season and Preston's poor goal difference. However, no concrete, sourced reason was found to deviate from the market's fair distribution, so the estimate is kept exactly at the market anchor.

Odds 1.65 · market 58.5% · our estimate 59% · edge -3.5%

Pallacanestro Olimpia Milano – Real Madrid: Real Madrid to win @ 1.52

Statistics. In the sample of the last 10 EuroLeague games, Milano have scored 85.5 and conceded 92.1 points per game, with Real Madrid's respective figures at 87.9 and 84.6. Real's points differential is +3.3 points per game and Milano's is −6.6; the points include overtime. Situation. Milano have their full roster available, but three players are left out due to rotation selections. Gaby Deck and Usman Garuba are missing for Real; neither side is playing on consecutive days, as the teams' previous games were on Sunday. Estimate. Pallacanestro Olimpia Milano: 36.5% · Real Madrid: 63.5% Why we are backing it. Real Madrid are the more likely winners due to their better points profile, but considering the away court and the absences of Deck and Garuba, the sources give no reason to deviate from the market's fair estimate of 63.5%.

Odds 1.52 · market 63.5% · our estimate 64% · edge -3.5%

ASVEL Lyon Villeurbanne – KK Crvena zvezda: KK Crvena zvezda to win @ 1.69

Statistics. In the EuroLeague's official 10-game sample, ASVEL have scored 83.3 and conceded 89.9 points per game; Crvena zvezda's respective figures are 83.5 and 83.2. The teams' previous EuroLeague meeting in Lyon on 10.4.2026 ended in a 106–93 win for Crvena zvezda. Situation. Crvena zvezda travel to Lyon without centres Johnathan Motley and Ebuka Izundu as well as Stefan Miljenovicia; Mathis Dossou-Yovo and TyTy Washington are absent for ASVEL. Neither side is playing on consecutive days, and no specific rest arrangements were reported in the latest previews. Estimate. ASVEL Lyon Villeurbanne: 42.9% · KK Crvena zvezda: 57.1% Why we are backing it. Crvena zvezda's defensive figure and last season's away win support their status as favourites, but the lack of centres prevents us from raising our estimate above the market's fair 57.1%.

Odds 1.69 · market 57.1% · our estimate 57% · edge -3.5%

Over/Under and Handicap

In Over/Under bets, the prediction concerns the match's total goals or points, not the winner. Odds are 1.70–2.20 and the rationale is always specified: match tempo, goalkeepers, absences or conditions. In ice hockey, overtime and the shootout are included; in football, only regulation time counts. In Handicap bets, the prediction concerns the winning margin: Lakers −4.5 wins if the Lakers win by at least five.

Bristol City – Blackburn Rovers: Over 2.5 goals @ 2.07

Statistics. In Bristol City's 10-game sample, the average total goals figure is 2.7 and Over 2.5 goals has landed 5/10 times. In Blackburn's matches, the average is 3.0 and there have been 9/10 overs. Situation. Dickie is out for Bristol, while Eile and Tolaj are doubtful; Blackburn are without six players and Wharton is doubtful. Ohashi's absence weakens Blackburn's attack, but defensive absences and the team's high-scoring games keep the Over option interesting; both have three rest days. Estimate. Over: 51% · Under: 49% Why we are backing it. 9/10 of Blackburn's matches have gone over the line, and both teams' recent goal totals support an Over estimate slightly higher than the market's. Deviation from the market: Our estimate leans over the market because 9/10 of Blackburn's matches have gone over the line and the teams' 10-game average total goals figures are 3.0 and 2.7.

Odds 2.07 · market 47.7% · our estimate 51% · edge +5.6%

Saski Baskonia – Dubai Basketball: Dubai Basketball −5.5 points @ 2.00

Statistics. In Baskonia's 10-game sample, their averages are 92.5 points scored and 95.9 conceded, while Dubai's respective figures are 83.2 and 86.4. Baskonia's record in the current EuroLeague season is 1–3 and Dubai's is 2–2. Situation. Baskonia played at home on Monday 12.10. and go into the match without a rest day; according to the latest preview, Markus Howard has been left out of the match squad. Dubai played in Cluj on Sunday and travelled to Vitoria, so the away side's fatigue has also been taken into account. Estimate. Dubai Basketball −5.5: 52% · Saski Baskonia +5.5: 48% Why we are backing it. The schedule leans our estimate towards Dubai: Baskonia are playing on consecutive days, and Howard's absence reduces their backcourt options. Dubai's own away fatigue keeps the deviation from the market modest.

Odds 2.00 · market 49.1% · our estimate 52% · edge +4.0%

Fenerbahce SK – Žalgiris: Fenerbahce SK −6.5 points @ 1.96

Statistics. In Fenerbahçe's 10-game sample, their averages are 81.7 points scored and 78.0 conceded, with Žalgiris' respective figures at 83.1 and 83.3. Fenerbahçe have won all three of their EuroLeague home games this season by at least 10 points, so −6.5 has covered in 3/3. Situation. Fenerbahçe are reported to have a full squad. Nigel Williams-Goss and Kaodirichi Akobundu-Ehiogu are out for Žalgiris, but Azuolas Tubelis is expected to play; neither team is playing on consecutive days. Estimate. Fenerbahce SK −6.5: 53% · Žalgiris +6.5: 47% Why we are backing it. The squad situation leans our estimate towards Fenerbahçe: the home side have a full squad available, while Žalgiris' primary playmaker Williams-Goss is absent. In addition, Fenerbahçe have covered this line in all three of their EuroLeague home games this season. Deviation from the market: The squad situation shifts our estimate towards Fenerbahçe, as the home side are reported to have a full squad but Žalgiris' primary playmaker Nigel Williams-Goss is out.

Odds 1.96 · market 49.4% · our estimate 53% · edge +3.9%

Birmingham City – Preston North End: Over 2.5 goals @ 1.77

Statistics. Birmingham's average total goals figure over their last 10 games has been 3.1 and Preston's 2.8. Over 2.5 goals has landed in 7/10 of the last matches for both. Situation. Both have three rest days, so there is no clear advantage in the schedule. Leonard, Paik and Wright are absent for Birmingham; McCann and Potts are out for Preston and Carroll is doubtful, which reduces midfield options. Estimate. Over: 58% · Under: 42% Why we are backing it. The goal totals in both sides' recent matches support the Over option slightly more strongly than the market does. Preston conceding 2.0 goals per game keeps the match's upside potential high. Deviation from the market: Our estimate leans more towards Over than the market because 7/10 of the last matches for both went over the line and the average total goals per match are 3.1 and 2.8.

Odds 1.77 · market 54.5% · our estimate 58% · edge +2.7%

Valencia Basket – Olympiacos: Olympiacos −2.5 points @ 1.93

Statistics. In the EuroLeague's 10-game sample, both have scored 92.8 points per game, but Olympiacos have conceded 78.0 and Valencia 87.3 points. In four EuroLeague games this season, Valencia have scored 101.3 points per game and Olympiacos 95.5; Valencia's pace has been the highest in the competition, at 79.8 possessions per game. Situation. Both squads are fully available according to the official preview. Valencia played a demanding 89–86 away game against Barcelona on Sunday, while Olympiacos rested Ward, Dorsey, Joseph, Dunston and Tyrique Jones; neither is playing on consecutive days. Estimate. Olympiacos −2.5: 53% · Valencia Basket +2.5: 47% Why we are backing it. The schedule and rotation give Olympiacos a small advantage: Valencia come in with around 48 hours' recovery after a demanding away game, while several Olympiacos rotation players rested on Sunday. Deviation from the market: The schedule and rotation lean our estimate slightly towards Olympiacos −2.5, because Valencia played a demanding away game around 48 hours earlier and Olympiacos rested five rotation players on Sunday.

Odds 1.93 · market 50.5% · our estimate 53% · edge +2.3%

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