Tips 2026-10-17

Saturday evening and the night into Sunday are heavily focused on NHL hockey, with several interesting regular-season games being played. In football, there are fixtures in both La Liga and MLS, while top-level NCAA American football adds its own flavour to the evening.

Likely

Likely selections are favourites whose chance of winning we consider to be at least as high as the market does. They land more often than value selections, but short odds mean that one loss wipes out several wins. The edge in this band is usually around zero or negative, because the odds include the bookmaker's margin – long-term return is at the market level, not above it.

Seattle Sounders FC – CF Montreal: Seattle Sounders FC to win @ 1.40

Statistics. Seattle have scored 1.7 and conceded 1.0 goals per game over their last 10 matches; Montreal's corresponding figures are 0.9 and 2.2. In the league table, Seattle have 41 points and Montreal 24, while Montreal's 35 goals are the joint-lowest total in MLS. Situation. Seattle are playing their third match in eight days and are without Pedro de la Vega, Paul Rothrock and Nikola Petkovic. In addition to the listed absentees, Montreal are without 15-goal Prince Owusu and Dante Sealy according to the latest preview; further rotation is possible ahead of Wednesday's cup match. The official matchday guide gives the regulation kick-off time as 19.40 PT, i.e. 05.40 Finnish time (Helsinki time) on 18.10. Estimate. Seattle Sounders FC: 70% · Draw: 18% · CF Montreal: 12% Why we are backing it. Montreal's depleted squad and possible rotation lift Seattle's win probability slightly above the market anchor. Seattle's congested fixture schedule nevertheless keeps the estimate below the inverse of odds 1.40.

Odds 1.40 · market 68.9% · our estimate 70% · edge -2.0%

Chicago Blackhawks – Dallas Stars: Dallas Stars to win @ 1.50

Statistics. Dallas have started 3–3–1 with a goal difference of 16–13, Chicago 3–5–0 with a goal difference of 21–32. The save percentages of the projected starters are Jake Oettinger 94.4% and Spencer Knight 89.0%; Dallas are 2–1–1 away and Chicago 3–1–0 at home. Situation. Oettinger and Knight are NHL.com's projected starters, not yet confirmed; Knight is reported to be making his fourth consecutive start. Dallas are without Matt Duchene and Oskar Back, Chicago without Andrew Mangiapane and Bowen Byram, and neither team is playing on consecutive days. Estimate. Chicago Blackhawks: 35% · Dallas Stars: 65% Why we are backing it. The goaltending matchup lifts Dallas's estimate slightly above the market anchor: Oettinger has started the season clearly more strongly than Knight, and the teams' goal differences also support the away favourite.

Odds 1.50 · market 63.4% · our estimate 65% · edge -2.5%

Vegas Golden Knights – Pittsburgh Penguins: Vegas Golden Knights to win @ 1.51

Statistics. Vegas have started the season 7–2–0 and scored 35 goals in nine games, which was the joint-highest mark in the NHL on the morning of matchday. Pittsburgh are 3–4–1 and lost 5–2 to Colorado on Friday. Situation. Pittsburgh are playing the latter game of an away back-to-back after travelling from Denver to Las Vegas, while Vegas last played on Thursday. Daily Faceoff listed Sergei Murashov and Adin Hill as starters, but both were projected rather than confirmed. Estimate. Vegas Golden Knights: 64.5% · Pittsburgh Penguins: 35.5% Why we are backing it. Pittsburgh's second away game on consecutive days lifts Vegas's estimate slightly above the market's fair anchor. The unconfirmed goaltenders keep the uplift modest. Deviation from the market: Pittsburgh's away game on the second consecutive day after the 5–2 defeat in Denver lifts Vegas's estimate slightly above the market anchor.

Odds 1.51 · market 63.7% · our estimate 65% · edge -2.6%

Ole Miss Rebels – Missouri Tigers: Ole Miss Rebels to win @ 1.56

Statistics. Ole Miss have scored 38.8 points per game and conceded 28.0 over their last five matches. Missouri have scored 35.8 points per game and conceded only 17.7 across six games. Situation. Ole Miss QB1 Trinidad Chambliss and Missouri QB1 Austin Simmons have been identified from the latest official match sources, and neither is reported out or doubtful. Both last played on 10.10., so each has seven days of rest. Estimate. Ole Miss Rebels: 62.2% · Missouri Tigers: 37.8% Why we are backing it. Ole Miss's home advantage and efficient offence make them the more likely winners, but Missouri's strong defence prevents us from lifting the estimate above the market's fair 62.2%.

Odds 1.56 · market 62.2% · our estimate 62% · edge -3.0%

Austin FC – Vancouver Whitecaps FC: Vancouver Whitecaps FC to win @ 1.68

Statistics. Austin have scored 1.2 and conceded 1.7 goals per game over their last 10 matches; Vancouver's corresponding figures are 1.5 and 1.5. The clubs' previews list Vancouver's season goal total as 2.1 per game and Austin's as 1.3; Vancouver's league record is 15–7–7 and Austin's 7–12–10. Situation. Vancouver's confirmed starting line-up includes Brian White, Ryan Gauld and Andrés Cubas, but Thomas Müller is out. Both played three days earlier, and this is already Vancouver's fourth away game in 12 days; Vancouver are targeting top spot in the West, while Austin are seven points off the play-off line. Estimate. Austin FC: 20.3% · Draw: 22.0% · Vancouver Whitecaps FC: 57.8% Why we are backing it. Vancouver are clear favourites thanks to their better season and strong key core, but Müller's absence and a congested away run prevent us from lifting the estimate above the market's fair 57.8%.

Odds 1.68 · market 57.8% · our estimate 58% · edge -3.0%

Over/Under and handicap

In Over/Under selections, you bet on the match's total goals or points, not the winner. The odds are 1.70–2.20 and the rationale is always specified: match pace, goaltenders, absences or conditions. In ice hockey, overtime and the shootout count; in football, only regulation time counts. In handicap selections, you bet on the winning margin: Lakers −4.5 wins if Lakers win by at least five.

Montréal Canadiens – Buffalo Sabres: Over 6.5 goals @ 2.18

Statistics. Montréal's seven games have averaged 7.1 goals (3.3 scored, 3.9 conceded), Buffalo's eight 6.8 (3.0 and 3.8). Buffalo's penalty kill has been only 61.5%, although both power plays have been modest. Situation. Montréal are confirmed to start Jacob Fowler (.824), and Buffalo's likely starter is Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (.854), who was in the starters' net at morning skate. Neither team is playing on consecutive days. Estimate. Over: 52.5% · Under: 47.5% Why we are backing it. Both teams' high average goals conceded and the goaltenders' weak early-season save percentages lift the probability of Over 6.5 goals above the market estimate. Deviation from the market: The estimate leans above the market anchor because the teams' defensive numbers are weak and the Fowler–Luukkonen goaltending pair have started the season with save percentages of .824 and .854.

Odds 2.18 · market 47.2% · our estimate 53% · edge +14.5%

Tampa Bay Lightning – Vancouver Canucks: Over 6.5 goals @ 2.09

Statistics. In Tampa Bay's seven-game sample, goals are 3.0–2.7 per game; in Vancouver's nine-game sample, 3.1–4.6. Vancouver's penalty kill is 60.0% and they allow 32.4 shots per game; Tampa Bay's power play, however, has been only 7.4%. Situation. Daily Faceoff projects Leevi Meriläinen and Andrei Vasilevskiy in goal, but neither had yet been confirmed. The teams are not under b2b strain; Vancouver are ending a six-game road trip and Filip Chytil returned to the line-up on Thursday. Estimate. Over: 52% · Under: 48% Why we are backing it. Vancouver's 4.6 goals conceded per game, 60.0% penalty kill and heavy shot volume support the over. Tampa Bay's better defence and weak power play keep the deviation from the market modest. Deviation from the market: Vancouver's poor defensive performance, 60.0% penalty kill and high opposition shot total shift the estimate modestly towards the over market.

Odds 2.09 · market 48.9% · our estimate 52% · edge +8.7%

Vegas Golden Knights – Pittsburgh Penguins: Over 6.5 goals @ 2.08

Statistics. Vegas have scored 4.0 and conceded 2.4 goals per game in a nine-game sample. Pittsburgh's eight-game figures are 3.4 scored and 3.4 conceded; Vegas's power play has operated at 25.7%. Situation. Daily Faceoff lists Sergei Murashov and Adin Hill as projected starters, but neither has been confirmed. Pittsburgh are playing on the second consecutive night after losing 2–5 to Colorado, while Vegas enter the game better rested. Estimate. Over: 52% · Under: 48% Why we are backing it. Vegas's high scoring pace meets a Pittsburgh side that have conceded 3.4 goals per game and are fatigued. The unconfirmed goaltenders temper the estimate, but the overall picture leans slightly towards the over. Deviation from the market: Vegas's high scoring pace, plus Pittsburgh's weaker defensive figure, consecutive matchday and projected goaltending change, shift the estimate slightly towards the over.

Odds 2.08 · market 49.8% · our estimate 52% · edge +8.2%

Detroit Red Wings – San Jose Sharks: Under 6.5 goals @ 1.85

Statistics. Detroit's seven-game average total is 5.3 goals and San Jose's 6.3. Detroit have scored 2.3 and conceded 3.0 goals per game, San Jose 2.7 and 3.6 respectively; special teams figures are 16.7/69.6% for Detroit and 20.0/81.8% for San Jose. Situation. John Gibson and Alex Nedeljkovic are confirmed as starters; Nedeljkovic's early-season save percentage is 93.3, Gibson's 86.3. Neither team is playing on consecutive days, and the official match schedule is 18.10. at 02.00 Finnish time. Estimate. Over: 43% · Under: 57% Why we are backing it. Detroit's early-season games have averaged clearly below the line, and Nedeljkovic's confirmation in the San Jose net is clearly worse news for the over option than the Askarov projection. Deviation from the market: Detroit's low-scoring environment and San Jose's confirmed starter Nedeljkovic's strong early season shift the estimate towards the under.

Odds 1.85 · market 53.8% · our estimate 57% · edge +5.4%

Valencia – Athletic Bilbao: Under 2.5 goals @ 1.81

Statistics. Valencia have scored 0.7 and conceded 1.8 goals per game over their last 10 matches; Over 2.5 landed in 5/10. Athletic's nine-game figures are 1.0 scored and 1.1 conceded, and Over 2.5 landed in only 3/9. Situation. In the confirmed starting line-ups, Valencia start in a 5-4-1 formation and Athletic in a 4-2-3-1; Dimitrievski and Unai Simón start in goal. Athletic are without attacking players Sancet and Nico Williams, while Valencia are without Sadiq. Estimate. Over: 42% · Under: 58% Why we are backing it. Athletic's low-scoring match profile, Valencia's weak goalscoring and key attacking absences lift the under estimate above the market's fair estimate. Deviation from the market: The estimate leans more towards the under than the market because Athletic's match profile has been low-scoring and their confirmed line-up is without attacking players Sancet and Nico Williams.

Odds 1.81 · market 54.3% · our estimate 58% · edge +5.0%

New York City FC – Los Angeles FC: Under 2.5 goals @ 2.17

Statistics. NYCFC have scored 0.9 and conceded 1.3 goals per game over their last 10 matches; Over 2.5 landed in 4/10. LAFC's figures are 1.2 scored and 1.2 conceded, and 4/10 of their matches also went over the line. Situation. NYCFC are without, among others, Maxi Moralez and Keaton Parks, while LAFC's own status report confirms the absences of Carter, Ebobisse and Tillman. LAFC's Son–Bouanga pair are nevertheless available and in dangerous form, and both teams need points in the play-off battle. Estimate. Over: 52% · Under: 48% Why we are backing it. The low-scoring 10-game sample, NYCFC's output of only 0.9 goals per game and midfield absences lift the under estimate above the market. LAFC's attacking form keeps the deviation modest. Deviation from the market: The under estimate is higher than the market due to both teams' low-scoring 10-game samples, NYCFC's poor goalscoring output and their midfield absences.

Odds 2.17 · market 44.6% · our estimate 48% · edge +4.2%

Specials

In specials, you bet on an individual player's statistic: in the NHL, points, goals, assists, shots, power-play points or saves; in Liiga, points, goals, assists or shots; and in the NBA, points, rebounds, assists or threes. The selection is published only with a confirmed line-up and is void if the player does not play. The odds are 1.60–2.20 and the rationale is always specified.

Philadelphia Flyers – Ottawa Senators: Tyson Foerster Over 1.5 shots @ 1.63

Statistics. Foerster has gone over the line in 7/10 and 15/20 recent games. His average is 2.2 shots, median 2.0, shot rate 7.9/60 min and ice time over the last five games 16:44. Situation. Foerster is the right winger on the Flyers' projected, not yet confirmed first line and a PP2 player according to Daily Faceoff. Ottawa allow 26.0 shots per game, and Linus Ullmark is confirmed as the starter. Estimate. Over: 70% · Under: 30% Why we are backing it. The low 1.5-shot line, Foerster's 73% empirical over rate in recent games and his first-line role support the over. Ottawa's shot-limiting profile reduces the estimate slightly. Deviation from the market: Ottawa allowing only 26.0 shots per game lowers the estimate slightly from the 73% empirical level, although Foerster is projected on the first line's right wing.

Odds 1.63 · market 56.9% · our estimate 70% · edge +14.1%

Florida Panthers – Seattle Kraken: Anton Lundell Over 1.5 shots @ 1.61

Statistics. Lundell has gone over the 1.5-shot line in 8/10 recent games; the period average is 2.1 and median 2.0. Shots/60 is 6.7, and ice time over the last five games has been 17:32. Situation. Lundell is on the projected third line with Luostarinen and Vilmanis and on Florida's second power-play unit. Seattle allow 31.1 shots per game, and Joey Daccord is the projected but not yet confirmed starter. Estimate. Over: 67% · Under: 33% Why we are backing it. Seattle offer a favourable opponent in terms of shot volume, but the third-line role and slightly reduced recent ice time prevent us from lifting the estimate above the empirical 67%. Deviation from the market: The direction against Seattle is positive due to the 31.1 shots allowed, but Lundell's third-line role and 6% lower ice time over the last five games keep the estimate at the empirical 67%.

Odds 1.61 · market 58.2% · our estimate 67% · edge +7.9%

Toronto Maple Leafs – New York Islanders: Kirill Marchenko Over 0.5 points @ 1.64

Statistics. Marchenko has gone over the line in 7/10 recent games and 13/20 games; the weighted empirical probability is 67%. His points average is 0.9 and ice time over the last five is 18:49. Situation. Marchenko is on the day's projected second line with Easton Cowan and Nick Paul and on PP1, with John Tavares out. The Islanders have conceded 2.4 goals/game, and Ilya Sorokin was in the starters' net at morning skate; this is projected information, not finally confirmed. Estimate. Over: 64% · Under: 36% Why we are backing it. Tavares's absence supports Marchenko's attacking role, but Sorokin's 93.4% save form and the Islanders' low goals-conceded total reduce the over estimate slightly from the empirical level. Deviation from the market: With Tavares absent, Marchenko is on the second line and PP1, but the strong Sorokin and the Islanders' low average of 2.4 goals conceded per game bring the over estimate slightly down from the 67% empirical figure to 64%.

Odds 1.64 · market 56.6% · our estimate 64% · edge +5.0%

Winnipeg Jets – Carolina Hurricanes: Nikolaj Ehlers Over 0.5 points @ 1.72

Statistics. Ehlers has recorded a point in 6/10 and 12/20 recent games; his points average is 0.8 and median 1.0. His ice time has been 16:27/game and 15:30 over the last five, while Winnipeg have conceded 3.0 goals per game. Situation. Ehlers is projected on Carolina's third line and first power play. Winnipeg are without Josh Morrissey, and Clay Stevenson is projected as the starter; the information is projected, not confirmed. The Jets' penalty kill is nevertheless strong at 88.2%. Estimate. Over: 61% · Under: 39% Why we are backing it. Morrissey's absence and Stevenson's projected start lift the points expectation slightly from the 60% empirical figure. The third-line role and Winnipeg's strong penalty kill keep the uplift modest. Deviation from the market: The estimate is slightly higher than the empirical 60% because Josh Morrissey is out and Clay Stevenson is projected to start, although Ehlers's third-line role and Winnipeg's strong penalty kill limit the uplift.

Odds 1.72 · market 54.0% · our estimate 61% · edge +4.9%

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