Monday 14 Sept 2026 · Morning · published Mon, 14 Sept 2026, 09:00 (Helsinki time)
Tips 2026-09-14
Result: 2/2 hit · return 190.5%
| Match | Sport | Pick | Odds | Kick-off (Helsinki time) | Status | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LikelyOdds 1.30–1.75 · hit more often than value picks, but at short odds one loss wipes out several wins. Edge here is usually near zero or negative – no value edge, nothing is certain. | ||||||
| Al Qadsiah – Al-WaslAFC Champions League Elite | Football | Al Qadsiah to winMatch winner (1X2) · StakeOdds 1.41 · market 65.4% · our estimate 69% · edge -3.0%i | 1.41 | Mon, 14 Sept 2026, 21:15 | Win | Al Qadsiah – Al-Wasl 2–1 (Home win). |
Value picksOur estimate beats the market | ||||||
| Leeds United – Newcastle UnitedValioliiga | Football | Leeds United to winMatch winner (1X2) · BetfredOdds 2.40 · market 39.4% · our estimate 43% · edge +3.2%i | 2.40CLV −2.9 % | Mon, 14 Sept 2026, 22:00 | Win | Leeds United – Newcastle United 4–1 (Home win). |
Monday's schedule features football from both the Asian club competition and the English Premier League. The evening's matches bring together international-level fixtures and intriguing early-season power dynamics in the domestic league campaign.
Likely
Likely selections are favourites whose chances of winning we consider at least as high as the market does. They land more often than value selections, but short odds mean that one loss wipes out several wins. The edge in this band is generally around zero or negative, as the odds include the bookmaker's margin – the long-term return is at market level, not above it.
Al Qadsiah – Al-Wasl: Al Qadsiah to win @ 1.41
Statistics. Al Qadsiah have a record of 5–1–1 and a goal difference of 16–8 after seven rounds in the Saudi League; their record from the last five matches is 4–1–0. Al-Wasl started the UAE League with three wins, one draw and one defeat in five matches, with 21 goals scored in total in those matches. xG and xPTS figures: not available. Situation. Al Qadsiah played Al-Ettifaq on 11.9. and Al-Wasl played Al Ain on 10.9., so they have only around three and four days of recovery time respectively. FotMob lists both sides' most recent starting line-ups without a separate absence report; Al-Wasl signed Cameron Puertas from Al Qadsiah on 9.9. The match kicks off on 14.9.2026 at 21.15 (Helsinki time). Estimate. 1: 68.8% · X: 17.9% · 2: 13.3% Why we play it. No concrete, source-based reason was found to deviate from the market's fair distribution, so the estimate remains anchored to the market.
Odds 1.41 · market 65.4% · our estimate 69% · edge -3.0%
Value selections
Our estimate exceeds the market's.
Leeds United – Newcastle United: Leeds United to win @ 2.40
Statistics. After three Premier League matches, Leeds have an xG of 3.6 and an xGA of 3.9, while Newcastle's corresponding figures are 2.8 and 4.9. Both have five points from three matches; Newcastle have scored six goals from 2.8 xG and Leeds three goals from 3.6 xG. Situation. Joe Rodon is out for Leeds, but according to the club there are no other new concerns. Joelinton, Dan Burn and William Osula are out for Newcastle, while Amar Dedic is doubtful; Leeds played in the cup on Wednesday and Newcastle on Tuesday, so both have sufficient recovery time. Estimate. 1: 43% · X: 27% · 2: 30% Why we play it. The team news shifts the estimate towards Leeds due to Newcastle's several absences. In addition, the visitors' early-season xG balance is weaker than their results, but the sample of only three league matches keeps the deviation moderate.
Odds 2.40 · market 39.4% · our estimate 43% · edge +3.2%
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