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Attention turns to North America in the Sunday evening and Monday morning schedule, where NFL season games offer several intriguing matchups. The schedule also includes NBA basketball and NHL ice hockey, so the night's offering covers both ball sports and on-ice action.

Likely

Likely selections are favourites whose chances of winning we consider at least as high as the market does. They land more often than value bets, but short odds mean that one loss wipes out several wins. The edge in this band is usually around zero or negative, because the odds include the bookmaker's margin – the long-term return is at market level, not above it.

Seattle Seahawks – Los Angeles Chargers: Seattle Seahawks to win @ 1.32

Statistics. Seattle are 2–1 with a points differential of 75–50: the team have scored 25.0 and conceded 16.7 points per game. Seattle have recorded 1,103 offensive yards, or 6.16 yards per play, while the Chargers are 0–3 and have scored 14.7 points per game; the Chargers most recently lost 16–24 to Buffalo. Situation. The Chargers will be without, among others, G Kayode Awosika, TE Charlie Kolar and DT Dalvin Tomlinson; Derwin James and Ladd McConkey are questionable. Sam Darnold and Justin Herbert are projected starting quarterbacks, not separately confirmed, and both teams have had the standard seven days' rest. Estimate. Seattle Seahawks: 74.2% · Los Angeles Chargers: 25.8% Why we play it. Seattle are clearly the more likely winners at home, but the estimate does not differ from the market's fair probability. This is a favourite in the probability band, not value odds.

Odds 1.32 · market 74.2% · our estimate 74% · edge -2.1%

Carolina Panthers – Detroit Lions: Detroit Lions to win @ 1.53

Statistics. Detroit have started 2–1 and scored 31 points in each of their three games; Jared Goff has 802 yards, 8 touchdowns and 0 interceptions. Bryce Young has 939 yards, 7 touchdowns and 2 interceptions; Detroit have 12 sacks and Carolina 7. Situation. Jared Goff and Bryce Young are projected starters, but official inactive lists had not yet been published. Jaycee Horn and Mike Jackson are on the injury list in Carolina's secondary, while Xavier Legette and Damien Lewis are also absent; Ben Bartch is absent for Detroit and D.J. Reed is doubtful. Both have had the standard seven days' rest. Estimate. Carolina Panthers: 36.6% · Detroit Lions: 63.4% Why we play it. Detroit's consistent early-season offensive output and Carolina's significant absences support their status as favourites. However, the estimate does not differ from the market's fair probability.

Odds 1.53 · market 63.4% · our estimate 63% · edge -3.0%

Denver Nuggets – Utah Jazz: Denver Nuggets to win @ 1.63

Statistics. Denver finished the 2025–26 season with a 54–28 record; in NBA team statistics, they averaged 122.1 points and conceded 116.9 points per game. Utah's corresponding figures: not available. This is the first 2026–27 pre-season game for both teams, so there is no sample from this season yet. Situation. The game is played at the neutral CU Events Center in Boulder. Denver's Spencer Jones and Trevon Brazile, and Utah's Trey Alexander, were day-to-day, and no rest-related absences were reported; the starting fives were projected, not confirmed. Neither team is playing on consecutive days. Estimate. Denver Nuggets: 59% · Utah Jazz: 41% Why we play it. Denver are justified favourites, but a neutral-site pre-season game and unconfirmed rotations add uncertainty. No concrete, sourced reason was found to deviate from the market's fair 59%.

Odds 1.63 · market 59.0% · our estimate 59% · edge -3.8%

Las Vegas Raiders – Kansas City Chiefs: Kansas City Chiefs to win @ 1.46

Statistics. Both teams have started the season 3–0. The Chiefs have recorded 416.3 yards per game and the Raiders 311.7; the defences have allowed 278.0 and 316.7 yards per game respectively. Both average 29.3 points, but the Chiefs have conceded 16.7 and the Raiders 18.0 points per game. Situation. Patrick Mahomes and Kirk Cousins are projected starters, but official inactive lists were not yet in the sources. Josh Simmons is absent for the Chiefs and Jackson Powers-Johnson for the Raiders; both teams have had the standard seven days' rest. Estimate. Las Vegas Raiders: 34.2% · Kansas City Chiefs: 65.8% Why we play it. The Chiefs' clear yardage advantage on offence and defence supports their status as favourites. However, no concrete sourced reason was found to deviate from the market's fair distribution, so the estimate remains anchored to the market.

Odds 1.46 · market 65.8% · our estimate 66% · edge -3.9%

Vancouver Canucks – Vegas Golden Knights: Vegas Golden Knights to win @ 1.36

Statistics. Vegas have started the season 1–1–0 with an 8–6 goals record. Vancouver's record is 2–1–0 and their goals are 17–15; the three-game sample is still small. Situation. Carter Hart is projected in goal for Vegas and Kevin Lankinen for Vancouver, but the starters had not been confirmed. Vancouver are playing their second game on consecutive nights, while Vegas had a day off. Estimate. Vancouver Canucks: 29.8% · Vegas Golden Knights: 70.2% Why we play it. Vegas are clear favourites and have a schedule advantage, but this does not provide sufficient sourced grounds to deviate from the market's fair 70.2% estimate.

Odds 1.36 · market 70.2% · our estimate 70% · edge -4.5%

Over/Under and Handicap

In Over/Under selections, the bet is on the game's total goals or points, not the winner. Odds are 1.70–2.20 and the rationale is always specified: pace of play, goaltenders, absences or conditions. In ice hockey, overtime and the shootout count, while in football only regular time counts. In Handicap selections, the bet is on the winning margin: Lakers −4.5 wins if the Lakers win by at least five.

Anaheim Ducks – Florida Panthers: Over 6.5 goals @ 2.20

Statistics. Anaheim's total-goals average over their last 10 games is 7.2 and Florida's is 6.6. Anaheim have scored 3.2 and conceded 4.0 goals per game, with Florida's corresponding figures at 3.3 and 3.3. Situation. Daily Faceoff projects Jacob Markstrom and Lukas Dostal as the goaltenders, but the starters had not yet been confirmed; Dostal's save percentage last season was 88.8. Neither is playing on consecutive days. Barkov and Marchand are absent for Florida, Forsling is a game-time decision, and Anaheim are without Terry, Helleson and Moore. Estimate. Over: 50.5% · Under: 49.5% Why we play it. Anaheim's games have averaged above the line in the recent sample, and 4.0 goals conceded per game together with Dostal's 88.8% last season raise the estimate for a high-scoring game above the market. Deviation from the market: The estimate leans more towards the Over than the market due to Anaheim's high goal tally in recent games, their average of 4.0 goals conceded and Dostal's 88.8% save percentage in 2025–26.

Odds 2.20 · market 47.5% · our estimate 51% · edge +11.1%

Carolina Panthers – Detroit Lions: Detroit Lions −3.5 points @ 1.91

Statistics. In three games in the 2026 season, Detroit have scored 31.0 and Carolina 29.7 points per game; Detroit have 12 sacks (2nd in the NFL) and Carolina 7 (12th). In a five-game regular-season sample, supplemented by the final two games of the 2025 season, Detroit's points averages are 24.4–26.8 and Carolina's 22.6–25.2. Situation. Jared Goff and Bryce Young are projected starting quarterbacks, not yet confirmed. Carolina will be without Xavier Legette and Damien Lewis, Jalen Coker is unlikely to play, and both teams have had the standard seven days' rest. Estimate. Detroit Lions −3.5: 54% · Carolina Panthers +3.5: 46% Why we play it. Carolina's offensive personnel shortages on the line and at wide receiver favour Detroit's 12-sack pass rush and lift our estimate for Lions −3.5 slightly above the market.

Odds 1.91 · market 51.2% · our estimate 54% · edge +3.1%

Specials

No specials in this publication.

Bet responsibly and only with money you can afford to lose. Tips are opinions, not promises of profit.

Sunday afternoon's offering turns the focus to football, with both national team UEFA Nations League matches and Spanish Segunda División clashes on the schedule. The day's matches combine the atmosphere of international football with the competition for league points in club football.

Over/Under and Handicap

Over/Under selections concern the total number of goals or points in a match, not the winner. Odds are 1.70–2.20 and the rationale is always specified: match tempo, goalkeepers, absences or conditions. In ice hockey, overtime and the shootout are included, while in football only regular time counts. Handicap selections concern the winning margin: Lakers −4.5 wins if the Lakers win by at least five.

Kosovo – Austria: Over 2.5 goals @ 2.10

Statistics. Kosovo's last five matches averaged 2.2 goals and Over 2.5 landed in 3/5. Austria's five-match goal tally was 11–10, the total per match was 4.2 and Over 2.5 landed in 5/5; the previous meeting a week ago finished 3–1. Situation. On UEFA's official squad list, Kosovo have Vedat Muriqi and Edon Zhegrova available, while Austria's attacking options include Michael Gregoritsch and Sasa Kalajdzic. Both played on 1.10.; the starting line-ups had not yet been announced. Our estimate. Over: 52% · Under: 48% Why we are backing it. Austria's clearly high goal totals in recent matches and the recent 3–1 head-to-head tilt our estimate towards Over 2.5 goals more than the market. Deviation from the market: The recent goal pace and the 3–1 head-to-head a week ago lift the estimate for Over 2.5 goals above the market's fair 47.2%.

Odds 2.10 · market 47.2% · our estimate 52% · edge +9.2%

Las Palmas – Real Valladolid CF: Over 2.5 goals @ 2.03

Statistics. Las Palmas' last five league matches have produced 6–10 goals, and 3/5 matches went Over 2.5 goals. Valladolid's corresponding tally is 6–6 and 2/5 went Over; xG not available. Situation. According to the preview, Las Palmas are without 11 first-team players, including several defenders and forward Sandro, so the defensive line is changing again. Miguel Rubio and Chacón are absent for Valladolid; the predicted line-ups were checked, but the starting line-ups had not yet been confirmed. Our estimate. Over: 51% · Under: 49% Why we are backing it. Las Palmas have conceded 11 goals in seven rounds, and extensive defensive absences raise the risk of an open, error-prone match above the market estimate. Deviation from the market: The estimate leans Over the market because Las Palmas' defence has conceded 11 goals in seven matches and is again facing extensive changes to the defensive line.

Odds 2.03 · market 47.8% · our estimate 51% · edge +3.5%

Special bets

No special bets in this publication.

Gamble responsibly and only with money you can afford to lose. Tips are opinions, not promises of profit.

Sunday's offering is focused on football: several matches are being played in Spain's Segunda División, while international fixtures are also on the schedule in the evening. In tennis, an ATP Tokyo tournament match will be followed in the morning. The estimates are based on the information available, and the odds may change before the matches begin.

Likely

Likely selections are favourites whose chances of winning we consider to be at least as high as the market does. They land more often than value selections, but short odds mean that one loss wipes out several wins. The edge in this band is usually around zero or negative, because the odds include the bookmaker's margin – the long-term return is at market level, not above it.

Adolfo Daniel Vallejo – Jiri Lehecka: Jiri Lehecka to win @ 1.39

Statistics. Lehecka's 2026 hard-court record is 17–10 and Vallejo's is 10–6. Lehecka beat Humbert 5–7, 6–4, 6–4 in Tokyo and won 91% of points behind his first serve; Vallejo defeated Berrettini 7–6, 6–1 in 1 hr 46 min. Situation. Both are in Sunday's quarter-final schedule with no reported withdrawals. Lehecka played three sets on Saturday and Vallejo two, but Vallejo has come through qualifying to reach the tournament. Estimate. Adolfo Daniel Vallejo: 28% · Jiri Lehecka: 72% Why we are backing it. Lehecka is the likely winner on hard courts, but Vallejo's strong tournament prevents us from lifting the estimate above the market's. The estimate matches the market's fair probability.

Odds 1.39 · market 72.0% · our estimate 72% · edge +0.1%

Malta – Andorra: Malta to win @ 1.66

Statistics. Malta have collected three wins, one draw and one defeat from their last five matches, with a goal difference of 8–4. Andorra's record is one win, one draw and three defeats, with a goal difference of 3–8; Malta won the September away meeting 2–1. Situation. A recent preview reports that Malta have no injury concerns, while no new absences were reported for Andorra. Both have their fourth match in 11 days, and Malta's coach said training had focused on recovery. Estimate. Malta: 58.4% · Draw: 28.0% · Andorra: 13.5% Why we are backing it. Malta are justified favourites on the basis of better recent form, home advantage and the 2–1 away win in September. However, no concrete reason overlooked by the market was found to deviate from the fair estimate of 58.4%.

Odds 1.66 · market 58.4% · our estimate 58% · edge -3.0%

Sporting Gijón – Celta Fortuna: Sporting Gijón to win @ 1.64

Statistics. Sporting's record in their last five listed league matches is 2–0–3, with goals of 4–6; Celta Fortuna's corresponding record is 1–1–3, with goals of 4–9. In the last round, Sporting lost 0–2 to Oviedo (xG 0.50–1.76), while Celta Fortuna drew 1–1 with Sabadell (xG 0.60–0.75); xPTS is not available. Situation. Sporting are without seven players, including four attacking options and the suspended César Gelabert. Celta Fortuna's midfield is also severely depleted, and both teams have at least seven full rest days. Estimate. Sporting Gijón: 58.8% · Draw: 24.0% · Celta Fortuna: 17.2% Why we are backing it. Sporting are clear home favourites and Celta Fortuna have taken only one point from their last three matches. However, the numerous absences on both sides do not provide an evidence-based reason to deviate from the market's fair distribution.

Odds 1.64 · market 58.8% · our estimate 59% · edge -3.6%

Portugal – Norway: Portugal to win @ 1.65

Statistics. Portugal have started the Nations League with three wins and an aggregate score of 7–3; Norway's record is one win and two defeats, with an aggregate score of 5–6. Portugal won the teams' meeting in Oslo on 27.9. by 2–1, and in their last six matches Portugal's record is 4–1–1 and Norway's 4–0–2. Situation. Both played on Thursday 1.10., so the rest period is the same, but Portugal have home advantage at Estádio do Dragão. UEFA's preview on 3.10. reported no new absences for either side; Norway's Torbjørn Heggem was sent off against Wales on 1.10., which weakens the away side's defensive rotation. Estimate. Portugal: 57.5% · Draw: 21.8% · Norway: 20.6% Why we are backing it. Portugal's perfect start to the group, home advantage and recent 2–1 away win over Norway make them justified favourites. However, our estimate does not differ from the market's fair estimate, so this is not value odds.

Odds 1.65 · market 57.5% · our estimate 58% · edge -5.0%

Over/Under and Handicap

In Over/Under selections, the bet is on the match's total number of goals or points, not the winner. The odds are 1.70–2.20 and the rationale is always named: match tempo, goalkeepers, absences or conditions. In ice hockey, overtime and shootout are included; in football, only normal time counts. In Handicap selections, the bet is on the winning margin: Lakers −4.5 wins if Lakers win by at least five.

Sporting Gijón – Celta Fortuna: Under 2.5 goals @ 2.13

Statistics. Sporting's goals after seven league matches are 5–6, so their matches have averaged 1.6 goals. Celta Fortuna's goals are 8–11 and their match total average is 2.7; xG is not available. Situation. Sporting are without several attacking players, including Juan Otero, Nikita Iosifov, Konrad de la Fuente and Andrés Ferrari, while César Gelabert is suspended. Celta Fortuna's midfield is affected by absences; the away team's 22-man squad has been announced, but the starting line-ups had not yet been confirmed. Estimate. Over: 47% · Under: 53% Why we are backing it. Sporting's low-scoring profile and attacking absences support an Under 2.5 goals estimate, although Celta Fortuna's defensive figures prevent an even stronger Under stance. Deviation from the market: Sporting's low 5–6 goal profile across seven matches and several attacking absences shift the estimate in favour of the Under.

Odds 2.13 · market 47.4% · our estimate 53% · edge +12.9%

Real Sociedad B – Granada CF: Over 2.5 goals @ 1.99

Statistics. Real Sociedad B's goals after seven league matches are 9–10 and Granada's are 10–11. Over their last five matches, Sociedad B's total-goal average is 3.0 and Granada's is 3.8; Over 2.5 goals has landed in 3/5 and 4/5 respectively. Situation. Mariezkurrena and Kita are suspended for Sociedad B. Emeka is on international duty for Granada and Marqués is doubtful; Diallo returns, but Bamba is unavailable. The starting line-ups have not yet been confirmed. Estimate. Over: 56% · Under: 44% Why we are backing it. The recent goal tempo and goals conceded by both defences support the Over more than the market's almost evenly split estimate. Deviation from the market: The recent match tempo and the high number of goals conceded by both defences lift the probability of Over 2.5 goals above the market estimate.

Odds 1.99 · market 49.2% · our estimate 56% · edge +11.4%

Girona FC – Mallorca: Under 2.5 goals @ 2.04

Statistics. Girona have scored 14 and conceded 8 goals in seven league matches, while Mallorca have scored 8 and conceded only 3. The match total-goal averages are 3.14 for Girona and 1.57 for Mallorca. Situation. Girona's top scorer Asprilla is out, and the participation of several other attacking players is uncertain. Mallorca's key midfielder Morlanes and Antoniu Roca are injured; the starting line-ups have not yet been confirmed. Estimate. Over: 48% · Under: 52% Why we are backing it. Mallorca's tally of only three goals conceded in seven matches and Girona's depleted attack support a low-scoring outcome. Deviation from the market: Mallorca's strong defensive record and Girona's attacking absences shift the estimate more towards Under 2.5 goals than the market.

Odds 2.04 · market 48.0% · our estimate 52% · edge +6.1%

CD Castellón – AD Ceuta FC: Under 3.5 goals @ 1.94

Statistics. Castellón's league-season goals after seven matches are 14–2 and Ceuta's are 6–17. The total-goal average over the last five matches is 3.0 for both; Under 3.5 goals landed in 4/5 of Castellón's matches and 3/5 of Ceuta's. Situation. Castellón's defence has conceded only two goals, but the team are without several players, including midfielder Maty Orozco and attacking option Rodrigo Rego. Among those out of Ceuta's travelling squad are Cedric Teguía, Kenneth Mamah and Edgar Sevikyan, although Omar Sadik returns. Estimate. Over: 46% · Under: 54% Why we are backing it. Castellón's strong defence and absences narrowing the attacking options of both teams lift the Under estimate slightly above the market's. Deviation from the market: The estimate leans more towards the Under than the market because Castellón's defensive figures are exceptionally strong and both teams have absences reducing their attacking options.

Odds 1.94 · market 50.6% · our estimate 54% · edge +4.8%

Netherlands – Serbia: Under 3.5 goals @ 1.90

Statistics. The Netherlands' goals in their last five matches are 9–6, and Under 3.5 goals landed 3/5 times. Serbia's corresponding figures are 3–14, but four of their last five matches stayed under the line; the head-to-head a week ago ended 2–1 to the Netherlands. Situation. Serbia are without Dušan Vlahović, while Aleksandar Mitrović is not in the squad; Brian Brobbey is out among the Netherlands' attacking options. Official starting line-ups had not been announced in the morning, and both are already playing their fourth match within 11 days. Estimate. Over: 45% · Under: 55% Why we are backing it. Serbia's limited attacking output and absences among their leading forwards push the estimate below the market's 51.4% anchor. Fixture congestion and the recent 2–1 meeting support a restrained total-goal outcome. Deviation from the market: The estimate leans more towards the Under than the market because the goal totals in recent matches, the 2–1 meeting a week ago and especially Serbia's attacking absences support a maximum of three goals.

Odds 1.90 · market 51.4% · our estimate 55% · edge +4.5%

Bet responsibly and only with money you can afford to lose. Tips are opinions, not promises of profit.