Tips 2026-09-26

Saturday afternoon's offering focuses on the top-tier basketball leagues in France and Spain, as well as domestic Mestis ice hockey. The evening schedule features closely matched league fixtures, where early-season form and squad situations are emphasised.

Likely

Likely picks are favourites whose chances of winning we consider to be at least as likely as the market does. They land more often than value bets, but short odds mean that one loss wipes out several wins. The edge in this range is usually around zero or negative, as the odds include the bookmaker's margin – the long-term return is at market level, not above it.

Chalon-sur-Saône – Limoges: Chalon-sur-Saône to win @ 1.37

Statistics. Chalon won all seven of their pre-season matches before the league opener. The team finished ninth last season, while Limoges were 13th with a record of 11 wins and 19 losses; Off/Def rating, pace and TS% figures are not available from the sources used. Situation. Chalon had all players available for their final pre-season match; Yael Masdieu-Reynaert and Noam Masdieu-Reynaert were absent for Limoges' last match. This is the league opener for both sides, so neither is playing on consecutive days. According to the revised schedule, the match starts at 6.00 pm local time, i.e. 7.00 pm Finnish time (Helsinki time). Estimate. Chalon-sur-Saône: 70.9% · Limoges: 29.1% Why we are betting. Chalon's perfect pre-season and healthy squad situation support their status as favourites, but do not provide sufficient evidence from the sources to raise our estimate above the market's fair 70.9%.

Odds 1.37 · market 70.9% · our estimate 71% · edge -2.9%

Hermes Kokkola – Pyry: Hermes Kokkola to win the match @ 1.45

Statistics. Hermes have started the Mestis season with four matches: two wins and goals scored and conceded of 8–11. Pyry have two wins from five matches and goals scored and conceded of 16–14; the team beat RoKi 3–1 on Friday. Situation. In the official line-up, Juho Ahopelto is listed first among Hermes' goaltenders and Alex Mäkelä among Pyry's goaltenders. Pyry are playing their second match in less than 24 hours and travelling to Kokkola, while Hermes have rested since Wednesday; according to the preview, Pyry's squad situation has strengthened. Estimate. Hermes Kokkola: 64% · Pyry: 36% Why we are betting. The match schedule shifts our estimate slightly away from the market towards Hermes: Pyry are under a back-to-back burden away from home, while the home side have had two rest days. Deviation from the market: The match schedule tilts the estimate slightly towards Hermes, as Pyry are playing a back-to-back match away from home after Hermes have rested since Wednesday.

Odds 1.45 · market 61.8% · our estimate 64% · edge -7.2%

Bilbao Basket – Bàsquet Manresa: Bilbao Basket to win @ 1.36

Statistics. PokerStars Sports' match winner odds are 1.36 for Bilbao Basket and 2.80 for Bàsquet Manresa; Bilbao are also 5.5-point favourites and the total points line is 172.5. Off/Def rating, pace and TS% figures for the 2026–27 season are not yet available, as this is the opening round. Situation. According to the ACB matchday report, Bilbao will have all their players available, while Pierre Oriola and Timmy Allen are doubtful for Manresa. This is the league-season opener for both sides, so there is no ACB back-to-back burden. The confirmed start time is 6.00 pm in Spain, i.e. 7.00 pm Finnish time. Estimate. Bilbao Basket 67.3% · Bàsquet Manresa 32.7% Why we are betting. Bilbao's fitness situation supports their status as favourites, but we do not find sufficient evidence from the sources to deviate from the market's fair probability.

Odds 1.36 · market 67.3% · our estimate 67% · edge -8.5%

Over/Under

No Over/Under picks in this publication.

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