Sunday 13 Sep 2026 · 8 picks · 6/8 hit · return 118.6%

Hits

6/8

of all published

Return

118.6%

flat-stake singles

Likely

5/5

return 144.7%

Value picks

1/3

return 75.0%

Match	Sport	Pick	Odds	Kick-off (Helsinki time)	Status	Result
LikelyOdds 1.30–1.75 · hit more often than value picks, but at short odds one loss wipes out several wins. Edge here is usually near zero or negative – no value edge, nothing is certain.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Cincinnati BengalsNFL	American football🏈	Cincinnati Bengals to winMatch winner · bet365Odds 1.49 · market 64.4% · our estimate 64% · edge -4.0%i	1.49CLV −1.3 %	Sun, 13 Sept 2026, 20:00Sun 13 Sept20:00morning	Win	Cincinnati Bengals won 33–27.
		The Bengals' Burrow-led offence faces Tampa Bay's weak passing and red-zone defence last season, but Cincinnati were also weak defensively. The estimate therefore remains anchored to the market.
The Bengals' Burrow-led offence faces Tampa Bay's weak passing and red-zone defence last season, but Cincinnati were also weak defensively. The estimate therefore remains anchored to the market.
Miami Dolphins – Las Vegas RaidersNFL	American football🏈	Las Vegas Raiders to winMatch winner · bet365Odds 1.54 · market 62.4% · our estimate 62% · edge -4.1%i	1.54CLV −0.6 %	Sun, 13 Sept 2026, 23:25Sun 13 Sept23:25morning	Win	Las Vegas Raiders won 27–13.
		Miami are undergoing a major overhaul, but Raiders' Brock Bowers' absence cuts into the favourite's offensive edge. No source-based edge deviating from the market estimate was found.
Miami are undergoing a major overhaul, but Raiders' Brock Bowers' absence cuts into the favourite's offensive edge. No source-based edge deviating from the market estimate was found.
Flamengo – CorinthiansBrasilian Série A	Football⚽	Flamengo to winMatch winner (1X2) · FairPariOdds 1.44 · market 66.0% · our estimate 70% · edge +0.8%i	1.44	Sun, 13 Sept 2026, 23:30Sun 13 Sept23:30morning	Win	Flamengo won 2–1.
		Flamengo are at the top end of the league, while Corinthians arrive on a run of four league defeats without Yuri Alberto. The Quito exertion and expected rotation nevertheless lower the home-win estimate to 70%.
Flamengo are at the top end of the league, while Corinthians arrive on a run of four league defeats without Yuri Alberto. The Quito exertion and expected rotation nevertheless lower the home-win estimate to 70%.
Peyton Stearns – Emiliana ArangoWTA Guadalajara	Tennis🎾	Peyton Stearns to winMatch winner · InterbetOdds 1.35 · market 70.3% · our estimate 72% · edge -3.5%i	1.35	Sun, 13 Sept 2026, 22:10Sun 13 Sept22:10afternoon	Win	Peyton Stearns won 6–3, 6–2.
		Stearns is ahead based on the rankings and this season's hard-court results. Arango having only three days of recovery tilts our estimate slightly further towards Stearns.
Stearns is ahead based on the rankings and this season's hard-court results. Arango having only three days of recovery tilts our estimate slightly further towards Stearns.
Washington Commanders – Philadelphia EaglesNFL	American football🏈	Philadelphia Eagles to winMatch winner (moneyline) · bet365Odds 1.42 · market 67.6% · our estimate 68% · edge -4.2%i	1.42CLV ±0.0 %	Sun, 13 Sept 2026, 23:25Sun 13 Sept23:25afternoon	Win	Philadelphia Eagles won 24–22.
		Philadelphia were clearly stronger than Washington in 2025, but the Eagles' Jonathan Greenard is out. The current line-up information gives no reason to deviate from the market's fair estimate.
Philadelphia were clearly stronger than Washington in 2025, but the Eagles' Jonathan Greenard is out. The current line-up information gives no reason to deviate from the market's fair estimate.
Value picksOur estimate beats the market
Manchester United – Manchester CityEnglannin Valioliiga	Football⚽	Manchester City to winMatch winner (1X2) · 1xBetOdds 2.25 · market 43.8% · our estimate 46% · edge +3.5%i	2.25CLV −3.5 %	Sun, 13 Sept 2026, 18:30Sun 13 Sept18:30morning	Win	Manchester City won 1–0.
		City have two extra days to recover and face a United side missing several midfield and defensive options. Therefore, the estimate is slightly more favourable to City than the market.
City have two extra days to recover and face a United side missing several midfield and defensive options. Therefore, the estimate is slightly more favourable to City than the market.
Buffalo Bills – Houston TexansNFL	American football🏈	Houston Texans to winMatch winner · bet365Odds 2.00 · market 47.8% · our estimate 51% · edge +2.0%i	2.00CLV +3.0 %	Sun, 13 Sept 2026, 20:00Sun 13 Sept20:00morning	Loss	Buffalo Bills won 36–31.
		Houston's Week 1 report has no game statuses, while the Bills have three questionable players. The Texans' defence and Buffalo's debut in a new defensive system slightly tilt the estimate towards the home team.
Houston's Week 1 report has no game statuses, while the Bills have three questionable players. The Texans' defence and Buffalo's debut in a new defensive system slightly tilt the estimate towards the home team.
Arouca – Santa ClaraPortugalin Primeira Liga	Football⚽	Arouca to winMatch winner (1X2) · MegapariOdds 2.68 · market 35.4% · our estimate 38% · edge +1.8%i	2.68CLV −0.4 %	Sun, 13 Sept 2026, 20:00Sun 13 Sept20:00morning	Loss	Arouca lost 1–2 to Santa Clara.
		Arouca's strong home profile and more demanding early-season schedule lift our home-win estimate slightly above the market anchor. Javi Sánchez's uncertainty moderates the uplift.
Arouca's strong home profile and more demanding early-season schedule lift our home-win estimate slightly above the market anchor. Javi Sánchez's uncertainty moderates the uplift.