Tuesday 15 Sep 2026 · 11 picks · 5/11 hit · return 68.2%

Hits

5/11

of all published

Return

68.2%

flat-stake singles

Likely

4/5

return 108.6%

Value picks

1/6

return 34.5%

Match	Sport	Pick	Odds	Kick-off (Helsinki time)	Status	Result
LikelyOdds 1.30–1.75 · hit more often than value picks, but at short odds one loss wipes out several wins. Edge here is usually near zero or negative – no value edge, nothing is certain.
Ranska – SaksaLentopallon Euroopan-mestaruuskilpailut	Volleyball🏐	France to winMatch winner · StakeOdds 1.34 · market 69.1% · our estimate 72% · edge -3.5%i	1.34	Tue, 15 Sept 2026, 20:00Tue 15 Sept20:00morning	Win	France beat Germany 3–0 (25–21, 25–17, 25–19).
		France have won all three tournament matches with a 9–1 set record. Germany played a 107-minute four-set match on Monday and must face France on consecutive days.
France have won all three tournament matches with a 9–1 set record. Germany played a 107-minute four-set match on Monday and must face France on consecutive days.
Los Angeles Dodgers – Cincinnati RedsMLB	Baseball⚾	Los Angeles Dodgers to win incl. extra inningsMatch winner incl. extra innings · DraftKingsOdds 1.43 · market 66.7% · our estimate 69% · edge -1.3%i	1.43CLV +0.7 %	Wed, 16 Sept 2026, 01:40Wed 16 Sept01:40morning	Win	Los Angeles Dodgers beat Cincinnati Reds 4–0.
		Yamamoto–Lowder is a clear starting-pitcher edge for the Dodgers, but Ohtani's absence and only a narrow gap to the market keep the estimate modest.
Yamamoto–Lowder is a clear starting-pitcher edge for the Dodgers, but Ohtani's absence and only a narrow gap to the market keep the estimate modest.
TPS – JukuritLiiga	Ice hockey🏒	TPS to win incl. overtime and shootoutMatch winner incl. overtime and shootout · StakeOdds 1.38 · market 67.8% · our estimate 69% · edge -5.3%i	1.38CLV −1.4 %	Tue, 15 Sept 2026, 18:30Tue 15 Sept18:30afternoon	Loss	TPS 1–4 Jukurit (Jukurit won).
		TPS's early-season xG figures and the confirmed Eetu Mäkiniemi support the home favourite, but the market's fair 68.6% accounts sufficiently for the situation and 1.38 offers no edge on our estimate.
TPS's early-season xG figures and the confirmed Eetu Mäkiniemi support the home favourite, but the market's fair 68.6% accounts sufficiently for the situation and 1.38 offers no edge on our estimate.
Elche – Real MadridLa Liga	Football⚽	Real Madrid to winMatch winner (1X2) · bet365Odds 1.30 · market 71.8% · our estimate 72% · edge -6.7%i	1.30CLV ±0.0 %	Tue, 15 Sept 2026, 22:30Tue 15 Sept22:30afternoon	Win	Elche 2–3 Real Madrid (Real Madrid won in regular time).
		Real Madrid's results and shot counts in recent matches are clearly stronger than Elche's, but at odds of 1.30 the market appears to be fully pricing in the difference.
Real Madrid's results and shot counts in recent matches are clearly stronger than Elche's, but at odds of 1.30 the market appears to be fully pricing in the difference.
Athletics – Tampa Bay RaysMLB	Baseball⚾	Tampa Bay Rays to winMatch winner incl. extra innings · PokerStars SportsOdds 1.36 · market 66.5% · our estimate 68% · edge -7.5%i	1.36CLV −0.7 %	Wed, 16 Sept 2026, 01:40Wed 16 Sept01:40afternoon	Win	Athletics 1–2 Tampa Bay Rays (Rays won on a walk-off home run in the 9th inning).
		The Rays have a clear advantage in the starting pitchers and Athletics' line-up is severely depleted, but 1.36 is still short odds and the estimate is raised only slightly above the market anchor.
The Rays have a clear advantage in the starting pitchers and Athletics' line-up is severely depleted, but 1.36 is still short odds and the estimate is raised only slightly above the market anchor.
Value picksOur estimate beats the market
Pelicans – TapparaLiiga	Ice hockey🏒	Pelicans to win in regulation timeMatch winner in regulation time (1X2) · InterwettenOdds 3.05 · market 30.3% · our estimate 34% · edge +3.7%i	3.05CLV +8.2 %	Tue, 15 Sept 2026, 18:30Tue 15 Sept18:30morning	Loss	Pelicans 2–3 Tappara (Tappara won in regular time).
		Pelicans' 3–0 start and the league's lowest xGA per match receive further support from Tappara's CHL weekend in Sweden and Benjamin Rautiainen's absence.
Pelicans' 3–0 start and the league's lowest xGA per match receive further support from Tappara's CHL weekend in Sweden and Benjamin Rautiainen's absence.
West Ham – FulhamEFL Cup	Football⚽	West Ham to winMatch winner in regulation time (1X2) · FairPariOdds 3.17 · market 30.0% · our estimate 34% · edge +7.8%i	3.17	Tue, 15 Sept 2026, 21:45Tue 15 Sept21:45morning	Loss	West Ham 2–3 Fulham (Fulham won in regular time).
		West Ham have won four in a row, while Fulham have one point from four league matches. Fulham's projected cup rotation and one day less recovery lift the home-win estimate.
West Ham have won four in a row, while Fulham have one point from four league matches. Fulham's projected cup rotation and one day less recovery lift the home-win estimate.
Sloane Stephens – Janice TjenWTA Guadalajara	Tennis🎾	Sloane Stephens to winMatch winner · StakeOdds 2.07 · market 45.1% · our estimate 49% · edge +1.4%i	2.07	Wed, 16 Sept 2026, 03:10Wed 16 Sept03:10morning	Win	Sloane Stephens beat Janice Tjen 7–6(4), 7–6(3).
		Stephens' hard-court results in recent weeks are stronger than her ranking: wins over Tauson and Potapova, plus a controlled first-round performance in Guadalajara, lift the estimate narrowly above the market.
Stephens' hard-court results in recent weeks are stronger than her ranking: wins over Tauson and Potapova, plus a controlled first-round performance in Guadalajara, lift the estimate narrowly above the market.
Peterborough United – BarnsleyEFL Cup	Football⚽	Barnsley to winMatch winner (1X2) · BetfredOdds 2.88 · market 31.7% · our estimate 36% · edge +2.2%i	2.88	Tue, 15 Sept 2026, 21:30Tue 15 Sept21:30afternoon	Loss	Peterborough United 3–3 Barnsley in regular time; Peterborough won the penalty shootout 7–6. Barnsley did not win in the 1X2 market.
		Peterborough's defence is severely depleted, and Barnsley are unbeaten in the last six head-to-heads. Barnsley's own goalkeeper situation and poor recent form limit the edge.
Peterborough's defence is severely depleted, and Barnsley are unbeaten in the last six head-to-heads. Barnsley's own goalkeeper situation and poor recent form limit the edge.
Liverpool – Tottenham HotspurEFL Cup	Football⚽	Tottenham Hotspur to winMatch winner (1X2) · bet365Odds 4.50 · market 20.8% · our estimate 24% · edge +5.8%i	4.50	Tue, 15 Sept 2026, 22:00Tue 15 Sept22:00afternoon	Loss	Liverpool 3–1 Tottenham Hotspur (Liverpool won in regular time).
		Liverpool's confirmed goalkeeper change and third match in six days increase the rotation risk. Tottenham's absences and poor attacking form, however, limit the estimate.
Liverpool's confirmed goalkeeper change and third match in six days increase the rotation risk. Tottenham's absences and poor attacking form, however, limit the estimate.
Chicago White Sox – Cleveland GuardiansMLB	Baseball⚾	Chicago White Sox to win incl. extra inningsMatch winner incl. extra innings · BetUSOdds 2.14 · market 45.7% · our estimate 48% · edge +2.7%i	2.14CLV −8.8 %	Wed, 16 Sept 2026, 01:40Wed 16 Sept01:40afternoon	Loss	Chicago White Sox 6–7 Cleveland Guardians (Guardians won on a walk-off hit in the 9th inning).
		Martin has returned from the IL with two strong starts, while Griffin is coming off a game of 2 1/3 innings and eight runs allowed. Chicago won the series opener 7–3.
Martin has returned from the IL with two strong starts, while Griffin is coming off a game of 2 1/3 innings and eight runs allowed. Chicago won the series opener 7–3.