Friday 18 Sep 2026 · 8 picks · 6/8 hit · return 114.9%

Hits

6/8

of all published

Return

114.9%

flat-stake singles

Value picks

1/1

return 210.0%

Sorceress's pick

1/1

return 147.0%

Likely

4/6

return 93.7%

Match	Sport	Pick	Odds	Kick-off (Helsinki time)	Status	Result
LikelyOdds 1.30–1.75 · hit more often than value picks, but at short odds one loss wipes out several wins. Edge here is usually near zero or negative – no value edge, nothing is certain.
Manchester City – LiverpoolEnglannin Women's Super League	Football⚽	Manchester City to winMatch winner (1X2) · ScoutingStatsOdds 1.33 · market 68.7% · our estimate 69% · edge -8.6%i	1.33	Fri, 18 Sept 2026, 21:00Fri 18 Sept21:00morning	Win	4–2 (Manchester City voitti)
		City have started with two wins and have won the last five head-to-head meetings, but Liverpool's strong start and the narrow most recent meeting do not support a deviation from the market estimate.
City have started with two wins and have won the last five head-to-head meetings, but Liverpool's strong start and the narrow most recent meeting do not support a deviation from the market estimate.
Malmö FF – Djurgårdens IFDamallsvenskan	Football⚽	Malmö FF to winMatch winner (1X2) · GoBetsPlayOdds 1.42 · market 63.1% · our estimate 63% · edge -10.5%i	1.42	Fri, 18 Sept 2026, 20:00Fri 18 Sept20:00afternoon	Win	3–0 (Malmö FF voitti)
		Malmö are third in the league and a strong home side, but the sources did not provide sufficient grounds to raise our estimate above the market's 63.0%.
Malmö are third in the league and a strong home side, but the sources did not provide sufficient grounds to raise our estimate above the market's 63.0%.
Schwenninger Wild Wings – Löwen FrankfurtDEL	Ice hockey🏒	Schwenninger Wild Wings to winMatch winner (incl. overtime and shootout) · SportingbetOdds 1.44 · market 64.8% · our estimate 67% · edge -4.0%i	1.44	Fri, 18 Sept 2026, 20:30Fri 18 Sept20:30afternoon	Loss	0–5 (Löwen Frankfurt voitti)
		Schwenningen are supported by strong home advantage on a small rink, and Joacim Eriksson starts in goal. However, the sources do not provide sufficient grounds to raise our estimate above the market's fair 66.7%.
Schwenningen are supported by strong home advantage on a small rink, and Joacim Eriksson starts in goal. However, the sources do not provide sufficient grounds to raise our estimate above the market's fair 66.7%.
Rapid Wien – WSG TirolItävallan Bundesliiga	Football⚽	Rapid Wien to winMatch winner (1X2) · GoBetsPlayOdds 1.36 · market 66.1% · our estimate 66% · edge -10.1%i	1.36	Fri, 18 Sept 2026, 20:30Fri 18 Sept20:30afternoon	Win	3–0 (Rapid Wien voitti)
		Rapid have won all three of their league home matches this season by a goal difference of 12–1. However, WSG's good form in recent weeks keeps our estimate exactly at the market's fair distribution.
Rapid have won all three of their league home matches this season by a goal difference of 12–1. However, WSG's good form in recent weeks keeps our estimate exactly at the market's fair distribution.
Athletics – Cleveland GuardiansMLB	Baseball⚾	Cleveland Guardians to winMatch winner (moneyline)Odds 1.51 · market 65.8% · our estimate 67% · edge +1.2%i	1.51CLV +0.7 %	Sat, 19 Sept 2026, 02:10Sat 19 Sept02:10night	Win	3–5 (Cleveland Guardians voitti)
		Cleveland have a clear starting pitcher and rest advantage: Espino faces Barnett with a 7.08 ERA, and Athletics played in Tampa Bay the previous evening.
Cleveland have a clear starting pitcher and rest advantage: Espino faces Barnett with a 7.08 ERA, and Athletics played in Tampa Bay the previous evening.
New York Liberty – Minnesota LynxWNBA	Basketball🏀	Minnesota Lynx to winMatch winner (moneyline) · SportsbetOdds 1.36 · market 70.8% · our estimate 71% · edge -3.7%i	1.36CLV −1.4 %	Sat, 19 Sept 2026, 02:30Sat 19 Sept02:30night	Loss	New York Liberty voitti 93–81
		Minnesota are 31–9 and playing at home, but the market's fair estimate of 70.8% already accounts well for the balance of power. Liberty won the earlier meeting of the season, so the estimate is not raised above the market.
Minnesota are 31–9 and playing at home, but the market's fair estimate of 70.8% already accounts well for the balance of power. Liberty won the earlier meeting of the season, so the estimate is not raised above the market.
Value picksOur estimate beats the market
Monaco – LensLigue 1	Football⚽	Monaco to winMatch winner (1X2) · William HillOdds 2.10 · market 46.5% · our estimate 49% · edge +1.8%i	2.10CLV +10.2 %	Fri, 18 Sept 2026, 21:45Fri 18 Sept21:45afternoon	Win	2–1 (Monaco voitti)
		Lens played in Prague on 10.9. and in Le Mans on 13.9., while Monaco had time to prepare after 12.9. In addition, Lens changed manager during the match week.
Lens played in Prague on 10.9. and in Le Mans on 13.9., while Monaco had time to prepare after 12.9. In addition, Lens changed manager during the match week.
Sorceress's pickAdded at the administrator's discretion after the model rejected or did not propose it. Tracked separately.
Brentford – Chelsea-	Football⚽	Total goalsOver 2.5 goals · bet365No model estimate for this market	1.47	Fri, 18 Sept 2026, 22:00Fri 18 Sept22:00morning	Win	3–0 (yhteensä 3 maalia, yli 2,5)
		In eight of Brentford's last nine league matches, there have been at least four yellow cards. Brentford have never lost a Premier League match played on a Friday (5 wins, 1 draw). Over 2.5 goals have been scored in eight of Chelsea's last nine league matches. Chelsea have not kept a clean sheet in 20 Premier League matches.
In eight of Brentford's last nine league matches, there have been at least four yellow cards. Brentford have never lost a Premier League match played on a Friday (5 wins, 1 draw). Over 2.5 goals have been scored in eight of Chelsea's last nine league matches. Chelsea have not kept a clean sheet in 20 Premier League matches.