Sunday 20 Sep 2026 · 8 picks · 5/8 hit · return 85.7%

Hits

5/8

of all published

Return

85.7%

flat-stake singles

Likely

5/7

return 98.0%

Value picks

0/1

return 0.0%

Match	Sport	Pick	Odds	Kick-off (Helsinki time)	Status	Result
LikelyOdds 1.30–1.75 · hit more often than value picks, but at short odds one loss wipes out several wins. Edge here is usually near zero or negative – no value edge, nothing is certain.
Kalamata – PanathinaikosKreikan Super League	Football⚽	Panathinaikos to winMatch winner (1X2) · StoiximanOdds 1.37 · market 70.5% · our estimate 72% · edge -2.0%i	1.37	Sun, 20 Sept 2026, 19:30Sun 20 Sept19:30morning	Win	Kalamata–Panathinaikos 0–1; Panathinaikos voitti.
		Panathinaikos have started the league with four wins and welcome back several rested key players. Kalamata's absences and the neutral venue raise the estimate for an away win slightly above the market anchor.
Panathinaikos have started the league with four wins and welcome back several rested key players. Kalamata's absences and the neutral venue raise the estimate for an away win slightly above the market anchor.
Lech Poznań – Radomiak RadomPuolan Ekstraklasa	Football⚽	Lech Poznań to winMatch winner (1X2) · BetanoOdds 1.34 · market 72.1% · our estimate 72% · edge -3.5%i	1.34	Sun, 20 Sept 2026, 21:15Sun 20 Sept21:15morning	Win	Lech Poznań–Radomiak Radom 5–1; Lech Poznań voitti.
		Lech are clear home favourites, but Thursday's European fixture and several absences prevent an estimate higher than the market's. I return the market's fair estimate of just over 72.0%.
Lech are clear home favourites, but Thursday's European fixture and several absences prevent an estimate higher than the market's. I return the market's fair estimate of just over 72.0%.
Ukraina – RomaniaMiesten EM-kisat	Volleyball🏐	Ukraina to winMatch winner · MarathonbetOdds 1.31 · market 70.5% · our estimate 71% · edge -7.6%i	1.31	Sun, 20 Sept 2026, 16:00Sun 20 Sept16:00afternoon	Loss	Ukraina–Romania 0–3; Romania voitti.
		Ukraina went 4–1 in the group stage and have won all four previous meetings with Romania 3–1. Romania showed their danger by beating France, so there is no justification for deviating from the market estimate.
Ukraina went 4–1 in the group stage and have won all four previous meetings with Romania 3–1. Romania showed their danger by beating France, so there is no justification for deviating from the market estimate.
Suomi – KreikkaMiesten EM-kisat	Volleyball🏐	Suomi to winMatch winner · MarathonbetOdds 1.31 · market 70.5% · our estimate 71% · edge -7.6%i	1.31	Sun, 20 Sept 2026, 17:00Sun 20 Sept17:00afternoon	Win	Suomi–Kreikka 3–2; Suomi voitti.
		Suomi won four of five matches in the group stage, but Kreikka finished their group with three consecutive wins. The sources provide no reason to deviate from the market's fair estimate.
Suomi won four of five matches in the group stage, but Kreikka finished their group with three consecutive wins. The sources provide no reason to deviate from the market's fair estimate.
Olympique Marseille – Paris Saint-GermainLigue 1	Football⚽	Paris Saint-Germain to winMatch winner (1X2) · bet365Odds 1.36 · market 68.8% · our estimate 71% · edge -4.1%i	1.36CLV +2.1 %	Sun, 20 Sept 2026, 21:45Sun 20 Sept21:45afternoon	Win	Olympique Marseille–Paris Saint-Germain 1–2; PSG voitti.
		Marseille come into the match after four consecutive defeats and Thursday's away match in Istanbul. PSG's Hakimi absence tempers the estimate, but the difference in rest and form lifts the away win slightly above the market anchor.
Marseille come into the match after four consecutive defeats and Thursday's away match in Istanbul. PSG's Hakimi absence tempers the estimate, but the difference in rest and form lifts the away win slightly above the market anchor.
Washington Commanders – Dallas CowboysNFL	American football🏈	Dallas Cowboys to winMatch winner (moneyline) · bet365Odds 1.48 · market 65.0% · our estimate 65% · edge -3.8%i	1.48CLV −0.7 %	Sun, 20 Sept 2026, 23:25Sun 20 Sept23:25night	Win	Washington Commanders–Dallas Cowboys 20–37; Cowboys voitti.
		Dallas are home favourites, but the sources provide no basis to raise the estimate above the market's 65%. Washington's absences are offset by Dallas's defensive losses.
Dallas are home favourites, but the sources provide no basis to raise the estimate above the market's 65%. Washington's absences are offset by Dallas's defensive losses.
Indianapolis Colts – Kansas City ChiefsNFL	American football🏈	Kansas City Chiefs to winMatch winner (moneyline) · bet365Odds 1.36 · market 70.8% · our estimate 71% · edge -3.7%i	1.36CLV −1.4 %	Mon, 21 Sept 2026, 03:20Mon 21 Sept03:20night	Loss	Indianapolis Colts–Kansas City Chiefs 20–17; Colts voitti.
		The Chiefs' rushing offence faces a Colts side that allowed 202 rushing yards in the opening week, but squad and rest advantages are not enough to deviate from the market's 70.8%.
The Chiefs' rushing offence faces a Colts side that allowed 202 rushing yards in the opening week, but squad and rest advantages are not enough to deviate from the market's 70.8%.
Value picksOur estimate beats the market
Jacksonville Jaguars – Denver BroncosNFL	American football🏈	Jacksonville Jaguars to winMatch winner (moneyline) · BetMGMOdds 2.25 · market 42.6% · our estimate 46% · edge +2.4%i	2.25CLV +1.3 %	Sun, 20 Sept 2026, 23:05Sun 20 Sept23:05night	Loss	Jacksonville Jaguars–Denver Broncos 13–20; Broncos voitti.
		Denver has six days' rest and Marvin Mims Jr. is out. Jacksonville opened the season with a 34–10 win, so we rate the underdog slightly stronger than the market.
Denver has six days' rest and Marvin Mims Jr. is out. Jacksonville opened the season with a 34–10 win, so we rate the underdog slightly stronger than the market.