Saturday 3 Oct 2026 · 17 picks · 8/17 hit · return 78.0%

Hits

8/17

of all published

Return

78.0%

flat-stake singles

Likely

5/7

return 107.1%

Specials

1/2

return 83.5%

Totals & spreads

2/7

return 58.4%

Sorceress's pick

0/1

return 0.0%

Match	Sport	Pick	Odds	Kick-off (Helsinki time)	Status	Result
LikelyOdds 1.30–1.75 · hit more often than value picks, but at short odds one loss wipes out several wins. Edge here is usually near zero or negative – no value edge, nothing is certain.
Iceland – BulgariaUEFA Nations League	Football⚽	Iceland to winMatch winner (1X2) · SuprabetsOdds 1.46 · market 65.1% · our estimate 65% · edge -5.0%i	1.46CLV +24.8 %	Sat, 3 Oct 2026, 19:00Sat 3 Oct19:00morning	Win	Iceland 3–0 Bulgaria.
		Iceland have started the group with four points and Bulgaria with one, but Iceland's squad concerns and the congested schedule keep the estimate at the market's 65.1%.
Iceland have started the group with four points and Bulgaria with one, but Iceland's squad concerns and the congested schedule keep the estimate at the market's 65.1%.
Switzerland – SloveniaUEFA Nations League	Football⚽	Switzerland to winMatch winner (1X2) · LadbrokesOdds 1.30 · market 72.6% · our estimate 73% · edge -5.6%i	1.30CLV −3.7 %	Sat, 3 Oct 2026, 21:45Sat 3 Oct21:45morning	Win	Switzerland 2–1 Slovenia.
		Switzerland have started the group with two 3–0 wins, but key absences and the congested schedule prevent a win probability higher than the market estimate.
Switzerland have started the group with two 3–0 wins, but key absences and the congested schedule prevent a win probability higher than the market estimate.
Kent State Golden Flashes – Ohio BobcatsNCAA top-25	American football🏈	Ohio Bobcats to winMatch winner · BetOnlineOdds 1.61 · market 60.3% · our estimate 60% · edge -2.9%i	1.61CLV ±0.0 %	Sat, 3 Oct 2026, 22:30Sat 3 Oct22:30night	Win	Kent State Golden Flashes 10–13 Ohio Bobcats.
		Ohio are narrow favourites overall thanks to superior rushing strength and third-down efficiency, but the QB situation and Kent State's home strength keep the estimate at market level.
Ohio are narrow favourites overall thanks to superior rushing strength and third-down efficiency, but the QB situation and Kent State's home strength keep the estimate at market level.
UMass Minutemen – Eastern Michigan EaglesNCAA top-25	American football🏈	UMass Minutemen to winMatch winner · EverygameOdds 1.49 · market 64.9% · our estimate 65% · edge -3.3%i	1.49CLV ±0.0 %	Sat, 3 Oct 2026, 22:30Sat 3 Oct22:30night	Loss	UMass Minutemen 14–38 Eastern Michigan Eagles.
		UMass have started 4–0 and have been clearly more efficient both defensively and offensively. The market's 64.9% is nevertheless justified without a source-based reason for a further increase.
UMass have started 4–0 and have been clearly more efficient both defensively and offensively. The market's 64.9% is nevertheless justified without a source-based reason for a further increase.
Tennessee Volunteers – Auburn TigersNCAA top-25	American football🏈	Tennessee Volunteers to winMatch winner · BetwayOdds 1.48 · market 65.0% · our estimate 65% · edge -3.8%i	1.48CLV +0.7 %	Sat, 3 Oct 2026, 22:30Sat 3 Oct22:30night	Win	Tennessee Volunteers 24–14 Auburn Tigers.
		Tennessee are favourites at home based on their seasonal scoring and defensive figures, but the Vols' absences limit confidence. No source-based reason was found to deviate from the 65–35 market estimate.
Tennessee are favourites at home based on their seasonal scoring and defensive figures, but the Vols' absences limit confidence. No source-based reason was found to deviate from the 65–35 market estimate.
Colorado Avalanche – St. Louis BluesNHL	Ice hockey🏒	Colorado Avalanche to win the matchMatch winner · 1xBetOdds 1.65 · market 73.5% · our estimate 74% · edge +21.3%i	1.65CLV +0.7 %	Sun, 4 Oct 2026, 04:00Sun 4 Oct04:00night	Win	Colorado Avalanche 6–1 St. Louis Blues.
		Colorado have a rest advantage and opened the season with an 8–4 win. St. Louis are playing on consecutive days, but Binnington is fresh, so the estimate is kept at the market anchor.
Colorado have a rest advantage and opened the season with an 8–4 win. St. Louis are playing on consecutive days, but Binnington is fresh, so the estimate is kept at the market anchor.
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors – San Jose State SpartansNCAA top-25	American football🏈	Hawaii Rainbow Warriors to winMatch winner · BetOnlineOdds 1.69 · market 57.1% · our estimate 57% · edge -3.5%i	1.69CLV −2.3 %	Sun, 4 Oct 2026, 07:00Sun 4 Oct07:00night	Loss	San Jose State Spartans won 20–16.
		Hawaii's strong recent home advantage supports their status as favourites, but SJSU's better early-season record and five-game head-to-head winning streak keep the estimate at market level.
Hawaii's strong recent home advantage supports their status as favourites, but SJSU's better early-season record and five-game head-to-head winning streak keep the estimate at market level.
Totals & spreadsOver/under picks call the match's total goals or points, not the winner. Odds are 1.70–2.20 and the reason is always named: pace, goaltending, absences or conditions. In ice hockey overtime and the shootout count; in football only regulation time. Spread picks call the winning margin: Lakers −4.5 wins if the Lakers win by five or more.
Ilves – Kiekko-EspooLiiga	Ice hockey🏒	Under 4.5 goalsOver/Under 4.5 goals · CasumoOdds 2.14 · market 44.4% · our estimate 49% · edge +4.9%i	2.14	Sat, 3 Oct 2026, 17:00Sat 3 Oct17:00afternoon	Loss	6–4 → 10 goals, line 4.5
		Ilves have conceded 1.6 and K-Espoo 1.7 goals per match; in addition, the teams' power play is only 18.2%. K-Espoo's consecutive matchday nevertheless increases the risk of an over result.
Ilves have conceded 1.6 and K-Espoo 1.7 goals per match; in addition, the teams' power play is only 18.2%. K-Espoo's consecutive matchday nevertheless increases the risk of an over result.
SaiPa – JokeritLiiga	Ice hockey🏒	Under 5.5 goalsOver/Under 5.5 goals · Unibet (NL)Odds 1.92 · market 51.2% · our estimate 54% · edge +3.7%i	1.92	Sat, 3 Oct 2026, 17:00Sat 3 Oct17:00afternoon	Win	3–2 → 5 goals, line 5.5
		Jokerit have scored only 2.0 goals per match and SaiPa have conceded 1.8. Jokerit's weak defence and both teams' b2b strain weigh on the under estimate, but the overall expectation still remains slightly below the line.
Jokerit have scored only 2.0 goals per match and SaiPa have conceded 1.8. Jokerit's weak defence and both teams' b2b strain weigh on the under estimate, but the overall expectation still remains slightly below the line.
Lukko – ÄssätLiiga	Ice hockey🏒	Under 5.5 goalsOver/Under 5.5 goals · 888Odds 1.70 · market 56.4% · our estimate 60% · edge +2.0%i	1.70	Sat, 3 Oct 2026, 17:00Sat 3 Oct17:00afternoon	Loss	2–5 → 7 goals, line 5.5
		Lukko's nine-match average total is only 4.3 goals and Ässät's is 4.9. Lukko have conceded 1.9 goals per match, so a low-scoring game pushes the estimate towards the under line.
Lukko's nine-match average total is only 4.3 goals and Ässät's is 4.9. Lukko have conceded 1.9 goals per match, so a low-scoring game pushes the estimate towards the under line.
Missouri Tigers – Florida GatorsNCAA top-25	American football🏈	Florida Gators −5.5 pointsHandicap −5.5 · CoolbetOdds 1.92 · market 50.8% · our estimate 53% · edge +1.8%i	1.92CLV ±0.0 %	Sat, 3 Oct 2026, 22:30Sat 3 Oct22:30night	Loss	45–17 → margin -28, line −5.5
		Florida's strong rushing attack faces Missouri without two starting edge defenders. Home advantage and Florida's wide receiver situation keep the deviation from the market modest.
Florida's strong rushing attack faces Missouri without two starting edge defenders. Home advantage and Florida's wide receiver situation keep the deviation from the market modest.
Philadelphia Flyers – Carolina HurricanesNHL	Ice hockey🏒	Over 5.5 goalsOver/Under 5.5 goals · 1xBetOdds 1.83 · market 53.0% · our estimate 56% · edge +1.6%i	1.83CLV −0.5 %	Sun, 4 Oct 2026, 02:00Sun 4 Oct02:00night	Loss	2–2 and 0–1 → 5 goals, line 5.5
		Goal totals over the last 10 games and Kochetkov's return from a long break lift the over estimate; Carolina are also playing on consecutive days.
Goal totals over the last 10 games and Kochetkov's return from a long break lift the over estimate; Carolina are also playing on consecutive days.
Toronto Maple Leafs – Ottawa SenatorsNHL	Ice hockey🏒	Over 5.5 goalsOver/Under 5.5 goals · 1xBetOdds 1.75 · market 55.5% · our estimate 58% · edge +1.5%i	1.75CLV ±0.0 %	Sun, 4 Oct 2026, 02:00Sun 4 Oct02:00night	Loss	2–3 → 5 goals, line 5.5
		Toronto's total-goals average over their last 10 games is 7.0 and Ottawa's is 6.2. In addition, the projected starters' 2025–26 save percentages were 89.1 for Ullmark and 87.7 for Bobrovsky.
Toronto's total-goals average over their last 10 games is 7.0 and Ottawa's is 6.2. In addition, the projected starters' 2025–26 save percentages were 89.1 for Ullmark and 87.7 for Bobrovsky.
Nashville Predators – Dallas StarsNHL	Ice hockey🏒	Under 5.5 goalsOver/Under 5.5 goals · 1xBetOdds 2.17 · market 44.8% · our estimate 47% · edge +2.0%i	2.17CLV −5.5 %	Sun, 4 Oct 2026, 03:00Sun 4 Oct03:00night	Win	2–1 → 3 goals, line 5.5
		Both teams' 10-game total-goals average is around 5.8. Dallas are playing on consecutive evenings, were shut out on Friday and attack without Matt Duchene.
Both teams' 10-game total-goals average is around 5.8. Dallas are playing on consecutive evenings, were shut out on Friday and attack without Matt Duchene.
SpecialsSpecials call an individual player's statistic: points, goals, assists, shots, power-play points or saves in the NHL; points, goals, assists or shots in Liiga; and points, rebounds, assists or threes in the NBA. A pick is published only with a confirmed line-up and voided if the player does not play. Odds are 1.60–2.20 and the reason is always named.
Dylan GuentherColumbus Blue Jackets – Utah Mammoth · NHL	Ice hockey🏒	Dylan Guenther Over 0.5 pointsPoints Over/Under 0.5 · BetOnlineOdds 1.67 · market 56.5% · our estimate 61% · edge +1.9%i	1.67CLV ±0.0 %	Sun, 4 Oct 2026, 02:00Sun 4 Oct02:00night	Win	2 points, line 0.5
		Guenther has recorded a point in 9/10 recent games and remains on Utah's PP1. Columbus have conceded 3.4 goals per game in the last 10-game sample.
Guenther has recorded a point in 9/10 recent games and remains on Utah's PP1. Columbus have conceded 3.4 goals per game in the last 10-game sample.
Tom WilsonTampa Bay Lightning – Washington Capitals · NHL	Ice hockey🏒	Tom Wilson Over 0.5 pointsPoints Over/Under 0.5 · BetOnlineOdds 2.03 · market 47.4% · our estimate 50% · edge +1.5%i	2.03CLV ±0.0 %	Sun, 4 Oct 2026, 02:00Sun 4 Oct02:00night	Loss	1 point, line 0.5
		Wilson is in the projected first line and on PP1. He recorded a point in 43/72 games last season, and Tampa have conceded 3.3 goals per game over their last 10 games.
Wilson is in the projected first line and on PP1. He recorded a point in 43/72 games last season, and Tampa have conceded 3.3 goals per game over their last 10 games.
Sorceress's pickAdded at the administrator's discretion after the model rejected or did not propose it. Tracked separately.
Vaasan Sport - HIFKsm-liiga	Ice hockey🏒	Vincent MarleauPlayer to score over 1.5 points · UnibetNo model estimate for this market	5.20	Sat, 3 Oct 2026, 17:00Sat 3 Oct17:00afternoon	Loss	Sport 2–3 HIFK in overtime; Vincent Marleau played and recorded 1 point (0+1).
		Today will see a high-scoring match in which Hifk's power play returns towards last season's result. Vincent Marleau is aiming to become the team's leading player following Lehterä's departure. However, Marleau has scored power-play goals well during his career.
Today will see a high-scoring match in which Hifk's power play returns towards last season's result. Vincent Marleau is aiming to become the team's leading player following Lehterä's departure. However, Marleau has scored power-play goals well during his career.