Sunday 4 Oct 2026 · 18 picks · 12/18 hit · return 113.2%

Hits

12/18

of all published

Return

113.2%

flat-stake singles

Likely

7/9

return 116.4%

Totals & spreads

5/9

return 110.0%

Match	Sport	Pick	Odds	Kick-off (Helsinki time)	Status	Result
LikelyOdds 1.30–1.75 · hit more often than value picks, but at short odds one loss wipes out several wins. Edge here is usually near zero or negative – no value edge, nothing is certain.
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo – Jiri LeheckaATP Tokyo	Tennis🎾	Jiri Lehecka to winMatch winner · StakeOdds 1.39 · market 72.0% · our estimate 72% · edge +0.1%i	1.39	Sun, 4 Oct 2026, 11:10Sun 4 Oct11:10morning	Win	Jiri Lehecka voitti 6–1, 6–1
		Lehecka is a clear favourite on hard courts, but Vallejo's strong week in Tokyo keeps the estimate at the market's 72%. Odds of 1.39 essentially reflect this level.
Lehecka is a clear favourite on hard courts, but Vallejo's strong week in Tokyo keeps the estimate at the market's 72%. Odds of 1.39 essentially reflect this level.
Sporting Gijón – Celta FortunaSegunda División	Football⚽	Sporting Gijón to winMatch winner (1X2) · PinnacleOdds 1.64 · market 58.8% · our estimate 59% · edge -3.6%i	1.64CLV −8.4 %	Sun, 4 Oct 2026, 17:15Sun 4 Oct17:15morning	Win	3–2 (Sporting Gijón voitti varsinaisella peliajalla)
		Sporting are home favourites, and Celta Fortuna have taken only one point from their last three matches. However, the extensive absences for both sides support retaining the market estimate.
Sporting are home favourites, and Celta Fortuna have taken only one point from their last three matches. However, the extensive absences for both sides support retaining the market estimate.
Malta – AndorraMaajoukkueet	Football⚽	Malta to winMatch winner (1X2) · 1xBetOdds 1.66 · market 58.5% · our estimate 58% · edge -3.0%i	1.66CLV −2.4 %	Sun, 4 Oct 2026, 19:00Sun 4 Oct19:00morning	Win	1–0 (Malta voitti varsinaisella peliajalla)
		Malta have won three of their last five matches and beat Andorra 2–1 away in September. The market's 58.4% estimate is nevertheless justified, so we do not deviate from it.
Malta have won three of their last five matches and beat Andorra 2–1 away in September. The market's 58.4% estimate is nevertheless justified, so we do not deviate from it.
Portugal – NorwayMaajoukkueet	Football⚽	Portugal to winMatch winner (1X2) · UnibetOdds 1.65 · market 57.5% · our estimate 58% · edge -5.0%i	1.65CLV −5.3 %	Sun, 4 Oct 2026, 21:45Sun 4 Oct21:45morning	Win	2–1 (Portugal voitti varsinaisella peliajalla)
		Portugal have won all three of their group matches and beat Norway 2–1 in Oslo a week ago. The 57.5% market estimate is justified; there are no clear value odds.
Portugal have won all three of their group matches and beat Norway 2–1 in Oslo a week ago. The 57.5% market estimate is justified; there are no clear value odds.
Seattle Seahawks – Los Angeles ChargersNFL	American football🏈	Seattle Seahawks to winMatch winner · CoolbetOdds 1.32 · market 74.2% · our estimate 74% · edge -2.1%i	1.32CLV −0.8 %	Sun, 4 Oct 2026, 23:25Sun 4 Oct23:25night	Win	30–23 (Seattle Seahawks voitti)
		Seattle have started 2–1 and the Chargers 0–3. Seattle are clear home favourites, but the estimate remains at the market's fair 74.2% and the selection is not considered value odds.
Seattle have started 2–1 and the Chargers 0–3. Seattle are clear home favourites, but the estimate remains at the market's fair 74.2% and the selection is not considered value odds.
Las Vegas Raiders – Kansas City ChiefsNFL	American football🏈	Kansas City Chiefs to winMatch winner · MyBookie.agOdds 1.46 · market 65.8% · our estimate 66% · edge -3.9%i	1.46CLV −1.4 %	Sun, 4 Oct 2026, 23:25Sun 4 Oct23:25night	Win	27–30 (Kansas City Chiefs voitti)
		The Chiefs have started 3–0 and have been clearly stronger than the Raiders in both total yardage and yards allowed by the defence. The market already accounts for the difference well.
The Chiefs have started 3–0 and have been clearly stronger than the Raiders in both total yardage and yards allowed by the defence. The market already accounts for the difference well.
Denver Nuggets – Utah JazzNBA	Basketball🏀	Denver Nuggets to winMatch winnerOdds 1.63 · market 59.1% · our estimate 59% · edge -3.8%i	1.63	Mon, 5 Oct 2026, 02:00Mon 5 Oct02:00night	Loss	97–109 (Utah Jazz voitti Denverissä)
		Denver are justified favourites, but this is a neutral-site pre-season game and the starting line-ups are still projected. No concrete reason was found to deviate from the market's 59%.
Denver are justified favourites, but this is a neutral-site pre-season game and the starting line-ups are still projected. No concrete reason was found to deviate from the market's 59%.
Carolina Panthers – Detroit LionsNFL	American football🏈	Detroit Lions to winMatch winner · BetwayOdds 1.53 · market 63.4% · our estimate 63% · edge -3.0%i	1.53CLV +2.7 %	Mon, 5 Oct 2026, 03:20Mon 5 Oct03:20night	Loss	32–26 (Carolina Panthers voitti)
		Detroit's offence has scored 31 points in each of their three games, and Carolina's secondary is hampered by key absences. The estimate nevertheless remains at the market's fair 63.4%.
Detroit's offence has scored 31 points in each of their three games, and Carolina's secondary is hampered by key absences. The estimate nevertheless remains at the market's fair 63.4%.
Vancouver Canucks – Vegas Golden KnightsNHL	Ice hockey🏒	Vegas Golden Knights to winMatch winner · MyBookie.agOdds 1.36 · market 70.2% · our estimate 70% · edge -4.5%i	1.36CLV +0.7 %	Mon, 5 Oct 2026, 04:00Mon 5 Oct04:00night	Win	2–3 (Vegas Golden Knights voitti varsinaisella peliajalla)
		Vegas are clear favourites, and Vancouver are playing their second game on consecutive nights. However, no sufficient additional grounds were found to deviate from the market's fair 70.2% estimate.
Vegas are clear favourites, and Vancouver are playing their second game on consecutive nights. However, no sufficient additional grounds were found to deviate from the market's fair 70.2% estimate.
Totals & spreadsOver/under picks call the match's total goals or points, not the winner. Odds are 1.70–2.20 and the reason is always named: pace, goaltending, absences or conditions. In ice hockey overtime and the shootout count; in football only regulation time. Spread picks call the winning margin: Lakers −4.5 wins if the Lakers win by five or more.
Real Sociedad B – Granada CFSegunda División	Football⚽	Over 2.5 goalsOver/Under 2.5 goals · 1xBetOdds 1.99 · market 49.2% · our estimate 56% · edge +11.4%i	1.99CLV −9.0 %	Sun, 4 Oct 2026, 15:00Sun 4 Oct15:00morning	Win	2–3 → 5 maalia, raja 2,5
		The total-goal average across each side's last five matches is at least 3.0, and Over 2.5 has landed in 7/10 matches in total. Therefore, the estimate leans more towards the Over than the market.
The total-goal average across each side's last five matches is at least 3.0, and Over 2.5 has landed in 7/10 matches in total. Therefore, the estimate leans more towards the Over than the market.
Sporting Gijón – Celta FortunaSegunda División	Football⚽	Under 2.5 goalsOver/Under 2.5 goals · 1xBetOdds 2.13 · market 47.4% · our estimate 53% · edge +12.9%i	2.13CLV +4.8 %	Sun, 4 Oct 2026, 17:15Sun 4 Oct17:15morning	Loss	3–2 → 5 maalia, raja 2,5
		Sporting's goals across seven matches are 5–6, and they are without several attacking players; this pushes the estimate towards Under 2.5 goals.
Sporting's goals across seven matches are 5–6, and they are without several attacking players; this pushes the estimate towards Under 2.5 goals.
CD Castellón – AD Ceuta FCSegunda División	Football⚽	Under 3.5 goalsOver/Under 3.5 goals · 1xBetOdds 1.94 · market 50.6% · our estimate 54% · edge +4.8%i	1.94CLV +0.5 %	Sun, 4 Oct 2026, 19:30Sun 4 Oct19:30morning	Win	1–1 → 2 maalia, raja 3,5
		Castellón have conceded only 2 goals in seven league matches, and four of their last five matches stayed under 3.5 goals. Absences are narrowing both teams' attacking options.
Castellón have conceded only 2 goals in seven league matches, and four of their last five matches stayed under 3.5 goals. Absences are narrowing both teams' attacking options.
Girona FC – MallorcaSegunda División	Football⚽	Under 2.5 goalsOver/Under 2.5 goals · 1xBetOdds 2.04 · market 48.0% · our estimate 52% · edge +6.1%i	2.04CLV +5.3 %	Sun, 4 Oct 2026, 20:00Sun 4 Oct20:00morning	Win	0–0 → 0 maalia, raja 2,5
		Mallorca have conceded only 3 goals in seven matches, and Girona go into the match without Asprilla, with several attacking players also doubtful.
Mallorca have conceded only 3 goals in seven matches, and Girona go into the match without Asprilla, with several attacking players also doubtful.
Netherlands – SerbiaMaajoukkueet	Football⚽	Under 3.5 goalsOver/Under 3.5 goals · 1xBetOdds 1.90 · market 51.4% · our estimate 55% · edge +4.5%i	1.90CLV −3.1 %	Sun, 4 Oct 2026, 21:45Sun 4 Oct21:45morning	Win	2–1 → 3 maalia, raja 3,5
		Seven of the 10 team-specific results from recent matches stayed under 3.5 goals. Serbia's attack is weakened by Vlahović's absence, and the first leg ended 2–1.
Seven of the 10 team-specific results from recent matches stayed under 3.5 goals. Serbia's attack is weakened by Vlahović's absence, and the first leg ended 2–1.
Kosovo – AustriaUEFA Nations League	Football⚽	Over 2.5 goalsOver/Under 2.5 goals · CasumoOdds 2.10 · market 47.2% · our estimate 52% · edge +9.2%i	2.10CLV −15.7 %	Sun, 4 Oct 2026, 19:00Sun 4 Oct19:00afternoon	Loss	1–1 → 2 maalia, raja 2,5
		Austria's last five matches have averaged 4.2 goals and every one went Over 2.5. The head-to-head a week ago also finished 3–1, so the estimate leans towards the Over market.
Austria's last five matches have averaged 4.2 goals and every one went Over 2.5. The head-to-head a week ago also finished 3–1, so the estimate leans towards the Over market.
Las Palmas – Real Valladolid CFSegunda División	Football⚽	Over 2.5 goalsOver/Under 2.5 goals · 1xBetOdds 2.03 · market 47.8% · our estimate 51% · edge +3.5%i	2.03CLV −16.0 %	Sun, 4 Oct 2026, 19:30Sun 4 Oct19:30afternoon	Win	2–2 → 4 maalia, raja 2,5
		The goal count has risen in Las Palmas' recent matches, and their severely depleted defence faces Valladolid, who have scored six goals but kept only one clean sheet in seven rounds.
The goal count has risen in Las Palmas' recent matches, and their severely depleted defence faces Valladolid, who have scored six goals but kept only one clean sheet in seven rounds.
Anaheim Ducks – Florida PanthersNHL	Ice hockey🏒	Over 6.5 goalsOver/Under 6.5 goals · 1xBetOdds 2.20 · market 47.5% · our estimate 51% · edge +11.1%i	2.20CLV +2.7 %	Mon, 5 Oct 2026, 03:00Mon 5 Oct03:00night	Loss	2–2 ja 1–0 → 5 maalia, raja 6,5
		Anaheim's 10-game total-goals average is 7.2 and the team have conceded 4.0 goals per game. Dostal is only a projected starter; his 2025–26 save percentage was 88.8.
Anaheim's 10-game total-goals average is 7.2 and the team have conceded 4.0 goals per game. Dostal is only a projected starter; his 2025–26 save percentage was 88.8.
Carolina Panthers – Detroit LionsNFL	American football🏈	Detroit Lions −3.5 pointsHandicap −3.5 · CoolbetOdds 1.91 · market 51.2% · our estimate 54% · edge +3.1%i	1.91CLV +2.7 %	Mon, 5 Oct 2026, 03:20Mon 5 Oct03:20night	Loss	32–26 → marginaali -6, linja −3,5
		Detroit's 12-sack pass rush faces a Carolina offence without starting left guard Damien Lewis. Xavier Legette is also absent and Jalen Coker is unlikely to play.
Detroit's 12-sack pass rush faces a Carolina offence without starting left guard Damien Lewis. Xavier Legette is also absent and Jalen Coker is unlikely to play.