Monday 12 Oct 2026 · 10 picks · 7/10 hit · return 129.7%

Hits

7/10

of all published

Return

129.7%

flat-stake singles

Value picks

2/2

return 209.5%

Likely

2/3

return 98.3%

Totals & spreads

3/5

return 116.6%

MatchSportPickOddsKick-off (Helsinki time)StatusResult
LikelyOdds 1.30–1.75 · hit more often than value picks, but at short odds one loss wipes out several wins. Edge here is usually near zero or negative – no value edge, nothing is certain.
Atalanta BC – VeneziaSerie AFootballAtalanta BC to winMatch winner (1X2) · 1xBetnote: I. Hien, O. Kossounou, K. Sulemana not in the squadOdds 1.60 · market 61.6% · our estimate 62% · edge -1.4%i1.60CLV −1.9 %Mon, 12 Oct 2026, 19:30morningWin3–1 (Atalanta voitti)

Atalanta are clear home favourites against a Venezia side that have lost all five of their league matches this season, but the hosts' poor start to the season and centre-back absences limit the estimate.

IF Elfsborg – Halmstads BKAllsvenskanFootballIF Elfsborg to winMatch winner (1X2) · Betssonnote: P. Frick, M. Rohdén not in the squadOdds 1.35 · market 70.3% · our estimate 70% · edge -5.1%i1.35CLV −4.3 %Mon, 12 Oct 2026, 20:00morningWin4–0 (IF Elfsborg voitti)

Elfsborg are fourth in the league with a 6–3–2 home record, while bottom side Halmstad are 0–3–8 away. There is nevertheless insufficient source-based justification to deviate from the market.

Los Angeles Rams – Buffalo BillsNFLAmerican footballLos Angeles Rams to winMatch winner (1X2) · MarathonbetOdds 1.68 · market 56.3% · our estimate 56% · edge -5.5%i1.68CLV +1.3 %Tue, 13 Oct 2026, 03:15nightLossLos Angeles Rams 34–37 Buffalo Bills jatkoajan jälkeen; Buffalo voitti.

The Rams are home favourites, and Buffalo are without Ed Oliver and Josh Palmer. However, the Bills' better defensive average over 10 games prevents us from rating the Rams above the market estimate.

Value picksOur estimate beats the market
Malmo FF – Kalmar FFAllsvenskanFootballMalmo FF to winMatch winner (1X2) · Coolbetnote: P. Jansson, K. Paananen not in the squadBlind estimate 63% · market 53.3% · edge +11.5%i1.77CLV −2.3 %Mon, 12 Oct 2026, 20:00morningWin1–0 (Malmo FF voitti)

Why we think the market is wrong: Malmö are clear home favourites: Kalmar's league away record is 0–2–9 (goals 7–19), and Malmö have three more full rest days.

Malmö are clear home favourites: Kalmar's league away record is 0–2–9 (goals 7–19), and Malmö have three more full rest days. Malmö's six absences limit the estimate.

Torino – UdineseSerie AFootballTorino to winMatch winner (1X2) · Pinnaclenote: F. Israel, I. Gueye not in the squadBlind estimate 45% · market 40.0% · edge +8.9%i2.42CLV −5.1 %Mon, 12 Oct 2026, 21:45morningWin2–1 (Torino voitti)

Why we think the market is wrong: Torino have started the league better than Udinese, have home advantage and have had seven more days' rest.

Torino have started the league better than Udinese, have home advantage and have had seven more days' rest. Udinese's absences affect key playing roles more clearly than Torino's.

Totals & spreadsOver/under picks call the match's total goals or points, not the winner. Odds are 1.70–2.20 and the reason is always named: pace, goaltending, absences or conditions. In ice hockey overtime and the shootout count; in football only regulation time. Spread picks call the winning margin: Lakers −4.5 wins if the Lakers win by five or more.
Eyüpspor – GoztepeSüper LigFootballOver 2.5 goalsOver/Under 2.5 goals · 1xBetnote: Allan Godói not in the squadOdds 1.80 · market 54.2% · our estimate 58% · edge +4.4%i1.80CLV −2.7 %Mon, 12 Oct 2026, 20:00morningWin0–4 → 4 maalia, raja 2,5

In Göztepe's 10-match sample, 8/10 exceeded the line, and three centre-backs are absent from their defence. Attacking absences temper the estimate, but the overall picture leans Over.

Chapecoense – Atletico ParanaenseBrasileirão Série AFootballOver 2.5 goalsOver/Under 2.5 goals · 1xBetOdds 1.93 · market 50.3% · our estimate 54% · edge +4.2%i1.93CLV +11.0 %Tue, 13 Oct 2026, 01:30morningWin1–4 → 5 maalia, raja 2,5

The goal environment in recent matches supports Over: Chapecoense's total average is 3.0 and Athletico's is 3.8. However, the storm warning limits the increase.

Coritiba – BotafogoBrasileirão Série AFootballOver 2.5 goalsOver/Under 2.5 goals · LeoVegasnote: Bruno Melo, Lucas Ronier, J. Barrera not in the squadOdds 1.71 · market 56.8% · our estimate 61% · edge +4.3%i1.71CLV +23.5 %Mon, 12 Oct 2026, 22:00nightLoss1–1 → 2 maalia, raja 2,5

Coritiba's average total goals over 10 games is 3.2 and seven games exceeded the line; both defensive lines are changed in the confirmed line-ups.

New Jersey Devils – Ottawa SenatorsNHLIce hockeyUnder 5.5 goalsOver/Under 5.5 goals · 1xBetOdds 2.10 · market 46.4% · our estimate 51% · edge +7.1%i2.10CLV −17.6 %Tue, 13 Oct 2026, 02:00nightWin1–4 → 5 maalia, raja 5,5

Ullmark is the confirmed starter and Ottawa have conceded only 2.2 goals per game in five games. Daws adds Over risk, but New Jersey's attacking average of 2.5 goals narrowly supports the Under selection.

Minnesota Wild – Vegas Golden KnightsNHLIce hockeyUnder 5.5 goalsOver/Under 5.5 goals · CasumoOdds 2.14 · market 45.6% · our estimate 49% · edge +4.9%i2.14CLV −1.4 %Tue, 13 Oct 2026, 03:00nightLoss4–2 → 6 maalia, raja 5,5

Wallstedt's confirmed start, 93.6% save percentage and Minnesota conceding 1.8 goals per game tilt the estimate slightly towards Under versus the market.