Friday 16 Oct 2026 · 28 picks · 18/28 hit · return 113.9%

Hits

18/28

of all published

Return

113.9%

flat-stake singles

Value picks

1/1

return 251.0%

Specials

1/1

return 181.0%

Likely

8/12

return 100.6%

Totals & spreads

8/13

return 119.3%

Sorceress's pick

0/1

return 0.0%

MatchSportPickOddsKick-off (Helsinki time)StatusResult
LikelyOdds 1.30–1.75 · hit more often than value picks, but at short odds one loss wipes out several wins. Edge here is usually near zero or negative – no value edge, nothing is certain.
IF Brommapojkarna – Djurgardens IFAllsvenskanFootballDjurgardens IF to winMatch winner (1X2) · Unibet (SE)note: M. Tenho not in the squadOdds 1.50 · market 65.2% · our estimate 65% · edge -2.3%i1.50CLV −0.7 %Fri, 16 Oct 2026, 20:00morningWin0–2 (Djurgardens IF voitti)

Djurgården's recent results and defence are clearly stronger, but Tenho's suspension levels the playing field. The estimate is kept at the market's fair 65.2%.

Žalgiris – Anadolu EfesEuroLeagueBasketballŽalgiris to winMatch winner · 1xBetOdds 1.38 · market 69.9% · our estimate 70% · edge -3.5%i1.38CLV +0.7 %Fri, 16 Oct 2026, 20:00morningLossŽalgiris hävisi Anadolu Efesille 70–85.

Žalgiris are justified favourites at home, as their early-season attacking and shooting figures are better than Efes's. However, the public absences are known to the market, so the estimate is kept at the fair market estimate.

Heerenveen – ExcelsiorEredivisieFootballHeerenveen to winMatch winner (1X2) · Unibet (NL)Odds 1.62 · market 60.2% · our estimate 60% · edge -2.5%i1.62CLV +1.3 %Fri, 16 Oct 2026, 21:00morningWin4–0 (Heerenveen voitti)

Heerenveen are clear favourites at home, but Proper's absence levels the playing field. Sources provide insufficient grounds to deviate from the market's 60.2% estimate.

KK Crvena zvezda – Paris BasketballEuroLeagueBasketballKK Crvena zvezda to winMatch winner · 1xBetOdds 1.32 · market 73.1% · our estimate 73% · edge -3.5%i1.32CLV −3.0 %Fri, 16 Oct 2026, 21:00morningWinKK Crvena zvezda voitti Paris Basketballin 90–81.

Zvezda have defended clearly better than Paris across five EuroLeague matches and are at home. Line-up concerns on both sides keep the estimate at market level.

Virtus Segafredo Bologna – Saski BaskoniaEuroLeagueBasketballVirtus Segafredo Bologna to winMatch winner · LiveScore BetOdds 1.46 · market 64.9% · our estimate 65% · edge -5.3%i1.46CLV −2.7 %Fri, 16 Oct 2026, 21:30morningWinVirtus Segafredo Bologna voitti Saski Baskonian 86–78.

Virtus have won their last three EuroLeague matches, while Baskonia's record is 1–4 and their defence has conceded 95.6 points per game. The market's 64.9% estimate is nevertheless balanced.

HPK – IlvesLiigaIce hockeyIlves to win the matchMatch winner · 888Odds 1.44 · market 65.6% · our estimate 68% · edge -2.1%i1.44CLV ±0.0 %Fri, 16 Oct 2026, 18:30afternoonLossHPK voitti Ilveksen varsinaisella peliajalla 3–1.

Ilves have been clearly more efficient and tighter than HPK across the last 10 matches. HPK are also playing on consecutive days, while Ilves had two days off.

Tappara – LukkoLiigaIce hockeyTappara to win (incl. overtime)Match winner (incl. overtime) · 888Odds 1.50 · market 63.4% · our estimate 63% · edge -4.9%i1.50CLV −0.7 %Fri, 16 Oct 2026, 18:30afternoonLossTappara hävisi Lukolle 1–2.

Tappara have been more efficient and tighter than Lukko across the last 10 matches, and their special-teams advantages are clear. However, there is insufficient additional justification for deviating from the market estimate.

RoKi – PyryMestisIce hockeyRoKi to win (incl. overtime and shootout)Match winner (incl. overtime and shootout) · BetssonOdds 1.51 · market 61.9% · our estimate 62% · edge -6.5%i1.51CLV −0.7 %Fri, 16 Oct 2026, 18:30afternoonWinRoKi voitti Pyryn 6–2.

RoKi have been stronger than Pyry in early-season goal and special-teams statistics, but the information provides no reason to deviate from the market's fair 61.9%.

Beşiktaş J.K. – FC Bayern MünchenEuroLeagueBasketballBeşiktaş J.K. to winMatch winner · UnibetOdds 1.60 · market 59.8% · our estimate 60% · edge -4.3%i1.60CLV +2.6 %Fri, 16 Oct 2026, 20:00afternoonWinBeşiktaş J.K. voitti FC Bayern Münchenin 95–87.

Beşiktaş's attacking and home advantages support their status as favourites, but weak defence and Bayern's favourable arrangement of staying in the same arena prevent a figure higher than the market estimate.

FC Barcelona Bàsquet – OlympiacosEuroLeagueBasketballOlympiacos to winMatch winner · LiveScore BetOdds 1.57 · market 60.5% · our estimate 61% · edge -5.0%i1.57CLV ±0.0 %Fri, 16 Oct 2026, 21:30afternoonWinOlympiacos voitti FC Barcelona Bàsquetin 105–100.

Olympiacos have been more efficient in attack and started the EuroLeague 4–1. Dorsey's absence and Barcelona's home advantage nevertheless keep the estimate exactly at the market's 60.5%.

Tulane Green Wave – Memphis TigersNCAA top-25American footballMemphis Tigers to winMatch winner · BetwayOdds 1.40 · market 68.2% · our estimate 68% · edge -4.5%i1.40CLV −1.4 %Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 02:30nightLossTulane Green Wave voitti Memphis Tigersin 31–17.

Memphis have started 5–1 and scored 38.5 points per game over six games, while Tulane have managed 18.4 points per game over five. The estimate is kept at the market's fair 68.2%.

Colorado Avalanche – Pittsburgh PenguinsNHLIce hockeyColorado Avalanche to win (incl. overtime)Match winner (incl. overtime) · PinnacleOdds 1.49 · market 65.4% · our estimate 65% · edge -2.7%i1.49CLV −0.7 %Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 04:00nightWinColorado Avalanche voitti Pittsburgh Penguinsin 5–2.

Colorado are clear favourites for the match because of their strong 5v5 play and home advantage, but the congested schedule, absences in attack and Blackwood's early-season save percentage limit the estimate.

Value picksOur estimate beats the market
Frosinone – SassuoloSerie AFootballFrosinone to winMatch winner (1X2) · 1xBetBlind estimate 44% · market 39.2% · edge +10.4%i2.51CLV −9.2 %Fri, 16 Oct 2026, 21:45morningWin4–2 (Frosinone voitti)

Why we think the market is wrong: Frosinone's home record is 2–0–1 and Sassuolo's away record is 0–1–2.

Frosinone's home record is 2–0–1 and Sassuolo's away record is 0–1–2. Sassuolo's greater burden of absences, particularly in defence, tilts the estimate towards the home side.

Totals & spreadsOver/under picks call the match's total goals or points, not the winner. Odds are 1.70–2.20 and the reason is always named: pace, goaltending, absences or conditions. In ice hockey overtime and the shootout count; in football only regulation time. Spread picks call the winning margin: Lakers −4.5 wins if the Lakers win by five or more.
Žalgiris – Anadolu EfesEuroLeagueBasketballUnder 168.5 pointsOver/Under 168.5 points · MarathonbetOdds 1.91 · market 50.8% · our estimate 55% · edge +5.1%i1.91CLV −2.0 %Fri, 16 Oct 2026, 20:00morningWin70–85 → 155 pistettä, raja 168,5

The five-match total averages are close to the line, but Žalgiris's slow tempo and the absences of Efes's Mike James and Isaia Cordinier push the estimate towards under.

AC Horsens – Randers FCSuperliga (DEN)FootballOver 2.5 goalsOver/Under 2.5 goals · Unibet (NL)Odds 1.85 · market 52.2% · our estimate 56% · edge +3.6%i1.85CLV +1.7 %Fri, 16 Oct 2026, 20:00morningLoss0–0 → 0 maalia, raja 2,5

Nine of Horsens's last 10 matches and seven of Randers's exceeded 2.5 goals. The absence of four Randers defenders adds uncertainty to the away defence.

Guingamp – Pau FCLigue 2FootballOver 2.5 goalsOver/Under 2.5 goals · Casumonote: D. Gomis, A. Demouchy, K. Gasnier not in the squadOdds 1.87 · market 52.7% · our estimate 57% · edge +6.6%i1.87CLV +7.6 %Fri, 16 Oct 2026, 21:00morningWin1–2 → 3 maalia, raja 2,5

Seven of Guingamp's 10-match sample exceeded the line, and the suspensions of two centre-backs force the team into an experimental defensive line.

Stade de Reims – DijonLigue 2FootballOver 2.5 goalsOver/Under 2.5 goals · 1xBetnote: M. Gbane, J. Okumu, Lenny Sylla, A. Tia, C. Obongo, Y. Aka not in the squadOdds 1.70 · market 56.7% · our estimate 61% · edge +3.7%i1.70CLV +26.1 %Fri, 16 Oct 2026, 21:00morningWin4–2 → 6 maalia, raja 2,5

Both ten-match samples produced plenty of goals: Reims's total average was 3.0 and Dijon's 3.4. Over 2.5 landed in 13/20 matches combined.

Annecy FC – NancyLigue 2FootballUnder 2.5 goalsOver/Under 2.5 goals · PinnacleOdds 1.83 · market 52.8% · our estimate 56% · edge +2.5%i1.83CLV +19.8 %Fri, 16 Oct 2026, 21:00morningLoss1–2 → 3 maalia, raja 2,5

Only 6 of the teams' 16 listed Ligue 2 matches exceeded 2.5 goals, and the average total-goal count was 2.19. A full week's recovery reduces variance caused by fixture congestion.

Pelicans – SportLiigaIce hockeyUnder 4.5 goalsOver/Under 4.5 goals · 1xBetOdds 2.15 · market 44.4% · our estimate 48% · edge +3.2%i2.15CLV −20.9 %Fri, 16 Oct 2026, 18:30afternoonWin1–2 → 3 maalia, raja 4,5

The teams' 10-match goal environments are low: Pelicans matches average 4.7 and Sport matches 4.0 goals. Sport's strong 85.7% penalty kill supports the Under.

Rapid Vienna – TSV HartbergItävallan BundesliigaFootballOver 3.5 goalsOver/Under 3.5 goals · GrosvenorOdds 1.93 · market 50.3% · our estimate 54% · edge +4.2%i1.93Fri, 16 Oct 2026, 20:30afternoonWin3–1 → 4 maalia, raja 3,5

Hartberg's last five matches produced 25 goals, and the team have scored 2.3 and conceded 1.6 goals per match in a 10-game sample.

Guingamp – Pau FCLigue 2FootballOver 2.5 goalsOver/Under 2.5 goals · Casumonote: D. Gomis, A. Demouchy, J. Benet not in the squadOdds 1.89 · market 52.4% · our estimate 54% · edge +2.1%i1.89CLV +9.7 %Fri, 16 Oct 2026, 21:00afternoonWin1–2 → 3 maalia, raja 2,5

Guingamp's centre-back pairing of Gomis–Demouchy is absent through suspension. In the home team's 10-match sample, 7/10 matches exceeded 2.5 goals, so the direction changes to an Over bet.

Panathinaikos – Hapoel Tel AvivEuroLeagueBasketballPanathinaikos −9.5 pointsHandicap −9.5 · 888Odds 2.00 · market 48.9% · our estimate 53% · edge +6.0%i2.00CLV −0.5 %Fri, 16 Oct 2026, 21:15afternoonLoss81–91 → marginaali -10, linja −9,5

Panathinaikos have won all five of their EuroLeague matches by at least 17 points. Hapoel have one fewer recovery day, but the home team's absences limit the estimate.

Virtus Segafredo Bologna – Saski BaskoniaEuroLeagueBasketballVirtus Segafredo Bologna −5.5 pointsHandicap −5.5 · 888Odds 2.00 · market 49.6% · our estimate 55% · edge +10.0%i2.00line movedFri, 16 Oct 2026, 21:30afternoonWin86–78 → marginaali +8, linja −5,5

Baskonia have conceded 95.6 points per match across five EuroLeague fixtures. The coaching change and Markus Howard's departure just before the away game add uncertainty to the rotation.

Eintracht Frankfurt – 1. FC KölnBundesliigaFootballOver 3.5 goalsOver/Under 3.5 goals · 1xBetnote: E. Skhiri not in the squadOdds 1.91 · market 52.0% · our estimate 55% · edge +5.1%i1.91CLV +2.2 %Fri, 16 Oct 2026, 21:30afternoonLoss1–0 → 1 maalia, raja 3,5

Frankfurt's five league matches have averaged 5.0 goals and all have exceeded 3.5. Köln are without two centre-backs, although their attack is also depleted.

Deportivo La Coruña – LevanteLa LigaFootballOver 2.5 goalsOver/Under 2.5 goals · 1xBetOdds 1.92 · market 51.9% · our estimate 54% · edge +3.7%i1.92CLV −3.1 %Fri, 16 Oct 2026, 22:00nightLoss1–1 → 2 maalia, raja 2,5

Levante's matches have seen plenty of goals, their defence has leaked goals and Deportivo have conceded in all their league matches. Aubameyang's absence, however, tempers the Over estimate.

Colorado Avalanche – Pittsburgh PenguinsNHLIce hockeyOver 6.5 goalsOver/Under 6.5 goals · 1xBetOdds 2.06 · market 50.2% · our estimate 54% · edge +11.2%i2.06CLV +2.2 %Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 04:00nightWin5–2 → 7 maalia, raja 6,5

Colorado have scored 4.4 and Pittsburgh 3.6 goals per game. Blackwood's 87.9% and projected Silovs' 88.5% save percentages narrowly support Over 6.5 goals.

SpecialsSpecials call an individual player's statistic: points, goals, assists, shots, power-play points or saves in the NHL; points, goals, assists or shots in Liiga; and points, rebounds, assists or threes in the NBA. A pick is published only with a confirmed line-up and voided if the player does not play. Odds are 1.60–2.20 and the reason is always named.
Roni HirvonenJYP – Kärpät · LiigaIce hockeyRoni Hirvonen Over 0.5 pointsPoints Over/Under 0.5 · UnibetOdds 1.81 · market 50.8% · our estimate 60% · edge +8.6%i1.81CLV −1.1 %Fri, 16 Oct 2026, 19:30afternoonWin2 pistettä, raja 0,5

Last 20: 13/20 over 0.5 · TOI 19:17

Hirvonen has recorded a point in 6/10 recent matches and is confirmed on Kärpät's first line. JYP have conceded 2.4 goals per match over the last ten.

Sorceress's pickAdded at the administrator's discretion after the model rejected or did not propose it. Tracked separately.
HPK-IlvesSM-liigaIce hockeyLuke HenmanPlayer points Over 1.5 · BetsafeNo model estimate for this market3.40Fri, 16 Oct 2026, 18:30morningLossHPK–Ilves 3–1; Luke Henman pelasi ja jäi 0 pisteeseen.

HPK played yesterday and, with the rest advantage, Ilves come in fresh. Henman has been producing points well and, as the first-line centre, he and Lööke, who has found his form, make a good pairing.