Sunday 18 Oct 2026 · 25 picks · 11/25 hit · return 76.5%

Hits

11/25

of all published

Return

76.5%

flat-stake singles

Likely

6/12

return 79.2%

Totals & spreads

5/13

return 74.0%

MatchSportPickOddsKick-off (Helsinki time)StatusResult
LikelyOdds 1.30–1.75 · hit more often than value picks, but at short odds one loss wipes out several wins. Edge here is usually near zero or negative – no value edge, nothing is certain.
SC Cambuur – AZ AlkmaarEredivisieFootballAZ Alkmaar to winMatch winner (1X2) · Unibetnote: J. Amofa not in the squadOdds 1.50 · market 62.9% · our estimate 63% · edge -5.6%i1.50↓ 1.47CLV +1.4 ppSun, 18 Oct 2026, 15:30morningLoss2–2 (tasapeli)

AZ's start to the season and goal profile are clearly stronger than Cambuur's, but short recovery from European football and absences prevent an increase in the market estimate.

Bayer Leverkusen – SC FreiburgBundesliigaFootballBayer Leverkusen to winMatch winner (1X2) · Coolbetnote: E. Ben Seghir, Y. Suzuki not in the squadOdds 1.73 · market 56.0% · our estimate 56% · edge -3.1%i1.73↓ 1.65CLV +2.8 ppSun, 18 Oct 2026, 16:30morningWin2–1 (Bayer Leverkusen voitti)

Leverkusen are home favourites and have a strong predicted starting XI, but Freiburg's better start to the league campaign and Bayer's absences keep the estimate at the market's 56%.

Molde – IK StartEliteserienFootballMolde to winMatch winner (1X2) · Pinnaclenote: E. Hestad, S. Hansen, H. Stenevik, J. Husebø, F. Manojlović not in the squadOdds 1.38 · market 69.3% · our estimate 69% · edge -4.4%i1.38→ 1.38CLV 0.0 ppSun, 18 Oct 2026, 18:00morningWin6–1 (Molde voitti)

Molde are fourth in the league and Start are bottom, but Molde's several significant absences temper the favourite estimate. The market's 69.3% looks balanced.

Nottingham Forest – ArsenalValioliigaFootballArsenal to winMatch winner (1X2) · 1xBetnote: W. Saliba, P. Hincapié, C. Tzolis, Igor Jesus not in the squadOdds 1.62 · market 60.9% · our estimate 61% · edge -1.3%i1.62↓ 1.51CLV +4.5 ppSun, 18 Oct 2026, 18:30morningWin0–1 (Arsenal voitti)

Arsenal are clear favourites based on their better start to the season and 10-match goal averages of 2.1–0.7. Absences and the Bayern match in three days prevent us from raising the estimate above the market.

FC Twente Enschede – FC UtrechtEredivisieFootballFC Twente Enschede to winMatch winner (1X2) · Coralnote: L. Unnerstall, M. Bruns, S. Lemkin not in the squadOdds 1.40 · market 68.2% · our estimate 68% · edge -4.5%i1.40↓ 1.35CLV +2.7 ppSun, 18 Oct 2026, 21:00morningLoss1–2 (Utrecht voitti)

Twente are clear favourites based on form, league position and Utrecht's defensive figures. However, Unnerstall's absence and three days' recovery prevent us from raising the estimate above the market.

Brighton and Hove Albion – Crystal PalaceValioliigaFootballBrighton and Hove Albion to winMatch winner (1X2) · 1xBetnote: K. Mitoma, Y. Minteh, M. Wieffer, A. Disasi, C. Riad not in the squadOdds 1.51 · market 65.2% · our estimate 65% · edge -1.6%i1.51↓ 1.43CLV +3.7 ppSun, 18 Oct 2026, 16:00afternoonWin5–0 (Brighton voitti)

Brighton are clear favourites due to their strong attacking form and home advantage, but numerous absences and Palace's good derby record keep the estimate at market level.

Örgryte IS – GAISAllsvenskanFootballGAIS to winMatch winner (1X2) · CoolbetOdds 1.60 · market 60.0% · our estimate 60% · edge -4.0%i1.60↓ 1.58CLV +0.8 ppSun, 18 Oct 2026, 17:30afternoonLoss4–2 (Orgryte IS voitti)

GAIS are clearly ahead of Örgryte in seasonal xG figures and recent goal difference. However, the sources provide no grounds to raise the estimate above the market's 60%.

Basaksehir – Gazişehir GaziantepSüper LigFootballBasaksehir to winMatch winner (1X2) · 1xBetnote: F. Bavuk, N. Sangaré not in the squadOdds 1.70 · market 57.1% · our estimate 57% · edge -2.9%i1.70↑ 1.76CLV −2.0 ppSun, 18 Oct 2026, 19:00afternoonWin2–1 (Başakşehir voitti)

Başakşehir are home favourites, but the teams have identical records from seven league matches. The absences do not provide sufficient grounds to raise the estimate above the market's 57.1%.

FC Copenhagen – AGF AarhusSuperliga (DEN)FootballFC Copenhagen to winMatch winner (1X2) · UnibetOdds 1.60 · market 58.8% · our estimate 59% · edge -5.9%i1.60↑ 1.64CLV −1.5 ppSun, 18 Oct 2026, 19:00afternoonLoss1–1 (tasapeli)

FCK's form and home advantage support their status as favourites, but AGF's strong head-to-head history and both sides' European commitments prevent an estimate above the market.

Tromso – KFUM OsloEliteserienFootballTromso to winMatch winner (1X2) · LeoVegas (SE)Odds 1.47 · market 63.7% · our estimate 64% · edge -6.4%i1.47↑ 1.48CLV −0.5 ppSun, 18 Oct 2026, 20:15afternoonLoss1–1 (tasapeli)

Tromso have been strong at Romssa Arena, while KFUM's away record is weak. KFUM's recent form and Tromso's defensive absences prevent us from raising the estimate above the market anchor.

Minnesota Wild – Columbus Blue JacketsNHLIce hockeyMinnesota Wild to win (incl. overtime and shootout)Match winner (incl. overtime and shootout) · PinnacleOdds 1.56 · market 62.5% · our estimate 63% · edge -2.5%i1.56↓ 1.53CLV +1.3 ppMon, 19 Oct 2026, 01:00nightWinMinnesota Wild voitti 2–1 varsinaisella peliajalla.

Wallstedt has been confirmed in goal for Minnesota, Columbus are playing on consecutive days and Talbot is projected to start. The factors support favourite status, but not a deviation from the market estimate.

Calgary Flames – Carolina HurricanesNHLIce hockeyCarolina Hurricanes to win (incl. overtime and shootout)Match winner (incl. overtime and shootout) · PinnacleOdds 1.47 · market 66.4% · our estimate 66% · edge -2.4%i1.47↓ 1.45CLV +0.9 ppMon, 19 Oct 2026, 03:00nightLossCalgary Flames voitti Carolina Hurricanesin 3–2 varsinaisella peliajalla.

Carolina have won seven in a row, while Calgary's record is 1–6–0. However, the Hurricanes' consecutive game day and absences prevent us from raising the estimate above the market anchor.

Totals & spreadsOver/under picks call the match's total goals or points, not the winner. Odds are 1.70–2.20 and the reason is always named: pace, goaltending, absences or conditions. In ice hockey overtime and the shootout count; in football only regulation time. Spread picks call the winning margin: Lakers −4.5 wins if the Lakers win by five or more.
Udinese – LecceSerie AFootballUnder 2.5 goalsOver/Under 2.5 goals · CoolbetOdds 1.89 · market 52.5% · our estimate 56% · edge +5.8%i1.89↓ 1.87CLV +0.6 ppSun, 18 Oct 2026, 13:30morningLoss0–3 → 3 maalia, raja 2,5

Udinese are without three players listed as forwards, including Zaniolo, and Lecce will be without Ilić, who has featured in the starting XI. This moderately supports the Under direction.

Bournemouth – SunderlandValioliigaFootballOver 2.5 goalsOver/Under 2.5 goals · Pinnaclenote: D. Ballard, T. Meunier, R. Mundle, W. Isidor, J. Araujo, E. Kroupi, A. Scott not in the squadOdds 1.99 · market 49.9% · our estimate 54% · edge +7.5%i1.99↑ 2.36CLV −7.9 ppSun, 18 Oct 2026, 16:00morningLoss2–0 → 2 maalia, raja 2,5

Bournemouth's 10-match goal profile has been high, and Sunderland are without two defenders. Both teams having only three days' recovery slightly raises the Over 2.5 goals estimate.

Molde – IK StartEliteserienFootballUnder 3.5 goalsOver/Under 3.5 goals · Pinnaclenote: E. Hestad, H. Stenevik not in the squadOdds 1.97 · market 49.5% · our estimate 53% · edge +4.4%i1.97↑ 2.01CLV −1.0 ppSun, 18 Oct 2026, 18:00morningLoss6–1 → 7 maalia, raja 3,5

Cup matches inflate the all-competitions goal averages. In the league sample, Over 3.5 landed only 6/13 times, and Molde's 11-goal Hestad is out.

Borussia Monchengladbach – TSG HoffenheimBundesliigaFootballOver 3.5 goalsOver/Under 3.5 goals · 1xBetOdds 2.06 · market 47.9% · our estimate 52% · edge +7.1%i2.06↓ 2.00CLV +1.5 ppSun, 18 Oct 2026, 18:30morningLoss1–2 → 3 maalia, raja 3,5

The teams' 10-match total goal averages are 4.6 and 4.0. Hoffenheim's short recovery and the absences of Itakura, Bernardoa and Hajdaria increase defensive risk.

Sampdoria – ArezzoSerie BFootballOver 2.5 goalsOver/Under 2.5 goals · Pinnaclenote: L. Insigne, S. Esposito, M. Olivieri not in the squadOdds 2.04 · market 47.7% · our estimate 53% · edge +8.1%i2.04↓ 2.01CLV +0.7 ppSun, 18 Oct 2026, 20:30morningWin1–2 → 3 maalia, raja 2,5

Four of both teams' six league matches have gone Over 2.5 goals, and each has conceded 13 goals. The key attacking options are included in the predicted starting XIs.

FC Twente Enschede – FC UtrechtEredivisieFootballUnder 3.5 goalsOver/Under 3.5 goals · Pinnaclenote: Artem Stepanov, L. Unnerstall, K. Paredes not in the squadOdds 1.93 · market 50.6% · our estimate 54% · edge +4.2%i1.93↓ 1.80CLV +3.7 ppSun, 18 Oct 2026, 21:00morningWin1–2 → 3 maalia, raja 3,5

Twente have conceded only 0.8 goals per match in a 10-game sample, and Utrecht are without five-goal Artem Stepanov and other attacking options.

Leeds United – Manchester UnitedValioliigaFootballOver 2.5 goalsOver/Under 2.5 goals · Pinnaclenote: J. Rodon, D. James not in the squadOdds 1.93 · market 51.1% · our estimate 53% · edge +2.3%i1.93↑ 1.95CLV −0.5 ppSun, 18 Oct 2026, 16:00afternoonLoss1–1 → 2 maalia, raja 2,5

The teams' average total goals over 10 matches are 3.0 and 3.5. Rodon's absence and United's depleted defence lift the Over estimate slightly, although Šeško is absent.

Granada CF – Cádiz CFSegunda DivisiónFootballOver 2.5 goalsOver/Under 2.5 goals · Pinnaclenote: Raúl Lizoain, Alejandro Marqués not in the squadOdds 2.01 · market 48.5% · our estimate 51% · edge +2.5%i2.01↓ 1.99CLV +0.5 ppSun, 18 Oct 2026, 17:15afternoonLoss2–0 → 2 maalia, raja 2,5

Granada's 10-match average total goals is 3.0 and Cádiz's is 2.6; Over 2.5 has landed in a combined 11/20 matches. Attacking absences limit the increase.

Vålerenga – SK BrannEliteserienFootballUnder 3.5 goalsOver/Under 3.5 goals · CoolbetOdds 1.89 · market 51.4% · our estimate 55% · edge +4.0%i1.89↑ 1.93CLV −1.1 ppSun, 18 Oct 2026, 18:00afternoonLoss3–1 → 4 maalia, raja 3,5

Only 2/10 of Brann's recent matches exceeded 3.5 goals. Three days' recovery, an upcoming European match and midfield absences marginally support Under.

Le Havre – AuxerreLigue 1FootballOver 2.5 goalsOver/Under 2.5 goals · Coolbetnote: L. Mpasi not in the squadOdds 1.88 · market 52.6% · our estimate 56% · edge +5.3%i1.88↓ 1.79CLV +2.7 ppSun, 18 Oct 2026, 18:15afternoonWin1–3 → 4 maalia, raja 2,5

Five of Auxerre's six league matches have exceeded 2.5 goals, and both teams have significant absences in defence. Le Havre's first-choice goalkeeper Mpasi is also absent.

Cesena FC – AvellinoSerie BFootballOver 2.5 goalsOver/Under 2.5 goals · Pinnaclenote: T. Cancellotti, D. Fila, A. Iannarilli not in the squadOdds 2.07 · market 47.2% · our estimate 51% · edge +4.5%i2.07↓ 2.04CLV +0.7 ppSun, 18 Oct 2026, 18:15afternoonLoss1–1 → 2 maalia, raja 2,5

In Avellino's 10-match sample, 7/10 exceeded the line, and the visitors are without defender Cancellotti and goalkeeper Iannarilli. Cesena have Shpendi available.

Fluminense – SantosBrasileirão Série AFootballOver 2.5 goalsOver/Under 2.5 goals · LeoVegasOdds 1.81 · market 53.1% · our estimate 57% · edge +3.2%i1.81↓ 1.76CLV +1.6 ppSun, 18 Oct 2026, 22:00nightWin1–2 → 3 maalia, raja 2,5

In both teams' last 10 matches, 7 exceeded 2.5 goals. Santos's confirmed line-up is attack-minded, and Fluminense are rotating their line-up during a congested Libertadores period.

Kansas City Chiefs – Los Angeles ChargersNFLAmerican footballKansas City Chiefs −7.5 pointsHandicap −7.5 · 1xBetOdds 1.96 · market 49.4% · our estimate 54% · edge +5.8%i1.96↓ 1.95CLV +0.3 ppSun, 18 Oct 2026, 23:25nightWin22–6 → marginaali +16, linja −7,5

The Chiefs are coming off a bye week, while several starters are absent from the Chargers' offensive line. Los Angeles's average early-season margin is −9.0 points.