Tuesday 20 Oct 2026 · 28 picks · 19/28 hit · return 121.3%

Hits

19/28

of all published

Return

121.3%

flat-stake singles

Value picks

1/1

return 168.0%

Totals & spreads

9/10

return 184.5%

Likely

7/13

return 81.2%

Specials

2/4

return 81.5%

MatchSportPickOddsKick-off (Helsinki time)StatusResult
LikelyOdds 1.30–1.75 · hit more often than value picks, but at short odds one loss wipes out several wins. Edge here is usually near zero or negative – no value edge, nothing is certain.
Toby Samuel – Zizou BergsATP BrusselsTennisZizou Bergs to winMatch winner · BetfairOdds 1.38 · market 67.0% · our estimate 67% · edge -7.5%i1.38Tue, 20 Oct 2026, 19:00morningWinZizou Bergs voitti 6–3, 7–6(3).

Bergs' ranking, recent Shanghai form and home advantage support his status as favourite, but Samuel's strong 2026 season and indoor-court record prevent us from raising the estimate above the market's 67%.

IFK Norrkoping – Örebro SKSuperettanFootballIFK Norrkoping to winMatch winner (1X2) · Coolbetnote: M. Watson, E. McCue not in the squadOdds 1.70 · market 56.0% · our estimate 58% · edge -1.4%i1.70↓ 1.53CLV +6.5 ppTue, 20 Oct 2026, 20:00morningLoss2–2 (tasapeli)

Norrköping are on a 12-match unbeaten run in the Superettan and will secure the league title with a win. Örebro go into the match without suspended Max Watson and injured Erik McCue.

Guadalajara – NecaxaLiga MXFootballGuadalajara to winMatch winner (1X2) · CasumoOdds 1.41 · market 65.3% · our estimate 65% · edge -7.9%i1.41↓ 1.36CLV +2.6 ppWed, 21 Oct 2026, 03:07morningWin1–0 (Guadalajara Chivas voitti)

Guadalajara's 10-match goal profile is clearly better than Necaxa's, but a four-match winless run and several absences prevent a figure higher than the market estimate.

SaiPa – KärpätLiigaIce hockeySaiPa to win the matchMatch winner · NordicBetOdds 1.69 · market 56.9% · our estimate 57% · edge -3.8%i1.69↑ 1.71CLV −0.7 ppTue, 20 Oct 2026, 18:30afternoonWin2–1 voittomaalikilpailun jälkeen (SaiPa voitti).

SaiPa's recent defensive and special-teams play is stronger than Kärpät's, but Kärpät's better scoring balances the match-up. The estimate remains in the market's fair distribution.

KooKoo – TapparaLiigaIce hockeyTappara to win the matchMatch winner · NordicBetOdds 1.48 · market 64.9% · our estimate 65% · edge -4.0%i1.48↓ 1.45CLV +1.4 ppTue, 20 Oct 2026, 18:30afternoonLossKooKoo voitti 3–2 voittomaalikilpailun jälkeen.

Tappara's recent goal difference and special teams are clearly better than KooKoo's. Nevertheless, there is no evidence-based reason to deviate from the market's fair estimate of 64.9%.

Lukko – HIFKLiigaIce hockeyLukko to winMatch winner · NordicBetOdds 1.44 · market 66.7% · our estimate 67% · edge -4.0%i1.44↓ 1.38CLV +3.0 ppTue, 20 Oct 2026, 18:30afternoonWin3–2 voittomaalikilpailun jälkeen (Lukko voitti).

Lukko's defensive play in recent matches has been clearly more consistent than HIFK's, but the goaltending selection and HIFK's dangerous power play keep the estimate at market level.

Sabah FK – Borussia DortmundMestarien liigaFootballBorussia Dortmund to winMatch winner (1X2) · 1xBetnote: K. Karetsas, G. Konstantelias, Justin Lerma not in the squadOdds 1.33 · market 74.0% · our estimate 74% · edge -1.6%i1.33↓ 1.29CLV +2.3 ppTue, 20 Oct 2026, 19:45afternoonWin1–2 (Borussia Dortmund voitti)

Dortmund are clear favourites, but Sabah's strong recent goal difference and Dortmund's four absences provide no reason to raise the estimate above the market's 74%.

Fenerbahce – Slavia PrahaMestarien liigaFootballFenerbahce to winMatch winner (1X2) · 1xBetnote: Marco Asensio, M. Müldür, J. Oosterwolde, I. Ogbu, A. Ouanda not in the squadOdds 1.62 · market 60.7% · our estimate 61% · edge -1.7%i1.62↓ 1.47CLV +6.3 ppTue, 20 Oct 2026, 19:45afternoonLoss2–2 (tasapeli)

Fenerbahçe are favourites at home and Slavia's absence list is extensive, but key players are also missing for the hosts. The sources provide no reason to deviate from the market's 60.7%.

Porto – PSV EindhovenMestarien liigaFootballPorto to winMatch winner (1X2) · 1xBetnote: R. Pepi, A. Pléa not in the squadOdds 1.57 · market 62.7% · our estimate 64% · edge -0.3%i1.57↓ 1.51CLV +2.5 ppTue, 20 Oct 2026, 22:00nightLoss0–1 (PSV Eindhoven voitti)

Porto have five rest days to PSV's two, and PSV are playing their third match in eight days. PSV's confirmed starting line-up is missing several attacking and midfield options.

Washington Capitals – Los Angeles KingsNHLIce hockeyWashington Capitals to winMatch winner · PinnacleOdds 1.65 · market 59.1% · our estimate 62% · edge +1.5%i1.65↓ 1.64CLV +0.4 ppWed, 21 Oct 2026, 02:00nightLossLos Angeles Kings voitti 5–2.

Washington have a clear goaltending edge: Logan Thompson is confirmed, while Darcy Kuemper is only projected and has started the season poorly. The Kings' attack and special teams have also struggled.

Montréal Canadiens – San Jose SharksNHLIce hockeyMontréal Canadiens to win the matchMatch winner · Paddy PowerOdds 1.45 · market 65.9% · our estimate 66% · edge -4.4%i1.45↑ 1.47CLV −0.9 ppWed, 21 Oct 2026, 02:00nightLossSan Jose Sharks voitti Montréal Canadiensin 4–3 jatkoajalla.

Montréal have home and rest advantages with San Jose playing on consecutive days, but Dobes's poor start to the season and the Canadiens' absences prevent the estimate from being raised above the market anchor.

Dallas Stars – Boston BruinsNHLIce hockeyDallas Stars to winMatch winner · Paddy PowerOdds 1.61 · market 60.2% · our estimate 60% · edge -3.2%i1.61→ 1.61CLV 0.0 ppWed, 21 Oct 2026, 03:00nightWinDallas Stars voitti 3–2 jatkoajalla.

Oettinger gives Dallas a goaltending edge, but Boston's strong start to the season and Dallas's absences balance the match-up. The estimate remains at the market's fair 60.1%.

St Louis Blues – Winnipeg JetsNHLIce hockeySt Louis Blues to win (incl. overtime and shootout)Match winner · CoralOdds 1.70 · market 55.8% · our estimate 56% · edge -5.1%i1.70↑ 1.77CLV −2.3 ppWed, 21 Oct 2026, 03:00nightWinSt. Louis Blues voitti 2–1 varsinaisella peliajalla.

St. Louis have home advantage, but Winnipeg's better start to the season and special-teams play balance the match. There is no goaltending edge, so the estimate remains at the market anchor.

Value picksOur estimate beats the market
New York Islanders – Anaheim DucksNHLIce hockeyNew York Islanders to winMatch winner · PinnacleBlind estimate 63% · market 58.1% · edge +5.8%i1.68→ 1.68CLV 0.0 ppWed, 21 Oct 2026, 02:00nightWinNew York Islanders voitti 3–2 varsinaisella peliajalla.

Why we think the market is wrong: The Sorokin–Dostal goaltending difference, the Islanders' strong defence and Anaheim's consecutive away match favour the home side.

The Sorokin–Dostal goaltending difference, the Islanders' strong defence and Anaheim's consecutive away match favour the home side. The Islanders' attacking absences limit the estimate.

Totals & spreadsOver/under picks call the match's total goals or points, not the winner. Odds are 1.70–2.20 and the reason is always named: pace, goaltending, absences or conditions. In ice hockey overtime and the shootout count; in football only regulation time. Spread picks call the winning margin: Lakers −4.5 wins if the Lakers win by five or more.
Guadalajara – NecaxaLiga MXFootballUnder 3.5 goalsOver/Under 3.5 goals · Casumonote: L. Romo, J. Castillo, M. Tapias, O. Govea not in the squadOdds 1.70 · market 55.5% · our estimate 60% · edge +2.0%i1.70↑ 1.92CLV −6.7 ppWed, 21 Oct 2026, 03:07morningWin1–0 → 1 maalia, raja 3,5

Only six of the 20 team-specific results from recent matches went Over 3.5 goals. Guadalajara's strong average for goals conceded supports the under angle.

Tigres – LeónLiga MXFootballUnder 2.5 goalsOver/Under 2.5 goals · Casumonote: J. Brunetta not in the squadOdds 2.08 · market 45.8% · our estimate 52% · edge +8.2%i2.08↓ 2.01CLV +1.7 ppWed, 21 Oct 2026, 06:00morningWinottelun tulos 0-2

8 of Tigres' 10 matches and 6 of León's 10 matches stayed Under 2.5 goals. Tigres are also without Juan Brunetta, who has scored six goals this season, through suspension.

HPK – PelicansLiigaIce hockeyUnder 4.5 goalsOver/Under 4.5 goals · 888Odds 2.15 · market 48.7% · our estimate 53% · edge +14.0%i2.15→ 2.15CLV 0.0 ppTue, 20 Oct 2026, 18:30afternoonWin1–3 → 4 maalia, raja 4,5

The teams' total-goals averages over their last 10 matches are 4.6 and 4.2. Pelicans score only 1.8 goals per match, and neither side is playing on consecutive days.

Sport – JukuritLiigaIce hockeyUnder 4.5 goalsOver/Under 4.5 goals · 888Odds 2.15 · market 47.3% · our estimate 52% · edge +11.8%i2.15→ 2.15CLV 0.0 ppTue, 20 Oct 2026, 18:30afternoonWin0–3 → 3 maalia, raja 4,5

Sport's last 10 matches have produced only 3.9 and Jukurit's 4.8 goals per match. Both have conceded 2.1 goals per match, and neither is playing on consecutive days.

VfB Stuttgart – Atlético MadridMestarien liigaFootballUnder 3.5 goalsOver/Under 3.5 goals · 1xBetnote: Cristian Romero not in the squadOdds 1.81 · market 54.6% · our estimate 60% · edge +8.6%i1.81↓ 1.77CLV +1.3 ppTue, 20 Oct 2026, 22:00nightWin1–1 → 2 maalia, raja 3,5

In the combined 20-match sample, 13 matches finished Under 3.5 goals. In addition, Stuttgart's scorer of four UCL goals, Demirović, is confirmed to start on the bench.

Paris Saint Germain – BarcelonaMestarien liigaFootballOver 4.5 goalsOver/Under 4.5 goals · 1xBetnote: Nuno Mendes, A. Longoni, A. Christensen, J. Koundé not in the squadOdds 2.19 · market 45.0% · our estimate 49% · edge +7.3%i2.19↑ 2.23CLV −0.8 ppTue, 20 Oct 2026, 22:00nightWin4–2 → 6 maalia, raja 4,5

Barcelona have scored 4.3 goals per match in their last ten, and their defence is without Koundé, Eric García and Christensen. The high 4.5 line nevertheless keeps the estimate moderate.

Montréal Canadiens – San Jose SharksNHLIce hockeyOver 6.5 goalsOver/Under 6.5 goals · Unibet (NL)Odds 2.10 · market 49.6% · our estimate 53% · edge +11.3%i2.10↓ 1.83CLV +7.0 ppWed, 21 Oct 2026, 02:00nightWin3–3 ja 0–1 → 7 maalia, raja 6,5

Dobes's poor start to the season and Montréal's 3.8 goals conceded per match support the Over; San Jose are also playing on consecutive nights. Nedeljkovic's good form tempers the estimate.

Columbus Blue Jackets – Toronto Maple LeafsNHLIce hockeyOver 6.5 goalsOver/Under 6.5 goals · 1xBetOdds 2.20 · market 46.9% · our estimate 49% · edge +7.8%i2.20↓ 1.93CLV +6.4 ppWed, 21 Oct 2026, 02:00nightWin2–6 → 8 maalia, raja 6,5

Toronto's confirmed starter Stolarz has started poorly (.875), and the Leafs are playing on consecutive days. The third match in four days for both raises the risk of defensive mistakes.

Dallas Stars – Boston BruinsNHLIce hockeyUnder 5.5 goalsOver/Under 5.5 goals · Unibet (NL)Odds 2.07 · market 47.7% · our estimate 53% · edge +9.7%i2.07↓ 1.98CLV +2.2 ppWed, 21 Oct 2026, 03:00nightWin2–2 ja 1–0 → 5 maalia, raja 5,5

Oettinger and Swayman are confirmed as starters, and both have started the season excellently. Dallas's 1.6 and Boston's 2.1 goals conceded per match support the Under.

Seattle Kraken – Detroit Red WingsNHLIce hockeyUnder 6.5 goalsOver/Under 6.5 goals · 1xBetOdds 1.89 · market 54.6% · our estimate 57% · edge +7.7%i1.89↓ 1.88CLV +0.3 ppWed, 21 Oct 2026, 04:40nightLoss3–3 vmk → 7 maalia, raja 6,5

The confirmed starters Tarasov (.965) and Grubauer (.909) are clearly stronger than the preliminary goaltending picture in the input, and neither team is playing on consecutive days.

SpecialsSpecials call an individual player's statistic: points, goals, assists, shots, power-play points or saves in the NHL; points, goals, assists or shots in Liiga; and points, rebounds, assists or threes in the NBA. A pick is published only with a confirmed line-up and voided if the player does not play. Odds are 1.60–2.20 and the reason is always named.
Roni HirvonenSaiPa – Kärpät · LiigaIce hockeyRoni Hirvonen Over 0.5 pointsPoints Over/Under 0.5 · UnibetOdds 1.66 · market 55.5% · our estimate 67% · edge +11.2%i1.66↓ 1.64CLV +0.7 ppTue, 20 Oct 2026, 18:30afternoonLoss0 pistettä, raja 0,5

Last 15: 10/15 over 0.5 · TOI 18:24

Hirvonen has recorded a point in 8/10 recent matches and plays on Kärpät's first line. SaiPa's 1.9 goals conceded per match and Grigals' 91.38% lower the estimate to 67%.

Daniel MäkiahoLukko – HIFK · LiigaIce hockeyDaniel Mäkiaho Over 0.5 pointsPoints Over/Under 0.5 · UnibetOdds 1.62 · market 56.7% · our estimate 67% · edge +8.5%i1.62→ 1.62CLV 0.0 ppTue, 20 Oct 2026, 18:30afternoonWin1 pistettä, raja 0,5

Last 20: 13/20 over 0.5 · TOI 16:43

Mäkiaho has recorded a point in 9/10 recent matches and plays on HIFK's first line. Lukko's strong defence, conceding only 1.7 goals per match in the last ten, lowers the estimate.

Alex NewhookMontréal Canadiens – San Jose Sharks · NHLIce hockeyAlex Newhook Under 0.5 pointsPoints Over/Under 0.5 · UnibetOdds 1.64 · market 56.8% · our estimate 63% · edge +3.3%i1.64↑ 1.65CLV −0.4 ppWed, 21 Oct 2026, 02:00nightWin0 pistettä, raja 0,5 · A. Newhook pisteet: 0 (boxscore 2026020141)

Last 20: 14/20 under 0.5 · TOI 15:41

Newhook has gone pointless in 6/10 and 14/20 recent matches. San Jose's weak defence and consecutive matchday nevertheless lower the Under estimate from 67% to 63%.

Charlie McAvoyDallas Stars – Boston Bruins · NHLIce hockeyCharlie McAvoy Over 0.5 pointsPoints Over/Under 0.5 · PinnacleOdds 2.05 · market 46.1% · our estimate 55% · edge +12.8%i2.05→ 2.05CLV 0.0 ppWed, 21 Oct 2026, 03:00nightLossei pisteitä McAvoylla

Last 20: 13/20 over 0.5 · TOI 24:58

McAvoy plays on the first defensive pairing and PP1, but Dallas's 1.6 goals conceded per match and confirmed Jake Oettinger (.952) lower the Over estimate to 55%.