Tips 2026-10-22

Thursday evening's offering is built around European club football matches, with intriguing contests taking place in both the Europa League and the Conference League. Overnight, attention turns to NHL rinks, where several games are scheduled across North America.

Probables

Probables are favourites whose chances of winning we consider at least as likely as the market does. They land more often than value bets, but short odds mean that one loss wipes out several wins. The edge in this band is generally around zero or negative, because the odds include the bookmaker's margin – the long-term return is at market level, not above it.

Dallas Stars – Winnipeg Jets: Dallas Stars to win @ 1.52

Statistics. Dallas have started the season with a record of 5–3–1 and Winnipeg 4–3–2; the Stars have conceded 15 goals in nine games and the Jets 26. Oettinger's save percentage is 94.5 and his goals-against average 1.13, while Skinner's figures are 91.0 and 2.65. Situation. Jake Oettinger has been confirmed as Dallas's starter. Stuart Skinner is projected to start for Winnipeg and was in the starter's net at morning skate, but he had not yet been confirmed; neither team is playing on consecutive days. Estimate. Dallas Stars: 64.2% · Winnipeg Jets: 35.8% Why we are betting. Oettinger's early-season goaltending edge supports Dallas's clear status as favourites, but it provides no source-based reason to raise the estimate above the market's fair 64.2%.

Odds 1.52 · market 64.2% · our estimate 64% · edge -2.4%

Olympiakos Piraeus – Sparta Prague: Olympiakos Piraeus to win @ 1.52

Statistics. Olympiakos have scored 1.6 and conceded 0.5 goals per game over their last 10 matches; Over 2.5 goals landed in 3/10. Sparta's corresponding figures are 2.3 scored and 1.0 conceded, with Over 2.5 goals landing in 6/10. Situation. In the confirmed starting line-ups, Olympiakos line up in a 4-2-3-1 formation and Sparta in a 4-3-3 formation. A. González starts up front for Olympiakos with El Kaabi absent; both sides have had four rest days since their previous match. Estimate. 1: 63.7% · X: 21.5% · 2: 14.8% Why we are betting. Olympiakos are clear home favourites, but the confirmed line-up and El Kaabi's absence provide no source-based reason to deviate from the market's fair probability.

Odds 1.52 · market 63.7% · our estimate 64% · edge -3.2%

NK Celje – Salzburg: Salzburg to win @ 1.57

Statistics. Celje's goal averages over their last 10 matches are 0.6 scored and 1.3 conceded, compared with 2.1 and 0.9 for Salzburg. Over 2.5 goals has landed in 7/10 Salzburg matches and 3/10 Celje matches; both last played four days ago. Situation. In the confirmed starting line-ups, Celje start with Leban, Sešlar and Kramer among others, while Salzburg start with Zawieschitzky, Lindstrøm, Kitano, Baidoo and Tabakovic. Pisek is absent for Celje; Salzburg are without six listed players and Konaté was doubtful and is not in the squad, but neither side gains a fatigue advantage. Estimate. NK Celje: 18.1% · Draw: 21.2% · Salzburg: 60.7% Why we are betting. Salzburg are clear favourites based on the statistics and confirmed starting line-up, but we do not deviate from the market's fair estimate: according to our model, there is no edge at odds of 1.57.

Odds 1.57 · market 60.7% · our estimate 61% · edge -4.7%

Calgary Flames – Minnesota Wild: Minnesota Wild to win @ 1.50

Statistics. Minnesota have started the season with a record of 6–2–2 and a goal tally of 31–25, while Calgary are 2–6–0 with a 17–37 goal tally. Wallstedt's save percentage is 91.5 and that of Calgary's confirmed starter Devin Cooley is 86.8. Situation. Devin Cooley has been confirmed as Calgary's starter. Jesper Wallstedt is Minnesota's projected starter, not confirmed, and another preview assessed Calvin Pickard as an alternative; neither side is playing on consecutive days, but Calgary have two more rest days. Estimate. Calgary Flames: 36.6% · Minnesota Wild: 63.4% Why we are betting. Minnesota's start to the season and likely goaltending edge make them clear favourites, but Minnesota's unconfirmed starter and Calgary's rest advantage provide no source-based reason to deviate from the market's fair estimate.

Odds 1.50 · market 63.4% · our estimate 63% · edge -4.9%

Vancouver Canucks – Detroit Red Wings: Detroit Red Wings to win @ 1.62

Statistics. Detroit's record is 3–3–3 and Vancouver's 2–8–1; the Canucks are on an eight-game losing streak. Vancouver have averaged only 20.7 shots per game. Situation. John Gibson and Kevin Lankinen are Daily Faceoff's projected starters, but neither has been confirmed; another source considers Leevi Meriläinen Vancouver's likely starter. Neither team is playing on consecutive days. Estimate. Vancouver Canucks: 41.3% · Detroit Red Wings: 58.7% Why we are betting. The goaltending information is conflicting, so we do not deviate from the market's fair distribution. Detroit are the more likely winners, but the odds do not represent a source-based edge.

Odds 1.62 · market 58.7% · our estimate 59% · edge -4.9%

Over/Under and Handicap

Over/Under bets are on the total number of goals or points in a match, not the winner. Odds are 1.70–2.20 and the rationale is always specified: game pace, goaltenders, absences or conditions. In ice hockey, overtime and the shootout are included, while in football only regulation time counts. Handicap bets are on the winning margin: Lakers −4.5 wins if the Lakers win by at least five.

Ottawa Senators – San Jose Sharks: Over 6.5 goals @ 2.02

Statistics. Ottawa have scored 2.9 and conceded 2.4 goals per game in 10 games, while San Jose have scored 2.7 and conceded 3.5. San Jose's power play has operated at 24.2%, while Ottawa's figure is 13.0%. Situation. Yaroslav Askarov has been confirmed in goal for San Jose; Samuel Ersson is Ottawa's projected starter, not yet confirmed. Askarov's save percentage is 86.5 and Ersson's 83.1, while Ottawa are also playing the second game of a back-to-back. Estimate. Over: 52% · Under: 48% Why we are betting. The early-season save figures of both starter options are weak, and Ottawa have a fatigue disadvantage. These factors lift the Over estimate marginally above the market. Deviation from the market: A weak early-season goaltending pairing and Ottawa's back-to-back raise the probability of Over 6.5 goals above the market estimate.

Odds 2.02 · market 48.6% · our estimate 52% · edge +5.0%

TSG Hoffenheim – Lyon: Under 3.5 goals @ 1.77

Statistics. Hoffenheim's total-goals average over their last 10 matches is 4.0, and Over 3.5 goals landed in 7/10. Lyon's total-goals average is 2.9, and the same line was exceeded in only 3/10. Situation. The starting line-ups are confirmed: Lyon start with the Nakamura–Himbert–Boudache trio in attack, while Openda and Šulc are absent from the line-up and Tolisso and Nuamah are on the bench. This is the third match in eight days for both sides, although they have had four days since their previous game. Estimate. Over: 41% · Under: 59% Why we are betting. Lyon's rotated attack and the team's clearly lower recent total-goals profile than Hoffenheim's push the estimate Under the market. Deviation from the market: The estimate leans Under the market because Lyon's confirmed attacking trio is rotated and the side lack key attacking options in a congested schedule.

Odds 1.77 · market 55.2% · our estimate 59% · edge +4.4%

New York Islanders – Los Angeles Kings: Under 5.5 goals @ 2.00

Statistics. The Islanders have scored 3.0 and conceded 2.2 goals per game in nine games; the Kings' figures over seven games are 2.4 and 3.9. The Islanders' penalty kill is 87.5%, while the Kings' corresponding figure is 64.0%; the projected goaltenders' save percentages are 93.4% for Sorokin and 86.9% for Kuemper. Situation. Daily Faceoff project Kuemper and Sorokin as starters, but neither had yet been confirmed. Both sides are without key forwards, including the Islanders' Mathew Barzal and the Kings' Kevin Fiala, and neither is playing on consecutive days. Estimate. Over: 48% · Under: 52% Why we are betting. The Islanders' low number of goals conceded and Sorokin's strong start to the season support the Under line, while attacking absences reinforce the narrow difference to the market. However, the Kings' weak penalty kill and Kuemper's early season keep the edge modest. Deviation from the market: The Islanders' strong defensive level and Sorokin's 93.4% save percentage, along with attacking absences for both teams, shift the estimate slightly towards Under.

Odds 2.00 · market 50.5% · our estimate 52% · edge +4.0%

Ajax – Atalanta BC: Over 3.5 goals @ 2.12

Statistics. Ajax's averages over their last 10 matches are 3.3 goals scored and 1.7 conceded, with Over 2.5 goals landing 9/10 times. Atalanta's corresponding figures are 1.4 and 1.2, with Over 2.5 landing 6/10 times. Situation. Both are playing their third match in eight days, but have had four rest days since their previous game. The confirmed starting line-ups include Marcos Leonardo, Brandt, Gloukh, Scamacca and De Ketelaere among others; Blind and Berghuis are absent for Ajax, and Atalanta's defence has been altered due to absences. Estimate. Over: 49% · Under: 51% Why we are betting. Ajax's matches have been clearly higher scoring than the market's baseline anchor, and the confirmed line-ups retain attacking threat for both sides while there is vulnerability in the defensive lines. Deviation from the market: The estimate leans more towards Over than the market due to Ajax's extremely high-scoring 10-match spell, as well as the attacking strength of the confirmed line-ups and vulnerability in the defensive lines.

Odds 2.12 · market 46.3% · our estimate 49% · edge +3.9%

Pittsburgh Penguins – Florida Panthers: Over 6.5 goals @ 1.83

Statistics. Pittsburgh's goal tally over their last 10 games is 33–38, meaning their games have produced 7.1 goals per game. Florida's corresponding tally is 31–30; Pittsburgh's power play operates at 23.3% and Florida's at 20.8%. Situation. Arturs Silovs has been confirmed in goal for Pittsburgh with an 86.6% save percentage. Cooper Black is projected for Florida, but the selection has not been confirmed; the Panthers are also playing on consecutive days, while Pittsburgh have had two days' rest. Estimate. Over: 56% · Under: 44% Why we are betting. Pittsburgh's poor defensive record and Silovs's early-season figures combine with Florida's back-to-back fatigue. On this information, Over is slightly more likely than the market suggests. Deviation from the market: Pittsburgh's high-scoring games, Silovs's weak start to the season and Florida playing on consecutive days lift the Over probability slightly above the market estimate.

Odds 1.83 · market 53.1% · our estimate 56% · edge +2.5%

Specials

Special bets are on an individual player's statistic: in the NHL, points, goals, assists, shots, power-play points or saves; in Liiga, points, goals, assists or shots; in the NBA, points, rebounds, assists or three-pointers; and in football, shots and shots on target. Ice hockey and basketball bets are published with a confirmed line-up; a football bet can be published before the line-up is announced and is voided under the bookmaker's rule if the player does not start. Odds are 1.60–2.20 and the rationale is always specified.

New York Islanders – Los Angeles Kings: Simon Holmstrom Under 1.5 shots @ 1.71

Statistics. Holmstrom has gone Under 1.5 shots in 7/10 recent games and 13/20 games. His shots average is 1.4, median 1.0 and shots/60 4.8; his average ice time over the last five games has been 16:45. Situation. Holmstrom is in the projected first line with Bo Horvat and Kyle Palmieri and, based on the information from the last match, on PP1; the line-up is projected, not confirmed. Darcy Kuemper is the Kings' likely starter, and both teams enter the match after one day off. Estimate. Over: 33% · Under: 67% Why we are betting. No source-based change in role, opponent or game pace was found today that would justify deviating from the empirical 67% Under probability. Deviation from the market: No source-based change differing from the empirical sample was found today, so the estimate follows the 67% Under probability.

Odds 1.71 · market 54.6% · our estimate 67% · edge +14.6%

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