Tips 2026-10-22

Thursday's schedule is highlighted by European club competitions, with Europa League and Conference League matches in football across two evening kick-off slots. The programme features international encounters between clubs from different countries, while EuroLeague basketball offers its own intriguing evening fixture.

Likely winners

Likely winners are favourites whose chances of winning we consider at least as likely as the market does. They land more often than value selections, but short odds mean that one loss wipes out several wins. The edge in this band is usually around zero or negative, because the odds include the bookmaker's margin – the long-term return is at market level, not above it.

FC Ararat-Armenia – AZ Alkmaar: AZ Alkmaar to win @ 1.49

Statistics. Ararat-Armenia have scored 1.7 and conceded 1.1 goals per match over their last 10 matches; AZ's corresponding figures are 2.0 and 1.2. In the first two Europa League rounds, Ararat-Armenia lost 1–4 and 1–3, while AZ lost 0–1 and won 2–1; xG and xPTS figures are unavailable. Situation. Both are playing their third match in eight days. Ayongo is out and Banjaqui is doubtful for Ararat-Armenia; AZ have four players out, and the club confirmed that Clasie remained in Alkmaar as a precaution. AZ travelled to Yerevan with a 24-man squad. Estimate. FC Ararat-Armenia 13.9% · Draw 21.1% · AZ Alkmaar 65.1% Why we play it. AZ are clear favourites, but no source-based edge differing from the market was found. Therefore, the estimate is kept exactly at the market's fair 65.1%.

Odds 1.49 · market 65.1% · our estimate 65% · edge -3.1%

Pafos FC – Riga FC: Pafos FC to win @ 1.62

Statistics. Pafos' goal averages over their last ten matches are 1.2 scored and 0.9 conceded, with Over 2.5 goals landing in 4/10 matches. Riga's corresponding figures are 1.7 and 1.1 goals, with Over 2.5 goals in 5/10 matches; xG and xPTS figures are unavailable. Situation. This is the third match in eight days for both, so the match schedule gives neither a clear edge. The official match content of both clubs from the previous 48 hours was checked; no named absences were reported, but confirmed starting line-ups were not yet available in the morning. Estimate. Pafos FC: 59.6% · Draw: 23.0% · Riga FC: 17.4% Why we play it. No concrete source-based reason was found to depart from the market's fair estimate, so Pafos' win probability is kept at 59.6%.

Odds 1.62 · market 59.6% · our estimate 60% · edge -3.4%

AGF Aarhus – KF Egnatia: AGF Aarhus to win @ 1.53

Statistics. In AGF's ten-match sample, the goal averages are 1.7 scored and 1.4 conceded; Egnatia's corresponding figures are 1.8 and 0.8. Over 2.5 goals has landed in 6/10 matches for both, and each comes into the game after four rest days. Situation. Gift Links, Mouhammade Camara and Tómas Óli Kristjánsson are out for AGF, and a recent preview also lists Kevin Yakob as absent; no absences were reported for Egnatia. Both are playing their third match in eight days, and AGF's European home match will be played at their temporary home ground in Randers. Estimate. AGF Aarhus: 61.9% · Draw: 22.3% · KF Egnatia: 15.8% Why we play it. The estimate remains exactly in the market's fair distribution. AGF's public absences and even match workload provide no source-based reason not priced in by the market to increase the probability of a Home win.

Odds 1.53 · market 61.9% · our estimate 62% · edge -5.3%

Maccabi Tel Aviv – Real Madrid: Real Madrid to win @ 1.54

Statistics. In a six-match EuroLeague sample, Maccabi have scored 84.8 and conceded 90.0 points per game, while Real Madrid's corresponding figures are 92.3 and 88.5. Real have won their last three EuroLeague matches and six matches in a row in all competitions; Maccabi have won two of their last three. Situation. Both last played on Sunday, so there is no back-to-back workload. Real regain Luwawu-Cabarrot and Okeke, who rested at the weekend, but Deck and Garuba are out; Lundberg is missing for Maccabi. The match will be played at Maccabi's temporary home court in Belgrade. Estimate. Maccabi Tel Aviv: 38.6% · Real Madrid: 61.4% Why we play it. Real are clearly the more likely winners based on their attacking numbers and form in recent weeks. Our estimate matches the market's fair probability, so this is a favourite in the likely-winners band rather than an overpriced selection.

Odds 1.54 · market 61.4% · our estimate 61% · edge -5.4%

Over/Under and Handicap

Over/Under selections concern the total number of goals or points in a match, not the winner. Odds are 1.70–2.20 and the rationale is always specified: match schedule, goalkeepers, absences or conditions. In ice hockey, incl. overtime and shootout are included; in football, only regular time counts. Handicap selections concern the winning margin: Lakers −4.5 wins if Lakers win by at least five.

FK Jablonec – Brighton and Hove Albion: Over 3.5 goals @ 2.13

Statistics. Jablonec's goal averages over their last 10 matches are 1.2 scored and 1.4 conceded, with Over 2.5 goals landing in 4/10. Brighton's figures are 3.4 scored and 0.7 conceded, with Over 2.5 landing in 8/10; xG unavailable. Situation. Both are playing their third match in eight days, but have had four rest days. Jablonec have two long-term absences and one doubtful player; Brighton are missing several attacking players and are expected to rotate their line-up. Estimate. Over: 50% · Under: 50% Why we play it. Brighton's 3.4-goal attacking average and high goal totals in 8/10 matches push the estimate above the market. Jablonec's two most recent matches also ended 3–2. Difference from the market: Brighton's exceptionally high scoring rate and Jablonec's two consecutive five-goal matches raise the Over 3.5 goals estimate above the market's fair 45.4%.

Odds 2.13 · market 45.4% · our estimate 50% · edge +6.5%

Bournemouth – AC Milan: Over 2.5 goals @ 1.75

Statistics. Bournemouth's goal record over their last 10 matches is 18–14 and Over 2.5 goals has landed 7/10 times. Milan's record is 22–11 and the over has landed 6/10 times. Situation. Both are playing their third match in eight days, although there have been four rest days since the previous match. Milan are without Gabbia and Terracciano in defence and Chukwueze and Saelemaekers in attack; Kroupi is out for Bournemouth and Scott is doubtful. Estimate. Over: 60% · Under: 40% Why we play it. Both sides' total-goal averages in recent matches exceed three, and 13 of the teams' combined last 20 matches have gone over the line. Milan's defensive absences support the over. Difference from the market: The estimate leans more towards the over than the market because goal totals in the teams' recent matches have been high and Milan have defensive absences.

Odds 1.75 · market 56.3% · our estimate 60% · edge +5.0%

Inter Club d'Escaldes – Universitatea Craiova: Under 2.5 goals @ 1.96

Statistics. Inter have scored 2.0 and conceded 0.9 goals per game in a nine-match sample; Over 2.5 landed in 5/9. Craiova's figures from ten matches are 2.1 scored and just 0.4 conceded, with six out of ten matches staying under the line. Situation. Based on the predicted line-ups, the key core of both teams is available; Inter have no reported absences, and Craiova's mentioned injured player is reserve goalkeeper Pavlo Isenko. This is the third match in eight days for both, and Craiova have their next league match in just two days. Estimate. Over: 47% · Under: 53% Why we play it. Craiova's very low average of 0.4 goals conceded and 6/10 Under 2.5 record push the estimate slightly more towards a low-scoring match than the market. Difference from the market: The estimate leans Under compared with the market because Craiova's defence have conceded only 0.4 goals per game and 6/10 of their recent matches have stayed Under 2.5 goals.

Odds 1.96 · market 49.6% · our estimate 53% · edge +3.9%

SK Sturm Graz – Marseille: Over 2.5 goals @ 1.73

Statistics. Sturm's 10-match goal-record averages are 1.9 scored and 1.4 conceded, with Over 2.5 goals landing 7/10 times. Marseille's figures are 1.6 scored and 1.7 conceded, with Over 2.5 landing 6/10 overall, so both sides' matches have a total-goal average of 3.3. Situation. Sturm are missing several attacking options, while defender Cornelius is out for Marseille and midfielder Højbjerg is doubtful. Both have four rest days, but this is the third match in eight days; UEFA confirm the kick-off time as 19.45 (Helsinki time). Estimate. Over: 59% · Under: 41% Why we play it. Recent goal totals and Marseille's defensive personnel concerns make the over option slightly more likely than the market estimate, although Sturm's attacking absences limit the gap. Difference from the market: The estimate leans more towards the over than the market because goal totals in both teams' recent matches have been high and Marseille's defensive and midfield absences increase the risk of an open match.

Odds 1.73 · market 56.2% · our estimate 59% · edge +2.1%

Specials

Specials concern an individual player's statistic: in the NHL, points, goals, assists, shots, power-play points or saves; in Liiga, points, goals, assists or shots; and in the NBA, points, rebounds, assists or three-pointers. The selection is published only with a confirmed line-up and is void if the player does not play. Odds are 1.60–2.20 and the rationale is always specified.

Besiktas JK – Crystal Palace: Yéremy Pino Over 0.5 shots on target @ 2.00

Statistics. Pino has had at least one shot on target in 5/9 recent matches (56%), at an average of 0.7. His playing time has increased to an average of 78:12 across the last five, and Beşiktaş have allowed opponents 3.8 shots on target per match in a ten-match sample. Situation. The starting line-up had not yet been announced, but Pino has started the last five and the server will check the starting line-up before the match; if he does not start, the bet is void. Neither team has consecutive matchdays, and Palace's reported absences contain no direct negative change to Pino's attacking role. Estimate. Over: 56% · Under: 44% Why we play it. The estimate is kept at the official nine-match empirical 56%: increased playing time supports the number of attempts, but the 3.0 shots on target allowed by Beşiktaş at home does not justify a further increase. Difference from the market: The empirical 56% over estimate is not changed, as there is no sufficiently strong source-based reason for an adjustment between the increased recent playing time and the shot volume Beşiktaş allow at home.

Odds 2.00 · market 50.0% · our estimate 56% · edge +12.0%

Gamble responsibly and only with money you can afford to lose. Tips are opinions, not promises of profit.