Tips 2026-10-29

The overnight schedule turns attention to North America, where the NHL offers a broad slate of contests from across the league. In addition, there is one early-night game in the NFL, so both ice hockey and American football are available into the late evening and early morning hours.

Likely winners

Likely winners are favourites whose chances of winning we consider at least as high as the market does. They land more often than value bets, but short odds mean that one loss wipes out several wins. The edge in this band is generally around zero or negative, because the odds include the bookmaker's margin – long-term returns are at market level, not above it.

Dallas Stars – Montréal Canadiens: Dallas Stars to win @ 1.61

Stats. Montréal have started the season with a 7–3–2 record and Dallas are 7–4–1; the Canadiens have won three in a row, while the Stars most recently lost 1–5 to New Jersey. Jake Oettinger, projected to start for Dallas, has a save percentage of .929 and a goals-against average of 1.43, while Montréal's confirmed starter Jakub Dobes has figures of .847 and 4.47. Situation. Dobes is confirmed as Montréal's starter; Oettinger is projected, not confirmed, for Dallas. Montréal are without Nick Suzuki, Ivan Demidov and Samuel Montembeault, while Dallas are missing, among others, Matt Duchene and Esa Lindell. Neither are playing on consecutive days, but Montréal conclude a four-game road trip. Estimate. Dallas Stars: 64% · Montréal Canadiens: 36% Why we bet. The deviation from the market is based on the line-up: Montréal are confirmed to be switching from the in-form Fowler to the clearly weaker-starting Dobes, and captain Suzuki is absent. Dallas's Oettinger is, however, only projected to start. Deviation from the market: The line-up lifts Dallas's estimate: Montréal are confirmed to be switching from the in-form Fowler to the weaker-starting Dobes, and captain Nick Suzuki is absent.

Odds 1.61 · market 60.7% · our estimate 64% · edge +3.0%

San Jose Sharks – Vancouver Canucks: San Jose Sharks to win @ 1.61

Stats. San Jose have started the season 6–6–1 and Vancouver 3–10–1. The Sharks' goals figures are 2.85–3.46 per game and the Canucks' 3.1–4.6; San Jose also have an edge in both power-play and penalty-kill percentages. Situation. Yaroslav Askarov is confirmed as the Sharks' starter. Leevi Meriläinen is projected for the Canucks based on morning skate, not confirmed; neither team is playing on consecutive days. Estimate. San Jose Sharks: 60.6% · Vancouver Canucks: 39.4% Why we bet. San Jose are justified favourites due to their better overall start to the season and clear special-teams edge, but the goaltending situation provides no source-based reason to deviate from the market's fair estimate.

Odds 1.61 · market 60.6% · our estimate 61% · edge -2.4%

Tampa Bay Lightning – Winnipeg Jets: Tampa Bay Lightning to win @ 1.48

Stats. Tampa Bay are 7–3–1 and 5–0–0 at home, while Winnipeg are 4–5–3. The projected starters Stuart Skinner and Andrei Vasilevskiy have save percentages of 91.1 and 88.4 respectively; both have played eight games. Situation. In NHL.com's game-day preview, Skinner and Vasilevskiy are projected starters, not yet confirmed. Winnipeg are without, among others, Josh Morrissey, while Tampa Bay are missing Yanni Gourde and Zemgus Girgensons; the Lightning have rested for four days and the Jets for one, and neither are playing on consecutive days. Estimate. Tampa Bay Lightning: 65.7% · Winnipeg Jets: 34.3% Why we bet. We do not deviate from the market's fair estimate: Tampa Bay's home advantage, rest advantage and Winnipeg's absences are balanced by Skinner's clearly better early-season save percentage.

Odds 1.48 · market 65.7% · our estimate 66% · edge -2.8%

Green Bay Packers – Carolina Panthers: Green Bay Packers to win @ 1.53

Stats. Green Bay have scored 20.6 and conceded 20.7 points per game in seven games; Carolina's corresponding figures over six games are 26.5 and 27.7. In the NFL game centre, the Packers' turnover differential is +5 and the Panthers' −1, with defensive interceptions 9–3 to Green Bay. Situation. Starting QBs Jordan Love and Bryce Young are available according to the official injury report. Both have a short week, and there are absences on the offensive lines: Carolina are missing two guards, while Green Bay are without centre Sean Rhyan and guard Travis Glover. Estimate. Green Bay Packers: 63.2% · Carolina Panthers: 36.8% Why we bet. Green Bay are justified home favourites, but no concrete source-based reason was found to deviate from the market's fair estimate of 63.2%.

Odds 1.53 · market 63.2% · our estimate 63% · edge -3.3%

Minnesota Wild – New York Islanders: Minnesota Wild to win @ 1.53

Stats. After 14 games, Minnesota are 9–3–2, with a 44–31 goal difference and a three-game winning streak; their xG share is 59.5% (xGF 4.08 and xGA 2.78 per game). The Islanders are 6–4–2, and the teams have conceded the same number of goals (31), but Minnesota have played two more games. Situation. Ilya Sorokin is confirmed as the Islanders' starter (.919), while Jesper Wallstedt (.922) is projected, not confirmed. Neither are playing on consecutive days; Minnesota are at home, but are without Brock Faber, while the Islanders are missing, among others, Mathew Barzal and Alexander Romanov. Estimate. Minnesota Wild: 62% · New York Islanders: 38% Why we bet. Minnesota are justified favourites thanks to home advantage and strong shot quality, but Sorokin's confirmed start and the teams' defensive figures provide no source-based reason to lift the estimate above the market's fair 62%.

Odds 1.53 · market 62.0% · our estimate 62% · edge -5.1%

Value bets

For value bets, our estimate exceeds the market, meaning we believe the odds are too high. They land less often than favourites, and results fluctuate greatly in the short term – the benefit only becomes visible over dozens of bets if our estimates are correct.

Nashville Predators – Washington Capitals: Nashville Predators to win @ 1.98

Stats. Washington have started the season 7–4–0 and Nashville 4–3–5. Saros has a 3–2–4 record and a save percentage of 90.7; Nashville's power play is 31.7% and penalty kill 87.5%. Situation. Juuse Saros is confirmed as Nashville's starter. Charlie Lindgren is NHL.com's projected Washington starter, but is not yet confirmed; the Capitals are playing a travel back-to-back, while Nashville have rested since Tuesday. Estimate. Nashville Predators: 57% · Washington Capitals: 43% Why we bet. Nashville are boosted by Saros's confirmed start against Lindgren's projected start, as well as Washington's travel back-to-back. Home advantage and the Preds' strong special teams support the estimate.

Odds 1.98 · market 49.4% · our estimate 57% · edge +12.9%

Pittsburgh Penguins – Utah Mammoth: Pittsburgh Penguins to win @ 2.17

Stats. Utah have started the season 8–5–0 and Pittsburgh 5–6–1. The Penguins are 4–1–0 at home and have conceded 11 goals in five home games, or 2.20 per game; Silovs's season save percentage is 89.0. Utah won the teams' first meeting 5–4, with shots 29–19. Situation. Arturs Silovs is confirmed as Pittsburgh's starter, while Karel Vejmelka is projected but not yet confirmed. Pittsburgh get Malkin, Kindel and Chinakhov back, but Rust is absent; neither team is playing on consecutive days, and Pittsburgh have four days between games compared with Utah's one. Estimate. Pittsburgh Penguins: 52% · Utah Mammoth: 48% Why we bet. Pittsburgh's rest advantage, strong 4–1–0 start at home and the return of three forwards make the home team slight favourites in my estimate. Deviation from the market: Pittsburgh's longer rest, strong early-season home play and the returns of Malkin, Kindel and Chinakhov make the home team slight favourites.

Odds 2.17 · market 45.1% · our estimate 52% · edge +12.8%

Over/Under and Handicap

Over/Under bets predict the game's total goals or points, not the winner. Odds are 1.70–2.20 and the rationale is always specified: game pace, goaltenders, absences or conditions. In ice hockey, overtime and the shootout count; in football, only regular time counts. Handicap bets predict the winning margin: Lakers −4.5 wins if the Lakers win by at least five.

Nashville Predators – Washington Capitals: Over 6.5 goals @ 1.98

Stats. Nashville's last 10 games have produced an average of 6.6 goals: 3.1 scored and 3.5 conceded. Washington's corresponding average is also 6.6 (3.4–3.2); Nashville PP 31.7% / PK 87.5% and Washington PP 19.4% / PK 80.6%. Situation. Juuse Saros is confirmed as Nashville's starter, and Charlie Lindgren is projected but not yet confirmed in goal for Washington. The Capitals are playing on consecutive days, and their defence is without Rasmus Sandin and Vincent Desharnais; William Trudeau is absent for Nashville. Estimate. Over: 53% · Under: 47% Why we bet. Washington's b2b fatigue, projected backup goaltender and two defensive absences lift the estimate for a high-scoring game above the market. Deviation from the market: The Over estimate rises above the market due to Washington's consecutive game day, projected backup goaltender and defensive absences.

Odds 1.98 · market 49.1% · our estimate 53% · edge +4.9%

Minnesota Wild – New York Islanders: Under 5.5 goals @ 2.06

Stats. Minnesota have scored 3.3 and conceded 2.3 goals per game over their last 10 games; the Islanders' corresponding figures are 2.9 and 3.0. The Wild allow only 25.1 shots per game, and the Islanders' power play has been limited to 15.8%. Situation. Ilya Sorokin is confirmed as the Islanders' starter (91.9%), while Jesper Wallstedt (92.2%) is projected but still unconfirmed. Neither team is playing on consecutive days; Minnesota are without defenceman Brock Faber. Estimate. Over: 50% · Under: 50% Why we bet. The Wild's low number of goals conceded and shots allowed, along with both goaltenders' strong season figures, lift the Under estimate slightly above the market. Deviation from the market: The estimate leans more towards Under than the market due to Minnesota-driven defensive and goaltending advantages: the Wild allow few shots, and Sorokin and Wallstedt have saved above 91.9%.

Odds 2.06 · market 47.2% · our estimate 50% · edge +3.0%

Los Angeles Kings – Ottawa Senators: Over 5.5 goals @ 1.80

Stats. The Kings' total-goals average over their last 10 games is 5.3 and the Senators' is 5.9. The Kings' penalty kill has been only 63.6%; the Senators' PP is 12.7%, but the team have scored 2.9 goals per game. Situation. The starters are confirmed: Jonas Johansson (.891) and Darcy Kuemper (.888). Ullmark is absent, while Doughty, Perry and Chabot return; neither team is on a back-to-back, but the Kings play their third game in four days. Estimate. Over: 57% · Under: 43% Why we bet. Johansson replacing Ullmark and both starters' season form below 90% lift the probability of six goals. The Kings' demanding recent schedule slightly supports the same direction. Deviation from the market: The estimate leans more towards Over than the market because the confirmed starters Johansson (.891) and Kuemper (.888) are below a 90 save percentage and the Kings have their third game in four days.

Odds 1.80 · market 53.5% · our estimate 57% · edge +2.6%

Specials

Special bets predict an individual player's statistic: in the NHL, points, goals, assists, shots, power-play points or saves; in Liiga, points, goals, assists or shots; in the NBA, points, rebounds, assists or threes; and in football, shots and shots on target. Ice hockey and basketball bets are published with a confirmed line-up; a football bet may be published before the line-up announcement and is voided according to the bookmaker's rule if the player does not start. Odds are 1.60–2.20 and the rationale is always specified.

Pittsburgh Penguins – Utah Mammoth: MacKenzie Weegar Over 1.5 shots @ 1.83

Stats. Weegar has gone over the line in 7/10 recent games and 11/20 games. His average is 1.8 shots, median 2.0 and shots/60 figure 5.2; his ice time over the last five games has risen to 23:20. Situation. Weegar is in NHL.com's projected line-up on Utah's first defensive pairing, and Daily Faceoff lists him on PP2. Pittsburgh's starting goaltender Arturs Silovs is confirmed, and Utah are not playing on consecutive days. Estimate. Over: 60% · Under: 40% Why we bet. The blind estimate remains at the empirical level of 60%: a stable first-pairing role and increased ice time support the Over, but Pittsburgh's 27.5 shots allowed per game do not justify an additional lift. Deviation from the market: The estimate remains at the empirical 60% because Weegar's first-pairing and PP2 role tonight, along with Pittsburgh's average shot profile, do not indicate a material change compared with the sample.

Odds 1.83 · market 51.3% · our estimate 60% · edge +9.8%

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