Tips 2026-10-16

There is plenty to follow in the evening and overnight schedule, from football's La Liga to NHL ice and top American college football match-ups. There are both late-evening European contests and North American overnight games, with the match-ups offering interesting points of comparison across different leagues.

Likely

Likely picks are favourites whose victory we consider at least as likely as the market does. They land more often than value bets, but short odds mean that one loss wipes out several wins. The edge in this band is usually around zero or negative because the odds include the bookmaker's margin – the long-term return is at market level, not above it.

Colorado Avalanche – Pittsburgh Penguins: Colorado Avalanche to win (incl. overtime) @ 1.49

Statistics. Colorado have started the season with a record of 4–2–1 and Pittsburgh are 3–3–1. The Avalanche have scored 31 goals in seven games, 26 of them at even strength, and have a 58.8% 5v5 expected-goals share; Pittsburgh have 18 even-strength goals. Blackwood's save percentage is 87.9 and Silovs' is 88.5. Situation. Mackenzie Blackwood has been confirmed as Colorado's starter. Arturs Silovs is projected, but not confirmed, as Pittsburgh's starter. Neither team is playing on consecutive days, but Colorado are playing their third game in four days and have absences in attack. Estimate. Colorado Avalanche: 65.3% · Pittsburgh Penguins: 34.7% Why we are backing it. Colorado are the more likely winners thanks to their strong 5v5 play and home advantage. However, considering the congested schedule, absences in attack and Blackwood's modest early-season save percentage, there is no evidence-based reason to deviate from the market's fair estimate.

Odds 1.49 · market 65.3% · our estimate 65% · edge -2.7%

Tulane Green Wave – Memphis Tigers: Memphis Tigers to win @ 1.40

Statistics. In ESPN's provided sample, Tulane have scored 18.4 and conceded 22.6 points per game over five games; Memphis have scored 38.5 and conceded 20.8 points per game over six. Memphis' official preview states that the offence has produced 516.7 yards per game and that QB Marcus Stokes has thrown 16 touchdowns. Situation. The official preview names Marcus Stokes as Memphis' and Kadin Semonza as Tulane's first-choice quarterback, with neither listed as out or doubtful. Both played on 10.10., so there is no rest differential, but Memphis travel to New Orleans on a six-day week. Estimate. Tulane Green Wave: 31.8% · Memphis Tigers: 68.2% Why we are backing it. Memphis are clear favourites based on their stronger early-season offensive output, but no concrete evidence-based reason was found to deviate from the market's fair estimate. Therefore, the estimate is kept at 68.2%.

Odds 1.40 · market 68.2% · our estimate 68% · edge -4.5%

Over/Under and Handicap

In Over/Under bets, you are betting on the match's total goals or points rather than the winner. Odds are 1.70–2.20 and the rationale is always specified: pace of play, goaltenders, absences or conditions. In ice hockey, overtime and the shootout are included; in football, only regulation time counts. In Handicap bets, you are betting on the winning margin: Lakers −4.5 wins if the Lakers win by at least five.

Colorado Avalanche – Pittsburgh Penguins: Over 6.5 goals @ 2.06

Statistics. Colorado have scored 4.4 and conceded 3.1 goals per game over seven games; Pittsburgh's respective figures are 3.6 and 3.1. Colorado's power play is 20.0% and Pittsburgh's is 16.7%, while the teams take 30.6 and 28.4 shots per game respectively. Situation. Mackenzie Blackwood (87.9%) is confirmed to start in goal for Colorado, while Arturs Silovs (88.5%) is projected but not confirmed for Pittsburgh. Neither is in a b2b situation, but the Avalanche are playing their third game in four days. Estimate. Over: 54% · Under: 46% Why we are backing it. Both offences' early-season output exceeds 3.5 goals per game, and the goaltenders' save percentages below 89% tilt the estimate narrowly towards Over 6.5 goals. Deviation from the market: High early-season attacking averages and both projected goaltenders' save percentages below 89% raise the Over estimate above the market.

Odds 2.06 · market 50.2% · our estimate 54% · edge +11.2%

Deportivo La Coruña – Levante: Over 2.5 goals @ 1.92

Statistics. Deportivo's goal averages over their last 10 matches are 1.5 scored and 1.6 conceded, with Over 2.5 landing 5/10 times. Levante's respective figures are 1.6 and 1.8, and 7/10; in the league, they have conceded 15 goals in seven matches. Situation. The starting line-ups have been confirmed. Deportivo are without five-league-goal Aubameyang, but they have conceded in all eight of their league matches; Levante come into the match with four days' recovery after Monday's over-100-minute Sevilla match. Estimate. Over: 54% · Under: 46% Why we are backing it. Levante's high-scoring matches, both defences leaking goals and the away team's short recovery tilt the estimate slightly above the market, although Deportivo's attacking absences limit the gap. Deviation from the market: The Over estimate is lifted by Levante's 15 goals conceded in seven league matches, Deportivo's lack of clean sheets and Levante's short recovery, although Aubameyang's absence curbs the rise.

Odds 1.92 · market 51.9% · our estimate 54% · edge +3.7%

Specials

No special bets in this publication.

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