Tips 2026-09-12

There is plenty to follow in Saturday's schedule in English Premier League football, KHL ice hockey and MLB baseball. The evening's offering focuses on European ball sports, while North American professional leagues will also be followed late in the evening. Attention also turns to NFL season games on Sunday.

Likely

Odds 1.30–1.60, high probability of success. The return on these is typically close to 100; the aim is a high probability of success, not value odds.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Cincinnati Bengals: Cincinnati Bengals to win @ 1.54

Statistics. Tampa Bay finished the 2025 season with a record of 8–9 and Cincinnati 6–11; Joe Burrow’s toe injury kept him out for nine games. The Bengals scored 24.4 points per game and ranked sixth in passing offence (235.6 yards/game), while the Buccaneers' pass defence ranked 27th (238.2 yards/game). Situation. Burrow is expected to be fit to play, while the Bengals' Chase and Higgins had no game status in Friday's report; defensive player Shemar Stewart is doubtful. Jalen McMillan, Sean Tucker and Justin Skule are doubtful for Tampa Bay. The game will be played at Cincinnati's Paycor Stadium on Sunday 13.9.2026 at 20.00 (Helsinki time). Estimate. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 35.6% · Cincinnati Bengals: 64.4% Why we back it. We do not deviate from the market's fair distribution: Cincinnati's home advantage and strong passing-offence matchup are already priced in, and the squad situation does not provide sufficient grounds to raise the Bengals' estimate.

Odds 1.54 · market 64.5% · our estimate 64% · edge -0.8%

Los Angeles Dodgers – Miami Marlins: Los Angeles Dodgers to win @ 1.51

Statistics. The Dodgers' record is 90–57 and the Marlins' 72–76. The Dodgers average 5.0 runs per game against the Marlins' 4.4, and the teams' ERA figures are 3.65 and 4.11; the projected starters are Tyler Glasnow (4–0, ERA 3.12, WHIP 0.88) and Tyler Phillips (5–6, ERA 3.51, WHIP 1.33). Situation. Glasnow and Phillips are listed as the starters in MLB's preview, but the starting line-ups were still TBD. Shohei Ohtani is on the Dodgers' injured list, Freddie Freeman is expected to return on 12 September and Marlins closer Pete Fairbanks returned from the injured list on 9 September. Estimate. Los Angeles Dodgers: 63.6% · Miami Marlins: 36.4% Why we back it. We do not deviate from the market's fair estimate: the Dodgers' team and starting-pitcher advantage is offset by Ohtani's absence, and this information was already reflected in the current odds.

Odds 1.51 · market 63.6% · our estimate 64% · edge -4.0%

Sunderland – Arsenal: Arsenal to win @ 1.49

Statistics. After three league rounds, Arsenal's xG figures are 5.8 created and 2.3 conceded, Sunderland's 4.2 and 3.2. Arsenal have 9 points and a goal difference of +5, Sunderland have 4 points and a goal difference of 0; xPTS unavailable. Situation. Habib Diarra and Romaine Mundle are absent for Sunderland; William Saliba is absent for Arsenal, while Cristhian Mosquera and Jurrien Timber are doubtful. Sunderland played Hull during the week and Arsenal travelled to Napoli, but Arsenal are expected to restore full-strength players to the starting line-up. Estimate. 1: 13.6% · X: 22.6% · 2: 63.8% Why we back it. There is no concrete, sourced reason to deviate from the market anchor: Arsenal's strong start to the season is balanced by Sunderland's home setting, defensive absences and midweek workload.

Odds 1.49 · market 63.8% · our estimate 64% · edge -4.9%

Value bets

Our estimate exceeds the market.

Tottenham – Everton: Tottenham to win @ 2.10

Statistics. In Opta's 10,000-match simulation, Tottenham won 48.2%, the draw occurred 24.7% and Everton won 27.1%. Tottenham have one point and no goals scored from three league matches; Everton are unbeaten in the league. xG and xPTS figures: unavailable. Situation. Dejan Kulusevski, Wilson Odobert, Xavi Simons and Mykhaylo Mudryk are absent for Tottenham; James Maddison, Pedro Porro and Destiny Udogie are doubtful. Christian Nørgaard is absent for Everton and James Garner is doubtful. Tottenham last played on 5.9. and Everton on 6.9., so neither has an unusual fixture congestion. Estimate. 1: 48.2% · X: 24.7% · 2: 27.1% Why we back it. We deviate slightly from the market towards Tottenham due to the venue and home advantage: Everton have won only one of their last 17 Premier League away matches against Tottenham, and Opta's simulation supports a small uplift. Deviation from the market: The venue/home advantage raises Tottenham's estimate slightly above the market, as Everton have won only one of their last 17 Premier League away matches against Tottenham.

Odds 2.10 · market 46.7% · our estimate 48% · edge +1.2%

Dynamo Moskova – Dinamo Minsk: Dynamo Moskova to win in regulation time @ 2.20

Statistics. Dynamo Moskova scored 1, 3 and 1 goals in their first three league matches; against Admiral, shots on target were 27–13, but the score after 65 minutes was 1–1. Dinamo Minsk lost their first two matches 3–4 in a shootout and 3–4 in overtime, and Minsk recorded 45 shots on target in the Shanghai match. Corsi/Fenwick and PDO figures: unavailable. Situation. Vladislav Podjapolski and Zach Fucale are projected starting goaltenders, not confirmed. There are no absentees for Moskova in the preview, while Gardner, Limoges and Melosh are absent injured for Minsk; the game will be played on neutral ice in St Petersburg. Neither is on a back-to-back, but Moskova have one more rest day. Estimate. 1: 46% · X: 21% · 2: 33% Why we back it. Squad availability and match schedule raise Moskova's estimate slightly from the market anchor: Minsk are missing three players and have one day less recovery time. The neutral venue and Moskova's poor early-season finishing keep the deviation modest.

Odds 2.20 · market 43.3% · our estimate 46% · edge +1.2%

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