Tips 2026-09-13

Sunday's schedule features football from the English Premier League, Portugal's Primeira Liga and Brazil's Série A, where the stakes are high as the season progresses. In addition, the NFL round of fixtures brings several intriguing match-ups from across the United States in the evening.

Likely

Odds 1.30–1.60, high probability of landing. The return on these is typically close to 100; the aim is a high strike rate, not value odds.

Flamengo – Corinthians: Flamengo to win @ 1.44

Statistics. Flamengo have 54 points from 26 matches and a goal difference of 51–21, while Corinthians have 32 points and a goal difference of 27–27. Flamengo have won four of their last five matches in all competitions, while Corinthians have lost four consecutive Série A matches. xG and xPTS figures: not available. Situation. Flamengo returned from Quito after a 2–0 win, and Leonardo Jardim expects rotation due to only two recovery days and the exertion of a match played at an altitude of 2,850 metres; Pedro is nevertheless expected to start. Yuri Alberto is out for Corinthians with a thigh injury, and both teams have the second leg of their Libertadores quarter-final as early as the following week. Estimate. 1: 70% · X: 20% · 2: 10% Why we are backing it. Flamengo's deeper squad can cope with rotation better than Corinthians, and the visitors arrive on a run of four league defeats without Yuri Alberto. However, the Quito exertion and rotation lower the home-win estimate from the market's 72.8% to 70%. Deviation from the market: Flamengo's expected rotation and the Quito exertion with only two recovery days lower the home-win estimate from the market's 72.8% to 70%.

Odds 1.44 · market 66.0% · our estimate 70% · edge +0.8%

Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Cincinnati Bengals: Cincinnati Bengals to win @ 1.49

Statistics. Tampa Bay finished the 2025 season with an 8–9 record and Cincinnati with 6–11; Joe Burrow's toe injury kept him out for nine matches. The Bengals scored 24.4 points per match and ranked second in the NFL in red-zone efficiency (66.7%), while the Buccaneers allowed a red-zone touchdown on 69.8% of opponents' attempts; on the other hand, Cincinnati allowed 28.9 points and 380.9 yards per match. Situation. Tampa Bay's Jalen McMillan, Sean Tucker and Justin Skule are listed as doubtful, while Christian Rozeboom is questionable. Shemar Stewart is doubtful for Cincinnati; Ja’Marr Chase missed Friday's practice due to a knee issue but was not given a game status. This is both teams' season opener, so the match schedule provides neither with a rest advantage. Estimate. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 35.6% · Cincinnati Bengals: 64.4% Why we are backing it. The sources support the Bengals' status as favourites, but Cincinnati's defensive figures from last season and Tampa's offensive potential prevent a justified deviation from the market's fair distribution.

Odds 1.49 · market 64.4% · our estimate 64% · edge -4.0%

Miami Dolphins – Las Vegas Raiders: Las Vegas Raiders to win @ 1.54

Statistics. Miami went 7–10 in the 2025 season and Las Vegas 3–14; the point differentials were Miami −77 and Las Vegas −191. The Raiders scored 14.2 points and 245.2 yards per match, Miami 20.4 points and 300.7 yards; Miami's away record was 2–6 and the Raiders' home record 2–7. Situation. Miami begin under new head coach Jeff Hafley and quarterback Malik Willis with the NFL's youngest roster, while the Raiders have new head coach Klint Kubiak and starting quarterback Kirk Cousins. Raiders' Brock Bowers is confirmed out; Ashton Jeanty and the players named on Miami's injury report practised in full on Friday. Estimate. Miami Dolphins: 37.7% · Las Vegas Raiders: 62.3% Why we are backing it. No source-based reason to deviate from the market was found, so the estimate is kept at the market's fair distribution. Miami's overhaul supports the Raiders, but Bowers' absence reduces the favourite's offensive edge.

Odds 1.54 · market 62.3% · our estimate 62% · edge -4.1%

Value selections

Our estimate exceeds the market.

Manchester United – Manchester City: Manchester City to win @ 2.25

Statistics. United's record from three league matches is 1–1–1 with goals of 7–6; the team have had 68 shots, 19 shots on target and accumulated 7.3 xG. City have won all three league matches, and StatMuse records 6.22 xG, 2.59 xGA and goals of 7–2 for them. Situation. United welcome Luke Shaw back, but Carlos Baleba, Matthijs de Ligt, Manuel Ugarte and Amad Diallo are out. City are without Jérémy Doku, but Nico O’Reilly is available; City played in Porto on Tuesday and United at home against Sabah on Thursday, so City have two extra days to recover. Estimate. 1: 29.5% · X: 24.5% · 2: 46.0% Why we are backing it. We deviate slightly from the market towards City due to the squad and match-schedule advantage: United are without several options, and City have two extra days to recover. Deviation from the market: The squad and match-schedule advantage raise Manchester City's estimate slightly above the market: United are without several options and City have two extra days to recover.

Odds 2.25 · market 43.8% · our estimate 46% · edge +3.5%

Buffalo Bills – Houston Texans: Houston Texans to win @ 2.00

Statistics. Houston allowed 4,713 yards and 295 points in the 2025 regular season, ranking first and second in the NFL respectively. Buffalo allowed 5.1 yards per rushing attempt; Josh Allen's passer rating in three regular-season away defeats in Houston totals 64.2, and he has been sacked 11 times in those games. Situation. The NFL's final Week 1 report has no game statuses for the Texans, while Buffalo's Ty Johnson, Jordan Hancock and T.J. Sanders are questionable. Buffalo play their first match in Jim Leonhard's new defensive system, while Houston strengthened their offence with David Montgomery and investments in the offensive line. It is the season opener for both, so there is no differentiating rest advantage. Estimate. Buffalo Bills 49% · Houston Texans 51% Why we are backing it. Squad availability and rotation tilt the estimate towards Houston: the Texans' Week 1 report is clean, and Buffalo are making their debut in a new defensive system. Houston's defence's previous success against Allen supports a narrow deviation from the market.

Odds 2.00 · market 47.8% · our estimate 51% · edge +2.0%

Arouca – Santa Clara: Arouca to win @ 2.68

Statistics. After five rounds, Arouca's record is 3–1–1 with goals of 7–3, Santa Clara's 3–2–0 with goals of 9–3. Arouca have won both home matches this season by an aggregate score of 6–1; their record in the last ten league home matches is 7–1–2, while Santa Clara's record in their last ten league away matches is 2–5–3. xG and xPTS figures: not available. Situation. Arouca centre-back Javi Sánchez is doubtful due to a physical issue, and Boris Popovic is expected to continue in the starting line-up; predicted line-ups are available for both teams. Arouca last played on 7.9. and Santa Clara on 6.9., so they have had six and seven days to recover. Estimate. 1: 38% · X: 30% · 2: 32% Why we are backing it. The surface and home advantage distinguish our estimate from the market: Arouca have won both home matches this season and seven of their last ten league home matches. Javi Sánchez's uncertainty keeps the uplift modest. Deviation from the market: The surface and home advantage raise Arouca's estimate: the team have won both home matches this season and seven of their last ten league home matches.

Odds 2.68 · market 35.4% · our estimate 38% · edge +1.8%

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