Tips 2026-09-16

Wednesday afternoon's offering features domestic ice hockey, baseball from the United States and WTA tennis continuing into the night. The day's matches offer plenty of interesting match-ups across different competitions, with both regular-season fixtures and international tour contests on the schedule.

Likely

Likely selections are favourites whose chances of winning we consider at least as likely as the market does. They land more often than value bets, but short odds mean that one loss wipes out several wins. The edge in this band is generally around zero or negative, because the odds include the bookmaker's margin – long-term return is at the market level, not above it.

HIFK – Jukurit: HIFK to win incl. overtime and shootout @ 1.35

Statistics. Jukurit have started with three wins and nine points from five matches; the goals are 12–10. HIFK's record from three matches is one win and goals of 7–11. A week ago, Jukurit won 3–1, despite HIFK leading the shots 44–33 and possession 54.9–45.1%. Situation. Jukurit won 4–1 away to TPS on Tuesday and now play back-to-back, while it has been a week since HIFK's previous match. Hugo Alnefelt starts in goal for HIFK and Matthieu Herpin for Jukurit; HIFK also welcome back Liukas and Melart and hand David Němeček his debut. Estimate. HIFK: 72% · Jukurit: 28% Why we are betting. The schedule and line-up raise HIFK's estimate slightly above the market anchor: Jukurit are on a back-to-back and change goalkeeper, while the rested HIFK are strengthened by three players.

Odds 1.35 · market 69.3% · our estimate 72% · edge -2.8%

Kayla Day – Liudmila Samsonova: Liudmila Samsonova to win @ 1.33

Statistics. Samsonova is 50th in the WTA rankings and Day 123rd; their main-draw records on hard courts are 104–85 and 8–20. Both have won six of their last ten matches, and there have been no head-to-head meetings; surface-specific Elo is unavailable. Situation. The tournament is played on outdoor hard courts, and both came through the opening round in straight sets. Day's match lasted 2 h 40 min and Samsonova's 1 h 54 min, but Day has one extra rest day; no confirmed injury concerns were found. Estimate. Kayla Day: 31.4% · Liudmila Samsonova: 68.6% Why we are betting. There is no concrete, sourced reason to deviate from the market anchor. Samsonova is a clear favourite, but odds of 1.33 offer no edge at this estimate.

Odds 1.33 · market 68.6% · our estimate 69% · edge -8.8%

Value bets

Our estimate exceeds the market.

San Francisco Giants – St. Louis Cardinals: San Francisco Giants to win @ 2.44

Statistics. San Francisco's record is 63–89 and St. Louis's 75–77. The ERA of projected starters Anthony Molina is 5.24 and Matthew Liberatore's 5.53. The Giants are 5–5 in their last ten (+6 runs), the Cardinals 4–6 (−5), and San Francisco lead the season head-to-head 4–1. Situation. The match is played at Busch Stadium, so San Francisco are the away team. Molina and Liberatore are projected, not confirmed, and the official batting orders are still TBD. The Giants are without, among others, Rafael Devers, Willy Adames and Matt Chapman; the teams played at the same stadium the previous evening, and the Giants' starter pitched 6.2 innings in a 10–3 win. Estimate. San Francisco Giants: 41.5% · St. Louis Cardinals: 58.5% Why we are betting. The rotation makes the match more even than the market: Liberatore's 5.53 ERA does not support such clear favouritism, and the Giants have won four of the five season head-to-head meetings. However, the Giants' significant line-up absences limit the estimate to 41.5%. Deviation from the market: Rotation: Due to Matthew Liberatore's 5.53 ERA, the gap between the starting pitchers is smaller than the market suggests, raising San Francisco's estimate.

Odds 2.44 · market 38.5% · our estimate 42% · edge +1.3%

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