Tips 2026-09-16

Wednesday's schedule features football from both domestic leagues and across Europe, while the afternoon also includes Challenger tennis. Basketball sees a European club fixture, while MLB baseball is available overnight.

Likely

Likely selections are favourites whose chances of winning we consider at least as likely as the market does. They land more often than value selections, but short odds mean that one loss wipes out several wins. The edge in this band is generally around zero or negative, because the odds include the bookmaker's margin – the long-term return is at market level, not above it.

Atlético Madrid – Osasuna: Atlético Madrid to win @ 1.40

Statistics. After five league rounds, Atlético's record is 3–1–1 with goals of 10–6, while Osasuna's record is 2–1–2 with goals of 5–8. Osasuna have lost their last two league matches by an aggregate score of 2–7; xG and xPTS figures are not available from the sources used. Situation. Atlético are without Alexander Sørloth, Julián Álvarez and Pablo Barrios, and rotation is possible due to a congested fixture schedule and Sunday's Real Madrid derby. Osasuna are without Rosier, Jorge Herrando, Aimar Oroz and Moi Gómez, and Luis Ramis has announced changes to the starting line-up. Estimate. 1: 70.1% · X: 19.0% · 2: 10.9% Why we are backing it. We do not deviate from the market's fair distribution: Atlético's home advantage is offset by absences in attack and the risk of rotation. At odds of 1.40, our model indicates no edge in this selection.

Odds 1.40 · market 70.1% · our estimate 70% · edge -1.9%

Max Schoenhaus – Matteo Martineau: Max Schoenhaus to win @ 1.50

Statistics. Schoenhaus's 2026 record is 31–23 and 7–4 indoors; Martineau's corresponding records are 32–29 and 8–7. The ATP rankings are Schoenhaus 292 and Martineau 281, and there have been no head-to-head matches. Situation. Schoenhaus came through qualifying in Rennes on 13.–14.9. with two wins, the latter ending 4–6, 6–3, 6–1; Martineau's previous match was on 7.9., so the Frenchman has the rest advantage. The tournament's own preview confirms the match as Wednesday's first match at 11.00 (Helsinki time) Rennes time; no return from injury was reported in the sources. Estimate. Max Schoenhaus: 64.8% · Matteo Martineau: 35.2% Why we are backing it. Schoenhaus's better recent form supports his status as favourite, but the qualifying workload and Martineau's rest advantage prevent a source-based deviation from the market's fair estimate.

Odds 1.50 · market 64.8% · our estimate 65% · edge -2.8%

Bakken Bears – Landstede Hammers: Bakken Bears to win @ 1.55

Statistics. Landstede won the Supercup played on 12.9. against Donar 70–62; the team recorded 37 rebounds, 13 assists and 11 steals. The teams' only previous meeting ended in a 56–52 win for Landstede in February 2024. 2026–27 season Off/Def rating, pace and TS%: not available. Situation. The match is played on a neutral court in Samokov, and defeat ends BCL qualifying. Bakken reported several injuries during the preparation period and significant turnover among key players; Landstede retained part of their championship core and fielded a full-strength line-up in Saturday's Supercup. Neither side is playing a back-to-back match. Estimate. Bakken Bears: 62% · Landstede Hammers: 38% Why we are backing it. Squad composition and rotation reduce Bakken's estimate from the market's 67 per cent: several injuries during the preparation period and turnover among key players increase uncertainty around the favourite, while Landstede's continuity supports the underdog.

Odds 1.55 · market 59.7% · our estimate 62% · edge -3.9%

Value selections

Our estimate exceeds the market.

Omonia Nicosia – Celta Vigo: Draw @ 3.49

Statistics. Omonia's record over their last six matches is 2–2–2, and the team have scored an average of 1.33 and conceded 0.83 goals; across their last three home matches they have conceded just one goal in total. Celta's record over their last six matches is 0–4–2, with average goals of 0.50–1.00; all three of the season's La Liga away matches have ended in draws, with two clean sheets. Comparable xG and xPTS data: not available. Situation. Celta's official travelling squad includes Borja Iglesias, Aleix Febas and Jones El-Abdellaoui, but Iago Aspas was left out through injury; Omonia are without Fotis Kitsos and Carel Eiting, and the predicted starting line-ups have been checked. Omonia played on 12.9., Celta on 13.9. and travelled to Cyprus on 15.9., leaving the visitors with less recovery time and a travel burden. Estimate. 1: 25% · X: 30.5% · 2: 44.5% Why we are backing it. Celta's draw-heavy away profile combines with weak attacking output, Iago Aspas's absence, and shorter recovery time and travel. These squad and fixture-schedule factors raise our estimate for a draw above the market's fair probability. Deviation from the market: Squad composition, fixture schedule and the away profile increase the likelihood of a draw: Celta travelled on shorter recovery without Iago Aspas and have drawn all three of the season's league away matches.

Odds 3.49 · market 27.8% · our estimate 31% · edge +6.4%

New York Mets – Baltimore Orioles: Baltimore Orioles to win @ 2.24

Statistics. Baltimore's Chris Bassitt is 7–5, with an ERA of 4.88 and a WHIP of 1.59; the Mets' Robert Stock is 1–3, with an ERA of 5.93 and a WHIP of 1.75. The Orioles are 74–78 and 38–39 away, the Mets are 69–82 and 34–42 at home; the teams' run averages are 4.48 and 4.30. Situation. Bassitt and Stock are projected to start. The injury lists were checked via ESPN's preview; the Orioles played 11 innings the previous evening, but the Mets also had to use their bullpen. Baltimore are three games off the AL's final wild-card spot, while the Mets have already been eliminated. Estimate. New York Mets: 53% · Baltimore Orioles: 47% Why we are backing it. Bassitt's better starting position than Stock and Baltimore's remaining wild-card motivation lift the Orioles' estimate above the market anchor. Deviation from the market: The starting-pitcher matchup and motivation lift the Baltimore Orioles' estimate above the market anchor, as Chris Bassitt's numbers are better than Robert Stock's and the Orioles are still in the wild-card race, while the Mets have already been eliminated.

Odds 2.24 · market 43.6% · our estimate 47% · edge +5.3%

Vitaliy Sachko – Thiago Monteiro: Thiago Monteiro to win @ 1.86

Statistics. In Tennis Abstract's clay sample from the last 52 weeks, Sachko's hold percentage is 74.5 and break percentage is 27.6, while Monteiro's corresponding figures are 79.3 and 22.0. The Elo figures are almost level, Monteiro 1564 and Sachko 1561; Tennis Explorer's 2026 clay records are 32–17 for Monteiro and 25–17 for Sachko. Situation. The match is played on red clay in Szczecin. Both won their opening-round matches in straight sets without retirement, but Sachko also played on 15.9. and this is his sixth match in nine days; Monteiro's opening round was on 14.9. Estimate. Vitaliy Sachko: 44.5% · Thiago Monteiro: 55.5% Why we are backing it. The fixture schedule tilts the estimate towards Monteiro: Sachko has to take to the court for the second consecutive day and is playing his sixth match in nine days.

Odds 1.86 · market 52.7% · our estimate 56% · edge +3.2%

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