Tips 2026-09-17

Thursday's schedule features European club football at two different kick-off times, with UEFA Europa League matches structuring the evening. In addition, a men's European Volleyball Championship match will be played late in the evening, so there is both ball control and points to be decided over the net.

Likely picks

Likely picks are favourites whose chances of winning we consider to be at least as high as the market does. They land more often than value bets, but short odds mean that one loss wipes out several wins. The edge in this band is generally around zero or negative, because the odds include the bookmaker's margin – the long-term return is at market level, not above it.

Italia – Slovenia: Italia to win @ 1.33

Statistics. Italia have won all four of their group matches by 12 sets to 2; most recently, they beat Tshekki 3–1, with Yuri Romanò scoring 24 points at 68 per cent attacking efficiency and Mattia Bottolo scoring 22 points at 72 per cent efficiency. Slovenia are 3–1 with a 10–4 set record; in Wednesday's 3–1 win over Tshekki, Nik Mujanović scored 21 points and had a 48 per cent attacking efficiency. Situation. Slovenia played four sets on Wednesday evening and face Italia the following evening, while Italia had a rest day. Slovenia captain Tine Urnaut is suffering from a leg injury and, according to the source, his tournament is likely over; Italia's expected core line-up is Giannelli–Romanò, Bottolo–Lavia and Balaso. Both have already progressed, and two set wins are enough for Italia to secure top spot in the group. Estimate. Italia 72% · Slovenia 28% Why we are betting. Urnaut's absence and Slovenia's clearly shorter recovery time shift our estimate slightly towards Italia. Italia's potential rotation after winning two sets keeps the deviation from the market anchor small. Deviation from the market: Slovenia captain Tine Urnaut's leg injury and the previous evening's four-set match shift our estimate slightly towards Italia, although two set wins are enough for Italia to win the group.

Odds 1.33 · market 69.4% · our estimate 72% · edge -4.2%

Lillestrøm – Torreense: Lillestrøm to win @ 1.53

Statistics. Lillestrøm have won four of their last five matches and scored 10 goals in them. Torreense's record over their last five matches is one win, three draws and one defeat, with goals of 6–7; xG and xPTS figures are unavailable. Situation. Camil Jebara and Linus Alperud are expected to be absent for Lillestrøm, while Espen Garnås's fitness will be assessed on matchday. Torreense are largely healthy, but Manu Pozo's ankle problem may prevent him from playing; the match schedule has been checked, and neither side has back-to-back fatigue. Estimate. Lillestrøm: 62.5% · Draw: 20.8% · Torreense: 16.8% Why we are betting. No concrete, source-based edge over the market was found, so our estimate is kept exactly at the no-margin market level.

Odds 1.53 · market 62.5% · our estimate 62% · edge -4.5%

OFI Kreeta – TSG Hoffenheim: TSG Hoffenheim to win @ 1.40

Statistics. OFI won their first three league matches, most recently 1–0 away at Olympiacos, and progressed to the league phase by beating CSKA Sofia 5–0 on aggregate. Hoffenheim's first three Bundesliga results were 2–3, 2–3 and 2–1; xG and xPTS figures are unavailable from the sources used. Situation. Dimitrios Nikolaou and Nikos Marinakis are absent for OFI, but Christos Sielis and Aaron Leya Iseka return to the squad. According to Christian Ilzer, Hoffenheim have a full squad, and both teams have five days' recovery time since their previous match. Estimate. OFI Kreeta: 12.7% · Draw: 19.1% · TSG Hoffenheim: 68.2% Why we are betting. Hoffenheim are clear quality favourites, but OFI's strong start to the season and home advantage are already in the market. No concrete, source-based reason was found to deviate from the market's fair estimate.

Odds 1.40 · market 68.2% · our estimate 68% · edge -4.5%

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