Tips 2026-09-19

The overnight betting schedule is focused on North American professional leagues: there is baseball and football in the early hours, as well as American football from the Sunday evening NFL round. It includes both regular-season matches and MLS football. Odds are indicative at the time of retrieval and may change.

Likely

Likely selections are favourites whose chances of winning we consider at least as high as the market does. They land more often than value selections, but short odds mean that one loss wipes out several wins. The edge in this band is generally around zero or negative because the odds include the bookmaker's margin – the long-term return is at market level, not above it.

Pittsburgh Steelers – New England Patriots: New England Patriots to win @ 1.42

Statistics. New England went 14–3 in the 2025 regular season and ranked third in offence and eighth in defence in total yards. In the opening week, Pittsburgh won 20–13 and New England lost 10–13; both produced 4.1 yards per play, but turnovers were 1 for Pittsburgh and 3 for New England. Situation. Steelers CB Joey Porter Jr. is out, while WR Michael Pittman Jr. and OT Troy Fautanu are doubtful; for the Patriots, OT Dametrious Crownover is out and CB Carlton Davis III is doubtful. Aaron Rodgers and Drake Maye are projected starters, not yet confirmed as active on game day. New England has 11 days' rest ahead of the match versus Pittsburgh's seven. Estimate. Pittsburgh Steelers: 31% · New England Patriots: 69% Why we are betting. The game schedule and line-up raise New England's estimate slightly above the market: the Patriots have four additional rest days and Steelers' Joey Porter Jr. is out. The odds are still tight, and the estimate has not been derived from the inverse of the odds.

Odds 1.42 · market 67.8% · our estimate 69% · edge -2.0%

Athletics – Cleveland Guardians: Cleveland Guardians to win @ 1.56

Statistics. Cleveland's record is 79–75 and Athletics' is 61–93; Cleveland has won four of their last five and Athletics one. Tanner Bibee's ERA is 4.16 and Jacob Lopez's 5.02, while the teams' ERA figures are Cleveland 3.79 and Athletics 5.41. Situation. Tanner Bibee and Jacob Lopez are projected as the starting pitchers. Both batting orders are projected rather than confirmed; they were still listed as TBD on MLB's official website. The match starts on Sunday 20.9.2026 at 01.10 (Helsinki time). Estimate. Athletics: 37.8% · Cleveland Guardians: 62.2% Why we are betting. Cleveland are justified favourites due to their better season record and pitching comparison, but these factors already appear to be priced into the market. Therefore, the estimate is kept exactly at the market's fair 62.2 per cent.

Odds 1.56 · market 61.6% · our estimate 62% · edge -3.0%

Minnesota Vikings – Chicago Bears: Chicago Bears to win @ 1.45

Statistics. Chicago scored 59 points and eight touchdowns in the opening week; Caleb Williams threw for 269 and rushed for 65 yards. Minnesota backup Carson Wentz came into the opener with figures of 12/19, 133 yards and three touchdowns. Situation. Carson Wentz is confirmed as Minnesota's starter because Kyler Murray is out with a concussion; Jauan Jennings is also out and Brian O’Neill is questionable. Chicago will start Caleb Williams at quarterback, and the Bears have no players on the final injury report. Neither side is on a short week. Estimate. Minnesota Vikings: 33.7% · Chicago Bears: 66.3% Why we are betting. Murray's absence and Wentz starting support Chicago's status as favourites, but the information is already reflected in the market. No concrete, sourced reason was found to deviate from the market's fair estimate.

Odds 1.45 · market 66.3% · our estimate 66% · edge -3.9%

Value selections

For value selections, our estimate exceeds the market, meaning we believe the odds are too high. They land less often than favourites, and results fluctuate greatly over the short term – the benefit only becomes apparent over dozens of selections if our estimates are correct.

New England Revolution – Orlando City: New England Revolution to win @ 1.91

Statistics. New England are third in the East with a record of 13–8–4 and have collected 26 points from 12 matches at home; the team's home record is 8–2–2. Orlando have a record of 10–11–4, but have collected only 11 points from 12 away matches; on the other hand, their record over the last ten matches is 6–2–2. Situation. New England's Jack Harrison and Alhassan Yusuf are out for at least six weeks, and Luca Langoni is doubtful. Orlando's Antoine Griezmann is doubtful and reportedly did not travel; Orlando also played a U.S. Open Cup semi-final during the week. Estimate. New England Revolution 53.8% · Draw 23.2% · Orlando City 23.0% Why we are betting. The line-up and game schedule raise New England's estimate slightly above the market: Orlando's key attacking player of recent weeks, Griezmann, looks set to miss out, and the away side come into the match after cup exertions.

Odds 1.91 · market 51.3% · our estimate 54% · edge +2.8%

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