Tips 2026-09-20

The NFL's Sunday evening and early Monday morning schedule features three interesting games, as several teams continue their seasons from different starting points. There are inter-divisional match-ups on offer, as well as scenarios in which the rhythm of the offences and the defences' ability to limit big plays are emphasised.

Likely

Likely picks are favourites whose chances of winning we consider at least as likely as the market does. They land more often than value bets, but short odds mean that one loss wipes out several wins. The edge in this band is usually around zero or negative, because the odds include the bookmaker's margin – the long-term return is at market level, not above it.

Indianapolis Colts – Kansas City Chiefs: Kansas City Chiefs to win @ 1.36

Statistics. Kansas City rushed for 220 yards in the opening week, with Kenneth Walker III accounting for 173 of them, while Indianapolis allowed 202 rushing yards against Baltimore. The Colts' offence allowed a 41.2% pressure rate on Daniel Jones; under pressure, Jones went 3/11 and gained nine yards. Situation. Patrick Mahomes took a full part in all of the week's practices without a game status, and Daniel Jones will start at quarterback for the Colts. The Chiefs are without Josh Simmons and Chamarri Conner, Chris Jones and Mansoor Delane are uncertain, and Kansas City has had the shorter rest of the day. Estimate. Indianapolis Colts: 29.2% · Kansas City Chiefs: 70.8% Why we are backing it. The Chiefs are clear favourites, but the sources do not provide sufficient squad, schedule or other grounds to raise our estimate above the market's fair 70.8%.

Odds 1.36 · market 70.8% · our estimate 71% · edge -3.7%

Washington Commanders – Dallas Cowboys: Dallas Cowboys to win @ 1.48

Statistics. Both teams are 0–1 after their season openers. An external 10,000-simulation model estimates Dallas's win probability at 64%, while bet365's handicap was Dallas −4.5 and the total points line was 50.5. Situation. Washington are without Chigoziem Okonkwo and Frankie Luvu, while Dallas are without DeMarvion Overshown and Malik Hooker; Javon Kinlaw is questionable. Dak Prescott and Jayden Daniels are the projected starters, not yet confirmed, and Dallas has had the shorter recovery period of the day due to its Monday game. Estimate. Washington Commanders: 35% · Dallas Cowboys: 65% Why we are backing it. No concrete source-based reason was found to deviate from the market's fair distribution, so Dallas's estimate is kept at 65%.

Odds 1.48 · market 65.0% · our estimate 65% · edge -3.8%

Value bets

In value bets, our estimate exceeds the market, meaning we believe the odds are too high. They land less often than favourites, and results fluctuate considerably over a short period – the benefit only becomes apparent over dozens of bets if our estimates are correct.

Jacksonville Jaguars – Denver Broncos: Jacksonville Jaguars to win @ 2.25

Statistics. Jacksonville opened the season with a 34–10 win over Cleveland and extended its regular-season winning streak to nine games; Denver comes into the game with a 0–1 record. The Jaguars won their previous visit to Denver 34–20 in December 2025. Situation. Denver's Marvin Mims Jr. is confirmed out and RB RJ Harvey is uncertain, while Jacksonville has no absences with a final game status. Trevor Lawrence and Bo Nix are the projected starters, not yet confirmed; Denver has six days' rest following Monday's away game, Jacksonville seven. Estimate. Jacksonville Jaguars 45.5% · Denver Broncos 54.5% Why we are backing it. Denver's confirmed absence of a key receiver and the shorter turnaround are two independent reasons to rate Jacksonville above the market estimate. The increase nevertheless remains modest due to Denver's home advantage. Deviation from the market: Denver's confirmed absence of Marvin Mims Jr. and the shorter six-day rest following Monday's away game increase Jacksonville's win probability above the market estimate.

Odds 2.25 · market 42.6% · our estimate 46% · edge +2.4%

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