Tips 2026-09-23

The overnight schedule features MLB baseball with two games, as the late-season standings underline the importance of every game. There is also an NFL season clash on offer, with the teams seeking important momentum from their early-season performances.

Likely

Likely selections are favourites whose chances of winning we consider at least as likely as the market does. They land more often than value bets, but short odds mean that one loss wipes out several wins. The edge in this band is usually around zero or negative, because the odds include the bookmaker's margin – long-term return is at market level, not above it.

Cincinnati Reds – Atlanta Braves: Atlanta Braves to win @ 1.39

Statistics. Atlanta are 92–65 and Cincinnati 73–84. Chris Sale's record is 14–9 with a 2.18 ERA, Andrew Abbott's is 6–11 with a 4.70 ERA; the teams' run averages are 4.6 for Atlanta and 4.1 for Cincinnati, with ERAs of 3.62 and 4.86. Situation. Andrew Abbott and Chris Sale are listed as probable starters. The official batting orders are still TBD, and FantasyPros line-ups are projected rather than confirmed. Ronald Acuña Jr. is day-to-day with a calf injury, although he is in Atlanta's projected line-up. Estimate. Cincinnati Reds: 31% · Atlanta Braves: 69% Why we play it. Sale's clear pitching advantage and Atlanta's stronger season numbers support their status as favourites, but no concrete reason was found to depart from the market's fair 69%.

Odds 1.39 · market 69.0% · our estimate 69% · edge -4.1%

Atlanta Falcons – Green Bay Packers: Green Bay Packers to win @ 1.40

Statistics. Atlanta have started the season 0–2, losing 13–20 and 3–34; Green Bay are 1–1 after results of 22–39 and 20–17 in overtime. The Falcons have not reached the red zone once in their first two games. EPA/play and DVOA figures: unavailable. Situation. Atlanta have confirmed Michael Penix Jr. as their starting quarterback; he returns after ACL surgery in November 2025. Green Bay's depth chart names Jordan Love as the No. 1 QB, and he is not on the injury report; A.J. Terrell has been moved to the IR list for the Falcons. Both played on Sunday, so both enter the game on a short week. Estimate. Atlanta Falcons: 31.5% · Green Bay Packers: 68.5% Why we play it. The sources did not reveal a concrete line-up, rest or quarterback factor that would justify a deviation from the market's fair estimate; therefore, the estimate is kept at 68.5%.

Odds 1.40 · market 68.5% · our estimate 69% · edge -4.1%

San Diego Padres – Los Angeles Dodgers: Los Angeles Dodgers to win @ 1.45

Statistics. The Dodgers are 97–60 and the Padres 87–70; their records over the last ten games are 7–3 for the Dodgers and 8–2 for the Padres. Yoshinobu Yamamoto's ERA is 2.51 and WHIP 0.87, Robbie Ray's are 3.60 and 1.33. Situation. Ray and Yamamoto are projected starting pitchers, not yet confirmed. The batting orders are also projected; Shohei Ohtani is expected to return to the Dodgers' line-up, but his return had not been confirmed. Estimate. San Diego Padres: 34% · Los Angeles Dodgers: 66% Why we play it. Yamamoto's season numbers are stronger than Ray's, but the market accounts sufficiently for the pitching advantage. Therefore, the estimate is kept exactly at the market's fair 66%.

Odds 1.45 · market 66.0% · our estimate 66% · edge -4.3%

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