Tips 2026-09-24

Thursday's betting offering focuses on tennis and basketball. The day begins with an ATP-level match in Asia, and two interesting EuroLeague contests are played in the evening.

Likely

Likely selections are favourites whose chances of winning we consider to be at least as high as the market does. They land more often than value selections, but short odds mean that one loss wipes out several wins. The edge in this band is generally around zero or negative, as the odds include the bookmaker's margin – long-term return is at market level, not above it.

Juan Manuel Cerundolo – Yi Zhou: Juan Manuel Cerundolo to win @ 1.46

Statistics. Cerundolo is 53rd in the ATP rankings and Zhou 273rd; there have been no head-to-head matches. Cerundolo's 2026 record on hard courts is 7–6, while Zhou's overall record for the season is 21–20 and 13–14 on hard courts. Situation. The match is listed as an upcoming first-round match of the Chengdu ATP 250 tournament on the centre court, with no withdrawal shown in the sources. The surface is outdoor hard; Cerundolo's last recorded match was on 1.9. and Zhou's on 11.9., so neither has the immediate workload of a match on the previous day. Estimate. Juan Manuel Cerundolo: 64.8% · Yi Zhou: 35.2% Why we are betting. The ranking gap favours Cerundolo, but no concrete source-based reason was found to depart from the market's fair distribution, so the estimate is kept anchored to the market.

Odds 1.46 · market 64.8% · our estimate 65% · edge -5.4%

Value selections

For value selections, our estimate exceeds the market's, meaning we believe the odds are too high. They land less often than favourites, and results fluctuate greatly over the short term – the benefit only becomes apparent across dozens of selections if our estimates are correct.

Real Madrid – Dubai Basketball: Real Madrid to win @ 2.30

Statistics. Real Madrid won the teams' meeting played on 18.9. in overtime, 98–95, and the head-to-head record is 2–1 to Real. In the Super Cup, Real also beat Olympiacos 93–89, while Dubai lost to Fenerbahçe 77–85; advanced team statistics for the season are not yet available. Situation. According to the preview information, Dzanan Musa is out for Dubai; Usman Garuba is absent for Real and Sergio Llull is doubtful, while official match-specific injury reports had not yet been issued. Neither team is playing a back-to-back game, and Real stayed in the United Arab Emirates to prepare after the Super Cup. Estimate. Real Madrid: 45.5% · Dubai Basketball: 54.5% Why we are betting. Musa's absence and Real's two recent Super Cup wins, including the direct 98–95 victory over Dubai, lift our estimate for Real slightly above the market anchor. Deviation from the market: I raise the estimate for Real Madrid slightly based on Dubai's absence of Dzanan Musa and Real's two recent Super Cup wins, including the direct 98–95 victory.

Odds 2.30 · market 42.8% · our estimate 46% · edge +4.6%

Anadolu Efes – Barcelona: Anadolu Efes to win @ 2.18

Statistics. In RealGM's match preview, Anadolu Efes's early-season record is 3–0, including 2–0 away from home, and Barcelona's is 1–1. The previous EuroLeague meetings ended 78–71 to Barcelona on 24.3.2026 and 74–73 to Efes on 20.11.2025. Situation. The match is played at Barcelona's Palau Blaugrana, so the input's home–away order was reversed. Tosan Evbuomwan and Yoan Makoundou are confirmed out for Barcelona; sources treat the match as the EuroLeague season opener, and no planned rests are reported in the preview. Estimate. Anadolu Efes: 47% · Barcelona: 53% Why we are betting. Barcelona's two confirmed absences from the squad and Efes's better recorded early-season results shift the estimate slightly towards Efes.

Odds 2.18 · market 43.8% · our estimate 47% · edge +2.5%

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