Tips 2026-09-27

Sunday morning's offering focuses on international tennis, with matches on both the men's and women's tours in Asia. The day's contests feature different playing styles and match-ups, so form, surface and recent performances are emphasised in the pre-match assessments.

Likely

Likely selections are favourites whose chances of winning we consider to be at least as high as the market does. They land more often than value selections, but short odds mean that one loss wipes out several wins. The edge in this band is generally around zero or negative, because the odds include the bookmaker's margin – the long-term return is at market level, not above it.

Maya Joint – Kimberly Birrell: Maya Joint to win @ 1.58

Statistics. According to the WTA, Birrell played two three-set matches on Saturday; the semi-final against Bondaria lasted 2 hours 30 minutes. Joint's semi-final ended when Korneeva retired after 49 minutes at 6–1, 1–0, and this is the players' first head-to-head meeting. Situation. The match is the WTA 250 final on the hard court in Seoul, and both are included in the WTA final preview with no reported withdrawal. The recovery situation favours Joint, as Birrell played two long three-set matches on Saturday, while Joint's semi-final lasted only 49 minutes. Estimate. Maya Joint: 64% · Kimberly Birrell: 36% Why we bet. Match load and recovery lift Joint's estimate slightly above the market's fair 61.3%: Birrell's double three-set exertion on Saturday is a tangible disadvantage in the final. Deviation from the market: Match load and recovery favour Maya Joint, as Birrell played two three-set matches on Saturday compared with Joint's 49-minute semi-final.

Odds 1.58 · market 61.3% · our estimate 64% · edge +1.1%

Adrian Mannarino – Denis Shapovalov: Denis Shapovalov to win @ 1.40

Statistics. Shapovalov is 50th in the ATP rankings and Mannarino 78th, and the head-to-head record is 3–1 to Shapovalov. Both have won two matches in Chengdu in straight sets; Shapovalov won the most recent head-to-head in August 2026 by 6–1, 6–4. Situation. Both last played on 25.9. and came through without a third set, so there is no clear difference in workload. The quarter-final is played on a hard court, and there is no withdrawal on the day's schedule. Estimate. Adrian Mannarino 30.4% · Denis Shapovalov 69.6% Why we bet. Shapovalov's ranking, 3–1 head-to-head record and strong results in Chengdu support his status as favourite, but they provide no source-based grounds for raising the estimate above the market's fair 69.6%.

Odds 1.40 · market 69.6% · our estimate 70% · edge -2.6%

Alexandre Muller – Alejandro Davidovich Fokina: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina to win @ 1.30

Statistics. Davidovich Fokina is 29th in the ATP rankings and Muller 135th. Davidovich Fokina beat Juan Manuel Cerundolo 6–4, 6–4 in the previous round and Muller beat Federico Cina 7–6, 6–1; this is the players' first meeting. Situation. The match is played on the outdoor hard court in Chengdu, and both played their previous round on Saturday. Davidovich Fokina returned from a long competitive break but won his comeback match in two sets; the match is on Sunday's schedule and there is no indication of a withdrawal. Estimate. Alexandre Muller: 27.3% · Alejandro Davidovich Fokina: 72.7% Why we bet. The ranking gap and a convincing result in the opening round support his status as favourite, but there are no concrete source-based grounds for deviating from the market's fair probability.

Odds 1.30 · market 72.6% · our estimate 73% · edge -5.5%

Over/Under

No Over/Under selections in this publication.

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