Tips 2026-10-01

Thursday's schedule is dominated by international fixtures in football's UEFA Nations League and early-round match-ups in the basketball EuroLeague season. Several top-level international contests are on offer, with the set-ups shaped by the latest relative strengths of both national teams and club sides.

Likely

Likely selections are favourites whose victory we consider at least as likely as the market does. They land more often than value selections, but short odds mean that one loss wipes out several wins. The edge in this band is generally around zero or negative because the odds include the bookmaker's margin – the long-term return is at market level, not above it.

Portugal – Norway: Portugal to win (draw no bet) @ 1.45

Statistics. According to UEFA, Portugal opened the group by beating Wales 1–0 and Norway away 2–1; Norway beat Denmark 3–2 in their opener before the Portugal defeat. xG, xPTS and a consistent sample of 5–10 matches: unavailable. Situation. Both play on 1.10. and again on 4.10., so the fixture schedule is equally congested for both. No absences were reported on UEFA's match pages viewed on 1.10.; starting line-ups had not yet been published. Estimate. Portugal: 65.5% · Norway: 34.5% Why we are betting. No concrete source-backed reason was found to deviate from the market's fair distribution, so the estimate is kept exactly at the market anchor.

Odds 1.45 · market 65.5% · our estimate 66% · edge -5.0%

BC Dubai – Fenerbahce: Fenerbahce to win @ 1.50

Statistics. Both teams have started the EuroLeague season 2–0. Fenerbahce most recently beat Bayern 100–76 and made 15/30 three-pointers; Dubai beat Barcelona 94–87 and Real Madrid 78–77. A sample of at least five matches for offensive/defensive ratings and average points: unavailable. Situation. Fenerbahce are at home. Shane Larkin is doubtful, while Dzanan Musa, Mam Jaiteh and Justin Anderson are absent for Dubai; no genuine rest situations were reported. Neither plays a back-to-back game, as both teams' previous EuroLeague match was on Tuesday 29.9. Estimate. BC Dubai: 37.1% · Fenerbahce: 62.9% Why we are betting. Fenerbahce are justified home favourites and Dubai's absences support the selection, but Dubai's strong 2–0 start means the estimate does not deviate from the market's fair probability.

Odds 1.50 · market 63.0% · our estimate 63% · edge -5.6%

Greece – Netherlands: Netherlands to win (draw no bet) @ 1.43

Statistics. Greece have started the Nations League with two away wins, scoring 3–1, while Netherlands have one win and one draw, scoring 3–2. In the head-to-head record, Netherlands have 9 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat; xG and xPTS figures are unavailable from the sources used. Situation. Cody Gakpo, Brian Brobbey, Lutsharel Geertruida, Justin Kluivert, Donyell Malen and Jean Paul van Hecke are absent for Netherlands; no absences were reported in Greece's latest preview. Both have the same congested fixture schedule: matches on 24.9., 27.9., 1.10. and 4.10. Estimate. Greece: 34.2% · Netherlands: 65.8% Why we are betting. Netherlands are the favourites in the DNB market, but the sources provide no basis for raising their estimate above the market's fair probability. Greece's strong start and Netherlands' absences support retaining the market estimate.

Odds 1.43 · market 65.8% · our estimate 66% · edge -5.9%

Over/Under

In Over/Under selections, the bet is on the match's total number of goals or points, not the winner. The odds are 1.70–2.20 and the rationale is always specified: fixture schedule, goalkeepers, absences or conditions. In ice hockey, overtime and the shootout are included, while in football only normal time counts.

Germany – Serbia: Under 3.5 goals @ 1.85

Statistics. Germany's last five matches have produced a total of 11 goals: Germany have scored 1.0 and conceded 1.2 goals per match. Serbia's corresponding figures are 1.0 scored and 2.6 conceded; each sample consists of two matches from the 2026–27 season and three from 2025–26, and xG figures were unavailable. Situation. Germany are without attacking players Kai Havertz and Jamal Musiala, as well as defender Nico Schlotterbeck. Serbia's star striker Dušan Vlahović is absent; official starting line-ups had not yet been published, but absences and predicted line-ups were checked against sources. Estimate. Over: 43% · Under: 57% Why we are betting. The low total-goal rate in Germany's recent matches and significant attacking absences for both teams push the estimate below the market expectation. Deviation from the market: Germany's low-scoring last five matches and the absences of Havertz, Musiala and Vlahović shift the estimate towards the Under.

Odds 1.85 · market 52.3% · our estimate 57% · edge +5.4%

Hapoel Tel Aviv – Real Madrid: Under 175.5 points @ 1.91

Statistics. In an augmented sample of 10 EuroLeague matches, Hapoel scored 84.3 and conceded 87.2 points per match, while Real Madrid recorded 87.2 and 81.9 respectively. The average total points figures were 171.5 and 169.1; no numerical pace figure was available, so pace was assessed from average points. Situation. Hapoel are without Blatt, Coffey, Ennis, Ginat and Toppin, while Real are without Garuba. Neither plays on consecutive days, but for Real this is their second EuroLeague game in under 48 hours; it is Round 3 of the regular season. Estimate. Over: 46% · Under: 54% Why we are betting. Both augmented samples are below the line in terms of average total points, and Hapoel's absences plus Real's congested travel and fixture schedule marginally support the Under. However, no bookmaker-specific odds confirmation was found. Deviation from the market: the average points from the augmented 10-match samples, Hapoel's several absences and Real Madrid's congested fixture schedule shift the estimate towards the Under market.

Odds 1.91 · market 50.0% · our estimate 54% · edge +3.1%

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