Saturday 3 Oct 2026 · Afternoon · published Sat, 3 Oct 2026, 15:20 (Helsinki time)
Tips 2026-10-03
Result: 1/4 hit · return 48.0%
| Match | Sport | Pick | Odds | Kick-off (Helsinki time) | Status | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Totals & spreadsOver/under picks call the match's total goals or points, not the winner. Odds are 1.70–2.20 and the reason is always named: pace, goaltending, absences or conditions. In ice hockey overtime and the shootout count; in football only regulation time. Spread picks call the winning margin: Lakers −4.5 wins if the Lakers win by five or more. | ||||||
| Ilves – Kiekko-EspooLiiga | Ice hockey | Under 4.5 goalsOver/Under 4.5 goals · CasumoOdds 2.14 · market 44.4% · our estimate 49% · edge +4.9%i | 2.14 | Sat, 3 Oct 2026, 17:00 | Loss | 6–4 → 10 goals, line 4.5 |
| SaiPa – JokeritLiiga | Ice hockey | Under 5.5 goalsOver/Under 5.5 goals · Unibet (NL)Odds 1.92 · market 51.2% · our estimate 54% · edge +3.7%i | 1.92 | Sat, 3 Oct 2026, 17:00 | Win | 3–2 → 5 goals, line 5.5 |
| Lukko – ÄssätLiiga | Ice hockey | Under 5.5 goalsOver/Under 5.5 goals · 888Odds 1.70 · market 56.4% · our estimate 60% · edge +2.0%i | 1.70 | Sat, 3 Oct 2026, 17:00 | Loss | 2–5 → 7 goals, line 5.5 |
Sorceress's pickAdded at the administrator's discretion after the model rejected or did not propose it. Tracked separately. | ||||||
| Vaasan Sport - HIFKsm-liiga | Ice hockey | Vincent MarleauPlayer to score over 1.5 points · UnibetNo model estimate for this market | 5.20 | Sat, 3 Oct 2026, 17:00 | Loss | Sport 2–3 HIFK in overtime; Vincent Marleau played and recorded 1 point (0+1). |
On Saturday afternoon, attention turns to domestic ice hockey, with several early-evening fixtures on the Liiga schedule. The day's offering is focused on evenly matched domestic contests, where team form, line-ups and the significance of home advantage are key factors to assess.
Over/Under
In Over/Under markets, you bet on the match's total number of goals or points, not the winner. Odds are 1.70–2.20 and the rationale is always specified: match tempo, goaltenders, absences or conditions. In ice hockey, overtime and the shootout are included; in football, only regular time counts.
Ilves – Kiekko-Espoo: Under 4.5 goals @ 2.14
Statistics. Ilves have scored 3.1 and conceded 1.6 goals per match in their last eight matches. K-Espoo's figures over ten matches are 2.5 scored and 1.7 conceded; both teams' power play is at 18.2%, while their penalty kills have operated at 92.0% and 84.4%. Situation. According to the official line-ups, Ilves' Christoffer Rifalk and K-Espoo's Petteri Rimpinen will start in goal. K-Espoo are playing for the second day in a row, while Ilves have had time to rest since Tuesday's match. Estimate. Over: 51% · Under: 49% Why we are betting. The low rate of goals conceded and strong penalty kills push our estimate further towards the under than the market. K-Espoo's b2b puts strain on the defence, so the under remains only a narrow selection. Difference from the market: Our estimate leans more towards the under than the market because both teams' average goals conceded are low and their penalty killing has been strong.
Odds 2.14 · market 44.4% · our estimate 49% · edge +4.9%
SaiPa – Jokerit: Under 5.5 goals @ 1.92
Statistics. SaiPa have scored 2.9 and conceded 1.8 goals per match in their last 9 matches. Jokerit's corresponding figures over 10 matches are 2.0 and 3.4; SaiPa's PP/PK is 24.1/89.5% and Jokerit's is 18.4/79.4%. Situation. The official starters are SaiPa's Kari Piiroinen and Jokerit's Tomi Karhunen. Both are playing a b2b match, and Jokerit's Tappara match the previous evening went to overtime. Estimate. Over: 46% · Under: 54% Why we are betting. Jokerit's modest attacking output of 2.0 goals faces a SaiPa defence that has conceded only 1.8 goals per match. Jokerit's weak defence and b2b strain keep the difference from the market modest. Difference from the market: SaiPa's low average of 1.8 goals conceded and Jokerit's attacking output of 2.0 goals shift our estimate towards the under, although Jokerit's defence and b2b situation offset the effect.
Odds 1.92 · market 51.1% · our estimate 54% · edge +3.7%
Lukko – Ässät: Under 5.5 goals @ 1.70
Statistics. Lukko have scored 2.4 and conceded 1.9 goals per match over nine matches. Ässät's corresponding figures are 2.4 and 2.4; Lukko's PP is 14.8% and Ässät's is 19.4%. Situation. The starting goaltenders are Antti Raanta and Jan Bednar. Both are playing their second match on consecutive days, and Friday's meeting in Pori ended 3–0 to Lukko. Estimate. Over: 40% · Under: 60% Why we are betting. Both teams' attacking output has remained at 2.4 goals per match, and Lukko's average of 1.9 goals conceded supports the estimate for under 5.5 goals. Difference from the market: Our estimate leans more towards the under than the market because both teams' attacking output over nine matches has remained at 2.4 goals per match and Lukko have conceded only 1.9 goals per match.
Odds 1.70 · market 56.4% · our estimate 60% · edge +2.0%
Player markets
No player markets in this publication.
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Sorceress's pick
Added at the administrator's discretion after the model rejected or did not propose it. Tracked separately.
Vaasan Sport - HIFK: Vincent Marleau @ 5.20
Why we are playing it. Today will see a high-scoring match in which Hifk's power play returns towards last season's result. Vincent Marleau is aiming to become the team's leading player following Lehterä's departure. However, Marleau has scored power-play goals well during his career.
There is no model estimate for this market.