Tips 2026-10-04

Sunday's offering is focused on football: several matches are being played in Spain's Segunda División, while international fixtures are also on the schedule in the evening. In tennis, an ATP Tokyo tournament match will be followed in the morning. The estimates are based on the information available, and the odds may change before the matches begin.

Likely

Likely selections are favourites whose chances of winning we consider to be at least as high as the market does. They land more often than value selections, but short odds mean that one loss wipes out several wins. The edge in this band is usually around zero or negative, because the odds include the bookmaker's margin – the long-term return is at market level, not above it.

Adolfo Daniel Vallejo – Jiri Lehecka: Jiri Lehecka to win @ 1.39

Statistics. Lehecka's 2026 hard-court record is 17–10 and Vallejo's is 10–6. Lehecka beat Humbert 5–7, 6–4, 6–4 in Tokyo and won 91% of points behind his first serve; Vallejo defeated Berrettini 7–6, 6–1 in 1 hr 46 min. Situation. Both are in Sunday's quarter-final schedule with no reported withdrawals. Lehecka played three sets on Saturday and Vallejo two, but Vallejo has come through qualifying to reach the tournament. Estimate. Adolfo Daniel Vallejo: 28% · Jiri Lehecka: 72% Why we are backing it. Lehecka is the likely winner on hard courts, but Vallejo's strong tournament prevents us from lifting the estimate above the market's. The estimate matches the market's fair probability.

Odds 1.39 · market 72.0% · our estimate 72% · edge +0.1%

Malta – Andorra: Malta to win @ 1.66

Statistics. Malta have collected three wins, one draw and one defeat from their last five matches, with a goal difference of 8–4. Andorra's record is one win, one draw and three defeats, with a goal difference of 3–8; Malta won the September away meeting 2–1. Situation. A recent preview reports that Malta have no injury concerns, while no new absences were reported for Andorra. Both have their fourth match in 11 days, and Malta's coach said training had focused on recovery. Estimate. Malta: 58.4% · Draw: 28.0% · Andorra: 13.5% Why we are backing it. Malta are justified favourites on the basis of better recent form, home advantage and the 2–1 away win in September. However, no concrete reason overlooked by the market was found to deviate from the fair estimate of 58.4%.

Odds 1.66 · market 58.4% · our estimate 58% · edge -3.0%

Sporting Gijón – Celta Fortuna: Sporting Gijón to win @ 1.64

Statistics. Sporting's record in their last five listed league matches is 2–0–3, with goals of 4–6; Celta Fortuna's corresponding record is 1–1–3, with goals of 4–9. In the last round, Sporting lost 0–2 to Oviedo (xG 0.50–1.76), while Celta Fortuna drew 1–1 with Sabadell (xG 0.60–0.75); xPTS is not available. Situation. Sporting are without seven players, including four attacking options and the suspended César Gelabert. Celta Fortuna's midfield is also severely depleted, and both teams have at least seven full rest days. Estimate. Sporting Gijón: 58.8% · Draw: 24.0% · Celta Fortuna: 17.2% Why we are backing it. Sporting are clear home favourites and Celta Fortuna have taken only one point from their last three matches. However, the numerous absences on both sides do not provide an evidence-based reason to deviate from the market's fair distribution.

Odds 1.64 · market 58.8% · our estimate 59% · edge -3.6%

Portugal – Norway: Portugal to win @ 1.65

Statistics. Portugal have started the Nations League with three wins and an aggregate score of 7–3; Norway's record is one win and two defeats, with an aggregate score of 5–6. Portugal won the teams' meeting in Oslo on 27.9. by 2–1, and in their last six matches Portugal's record is 4–1–1 and Norway's 4–0–2. Situation. Both played on Thursday 1.10., so the rest period is the same, but Portugal have home advantage at Estádio do Dragão. UEFA's preview on 3.10. reported no new absences for either side; Norway's Torbjørn Heggem was sent off against Wales on 1.10., which weakens the away side's defensive rotation. Estimate. Portugal: 57.5% · Draw: 21.8% · Norway: 20.6% Why we are backing it. Portugal's perfect start to the group, home advantage and recent 2–1 away win over Norway make them justified favourites. However, our estimate does not differ from the market's fair estimate, so this is not value odds.

Odds 1.65 · market 57.5% · our estimate 58% · edge -5.0%

Over/Under and Handicap

In Over/Under selections, the bet is on the match's total number of goals or points, not the winner. The odds are 1.70–2.20 and the rationale is always named: match tempo, goalkeepers, absences or conditions. In ice hockey, overtime and shootout are included; in football, only normal time counts. In Handicap selections, the bet is on the winning margin: Lakers −4.5 wins if Lakers win by at least five.

Sporting Gijón – Celta Fortuna: Under 2.5 goals @ 2.13

Statistics. Sporting's goals after seven league matches are 5–6, so their matches have averaged 1.6 goals. Celta Fortuna's goals are 8–11 and their match total average is 2.7; xG is not available. Situation. Sporting are without several attacking players, including Juan Otero, Nikita Iosifov, Konrad de la Fuente and Andrés Ferrari, while César Gelabert is suspended. Celta Fortuna's midfield is affected by absences; the away team's 22-man squad has been announced, but the starting line-ups had not yet been confirmed. Estimate. Over: 47% · Under: 53% Why we are backing it. Sporting's low-scoring profile and attacking absences support an Under 2.5 goals estimate, although Celta Fortuna's defensive figures prevent an even stronger Under stance. Deviation from the market: Sporting's low 5–6 goal profile across seven matches and several attacking absences shift the estimate in favour of the Under.

Odds 2.13 · market 47.4% · our estimate 53% · edge +12.9%

Real Sociedad B – Granada CF: Over 2.5 goals @ 1.99

Statistics. Real Sociedad B's goals after seven league matches are 9–10 and Granada's are 10–11. Over their last five matches, Sociedad B's total-goal average is 3.0 and Granada's is 3.8; Over 2.5 goals has landed in 3/5 and 4/5 respectively. Situation. Mariezkurrena and Kita are suspended for Sociedad B. Emeka is on international duty for Granada and Marqués is doubtful; Diallo returns, but Bamba is unavailable. The starting line-ups have not yet been confirmed. Estimate. Over: 56% · Under: 44% Why we are backing it. The recent goal tempo and goals conceded by both defences support the Over more than the market's almost evenly split estimate. Deviation from the market: The recent match tempo and the high number of goals conceded by both defences lift the probability of Over 2.5 goals above the market estimate.

Odds 1.99 · market 49.2% · our estimate 56% · edge +11.4%

Girona FC – Mallorca: Under 2.5 goals @ 2.04

Statistics. Girona have scored 14 and conceded 8 goals in seven league matches, while Mallorca have scored 8 and conceded only 3. The match total-goal averages are 3.14 for Girona and 1.57 for Mallorca. Situation. Girona's top scorer Asprilla is out, and the participation of several other attacking players is uncertain. Mallorca's key midfielder Morlanes and Antoniu Roca are injured; the starting line-ups have not yet been confirmed. Estimate. Over: 48% · Under: 52% Why we are backing it. Mallorca's tally of only three goals conceded in seven matches and Girona's depleted attack support a low-scoring outcome. Deviation from the market: Mallorca's strong defensive record and Girona's attacking absences shift the estimate more towards Under 2.5 goals than the market.

Odds 2.04 · market 48.0% · our estimate 52% · edge +6.1%

CD Castellón – AD Ceuta FC: Under 3.5 goals @ 1.94

Statistics. Castellón's league-season goals after seven matches are 14–2 and Ceuta's are 6–17. The total-goal average over the last five matches is 3.0 for both; Under 3.5 goals landed in 4/5 of Castellón's matches and 3/5 of Ceuta's. Situation. Castellón's defence has conceded only two goals, but the team are without several players, including midfielder Maty Orozco and attacking option Rodrigo Rego. Among those out of Ceuta's travelling squad are Cedric Teguía, Kenneth Mamah and Edgar Sevikyan, although Omar Sadik returns. Estimate. Over: 46% · Under: 54% Why we are backing it. Castellón's strong defence and absences narrowing the attacking options of both teams lift the Under estimate slightly above the market's. Deviation from the market: The estimate leans more towards the Under than the market because Castellón's defensive figures are exceptionally strong and both teams have absences reducing their attacking options.

Odds 1.94 · market 50.6% · our estimate 54% · edge +4.8%

Netherlands – Serbia: Under 3.5 goals @ 1.90

Statistics. The Netherlands' goals in their last five matches are 9–6, and Under 3.5 goals landed 3/5 times. Serbia's corresponding figures are 3–14, but four of their last five matches stayed under the line; the head-to-head a week ago ended 2–1 to the Netherlands. Situation. Serbia are without Dušan Vlahović, while Aleksandar Mitrović is not in the squad; Brian Brobbey is out among the Netherlands' attacking options. Official starting line-ups had not been announced in the morning, and both are already playing their fourth match within 11 days. Estimate. Over: 45% · Under: 55% Why we are backing it. Serbia's limited attacking output and absences among their leading forwards push the estimate below the market's 51.4% anchor. Fixture congestion and the recent 2–1 meeting support a restrained total-goal outcome. Deviation from the market: The estimate leans more towards the Under than the market because the goal totals in recent matches, the 2–1 meeting a week ago and especially Serbia's attacking absences support a maximum of three goals.

Odds 1.90 · market 51.4% · our estimate 55% · edge +4.5%

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