Monday 5 Oct 2026 · 13 picks · 8/13 hit · return 109.5%

Hits

8/13

of all published

Return

109.5%

flat-stake singles

Totals & spreads

4/6

return 134.7%

Likely

4/7

return 87.9%

Match	Sport	Pick	Odds	Kick-off (Helsinki time)	Status	Result
LikelyOdds 1.30–1.75 · hit more often than value picks, but at short odds one loss wipes out several wins. Edge here is usually near zero or negative – no value edge, nothing is certain.
Cyprus – LatviaUEFA Nations League	Football⚽	Cyprus to winMatch winner (1X2) · 1xBetOdds 1.67 · market 58.1% · our estimate 58% · edge -3.0%i	1.67CLV +1.3 %	Mon, 5 Oct 2026, 19:00Mon 5 Oct19:00morning	Win	2–1 (Cyprus voitti)
		Cyprus have been clearly stronger than Latvia and are at home, but recent absences and the congested match schedule give no reason to raise the estimate above the market's fair 58.1%.
Cyprus have been clearly stronger than Latvia and are at home, but recent absences and the congested match schedule give no reason to raise the estimate above the market's fair 58.1%.
Montenegro – ArmeniaUEFA Nations League	Football⚽	Montenegro to winMatch winner (1X2) · 1xBetOdds 1.56 · market 62.2% · our estimate 62% · edge -3.0%i	1.56CLV +6.8 %	Mon, 5 Oct 2026, 21:45Mon 5 Oct21:45morning	Loss	0–0 (tasapeli)
		Montenegro have won all three of their Nations League matches and won the away meeting 3–2 a week ago. However, there is no source-based reason to deviate from the market's 62.2% estimate.
Montenegro have won all three of their Nations League matches and won the away meeting 3–2 a week ago. However, there is no source-based reason to deviate from the market's 62.2% estimate.
France – BelgiumUEFA Nations League	Football⚽	France to winMatch winner (1X2) · 1xBetOdds 1.53 · market 63.3% · our estimate 63% · edge -3.0%i	1.53CLV −0.7 %	Mon, 5 Oct 2026, 21:45Mon 5 Oct21:45morning	Win	4–1 (France voitti)
		France are narrow but clear favourites at home and have won the last six competitive meetings with Belgium. Mbappé's absence and Upamecano's suspension prevent us from raising the estimate above the market.
France are narrow but clear favourites at home and have won the last six competitive meetings with Belgium. Mbappé's absence and Upamecano's suspension prevent us from raising the estimate above the market.
Italy – TurkeyUEFA Nations League	Football⚽	Italy to winMatch winner (1X2) · 1xBetOdds 1.44 · market 67.3% · our estimate 67% · edge -3.1%i	1.44CLV −3.5 %	Mon, 5 Oct 2026, 21:45Mon 5 Oct21:45morning	Win	3–1 (Italy voitti)
		Italy are clear home favourites: they won the away meeting 4–1 a week ago, while Turkey have lost all three group matches. The estimate remains at the market's fair level.
Italy are clear home favourites: they won the away meeting 4–1 a week ago, while Turkey have lost all three group matches. The estimate remains at the market's fair level.
Linda Noskova – Ekaterina AlexandrovaWTA Beijing	Tennis🎾	Linda Noskova to winMatch winner · StakeOdds 1.30 · market 73.2% · our estimate 74% · edge -3.8%i	1.30	Tue, 6 Oct 2026, 07:10Tue 6 Oct07:10afternoon	Loss	Ekaterina Alexandrova beat Linda Noskova 2–0 (6–2, 6–2). The Linda Noskova selection did not land.
		Noskova's 9–1 form and 55-minute previous match support a slight upgrade to her favourite status, while Alexandrova had to play a 1 hr 54 min three-setter. The odds are still too short.
Noskova's 9–1 form and 55-minute previous match support a slight upgrade to her favourite status, while Alexandrova had to play a 1 hr 54 min three-setter. The odds are still too short.
Pittsburgh Penguins – Winnipeg JetsNHL	Ice hockey🏒	Pittsburgh Penguins to winMatch winner (1X2) · William HillOdds 1.57 · market 60.3% · our estimate 60% · edge -5.3%i	1.57CLV ±0.0 %	Tue, 6 Oct 2026, 02:30Tue 6 Oct02:30night	Loss	2–3 (Winnipeg Jets voitti)
		Pittsburgh are the more rested home team, while Winnipeg are playing on consecutive nights and starting Clay Stevenson in goal. The Penguins' Sergei Murashov is also inexperienced, so the estimate remains in line with the market.
Pittsburgh are the more rested home team, while Winnipeg are playing on consecutive nights and starting Clay Stevenson in goal. The Penguins' Sergei Murashov is also inexperienced, so the estimate remains in line with the market.
Dallas Stars – San Jose SharksNHL	Ice hockey🏒	Dallas Stars to winMatch winner (1X2) · BetssonOdds 1.51 · market 63.0% · our estimate 63% · edge -4.9%i	1.51CLV ±0.0 %	Tue, 6 Oct 2026, 03:00Tue 6 Oct03:00night	Win	5–0 (Dallas Stars voitti)
		Dallas are the home favourites and have collected points in nine consecutive head-to-head matches. The Sharks' strong two-match start and Dallas's scoring problems keep the estimate at the market's 63%.
Dallas are the home favourites and have collected points in nine consecutive head-to-head matches. The Sharks' strong two-match start and Dallas's scoring problems keep the estimate at the market's 63%.
Totals & spreadsOver/under picks call the match's total goals or points, not the winner. Odds are 1.70–2.20 and the reason is always named: pace, goaltending, absences or conditions. In ice hockey overtime and the shootout count; in football only regulation time. Spread picks call the winning margin: Lakers −4.5 wins if the Lakers win by five or more.
Cyprus – LatviaUEFA Nations League	Football⚽	Under 2.5 goalsOver/Under 2.5 goals · 1xBetOdds 1.79 · market 54.2% · our estimate 58% · edge +3.8%i	1.79CLV +4.7 %	Mon, 5 Oct 2026, 19:00Mon 5 Oct19:00morning	Loss	2–1 → 3 maalia, raja 2,5
		4/6 of both sides' last six matches stayed Under 2.5 goals, and the teams' meeting a week ago ended 0–0. Latvia's six-match scoring average is only 0.67.
4/6 of both sides' last six matches stayed Under 2.5 goals, and the teams' meeting a week ago ended 0–0. Latvia's six-match scoring average is only 0.67.
Córdoba – TenerifeSegunda División	Football⚽	Over 2.5 goalsOver/Under 2.5 goals · 1xBetOdds 1.95 · market 50.8% · our estimate 54% · edge +5.3%i	1.95CLV +2.1 %	Mon, 5 Oct 2026, 21:30Mon 5 Oct21:30morning	Win	3–2 → 5 maalia, raja 2,5
		Córdoba's seven league matches have produced 3.71 goals per match and the team have conceded 2.29 per match. Tenerife's attacking absences temper the estimate, but do not remove the pressure towards Over.
Córdoba's seven league matches have produced 3.71 goals per match and the team have conceded 2.29 per match. Tenerife's attacking absences temper the estimate, but do not remove the pressure towards Over.
Bosnia & Herzegovina – PolandUEFA Nations League	Football⚽	Under 2.5 goalsOver/Under 2.5 goals · 1xBetOdds 1.94 · market 50.0% · our estimate 54% · edge +4.8%i	1.94CLV +4.3 %	Mon, 5 Oct 2026, 21:45Mon 5 Oct21:45morning	Win	1–0 → 1 maalia, raja 2,5
		The first meeting ended 0–0, and the rematch is played in a congested schedule without the retired Džeko and Lewandowski. The group situation favours cautious play.
The first meeting ended 0–0, and the rematch is played in a congested schedule without the retired Džeko and Lewandowski. The group situation favours cautious play.
Montenegro – ArmeniaUEFA Nations League	Football⚽	Under 2.5 goalsOver/Under 2.5 goals · 1xBetOdds 2.15 · market 45.2% · our estimate 49% · edge +4.3%i	2.15CLV −22.0 %	Mon, 5 Oct 2026, 21:45Mon 5 Oct21:45morning	Win	0–0 → 0 maalia, raja 2,5
		Four of Armenia's last five matches stayed Under 2.5 goals, and suspended Edgar Sevikyan is absent from the attack. Montenegro pull in the opposite direction, so the edge remains modest.
Four of Armenia's last five matches stayed Under 2.5 goals, and suspended Edgar Sevikyan is absent from the attack. Montenegro pull in the opposite direction, so the edge remains modest.
Ukraine – HungaryUEFA Nations League	Football⚽	Under 2.5 goalsOver/Under 2.5 goals · CasumoOdds 1.70 · market 58.4% · our estimate 60% · edge +2.0%i	1.70CLV −2.5 %	Mon, 5 Oct 2026, 21:45Mon 5 Oct21:45morning	Loss	1–2 → 3 maalia, raja 2,5
		The goal totals in both sides' last five matches have been low, and attacking absences support the Under selection. Defensive absences limit the deviation from the market.
The goal totals in both sides' last five matches have been low, and attacking absences support the Under selection. Defensive absences limit the deviation from the market.
Boston Bruins – Ottawa SenatorsNHL	Ice hockey🏒	Under 5.5 goalsOver/Under 5.5 goals · 1xBetOdds 2.04 · market 48.4% · our estimate 54% · edge +10.2%i	2.04CLV −5.0 %	Tue, 6 Oct 2026, 02:30Tue 6 Oct02:30night	Win	1–4 → 5 maalia, raja 5,5
		Boston's 10-match total-goals average is only 4.8, and confirmed starters Swayman and Ullmark have begun the season strongly. The estimate leans towards the Under.
Boston's 10-match total-goals average is only 4.8, and confirmed starters Swayman and Ullmark have begun the season strongly. The estimate leans towards the Under.