Saturday 10 Oct 2026 · 30 picks · 20/30 hit · return 112.5%

Hits

20/30

of all published

Return

112.5%

flat-stake singles

Value picks

1/1

return 181.0%

Likely

11/14

return 115.7%

Totals & spreads

8/13

return 121.2%

Specials

0/2

return 0.0%

Match	Sport	Pick	Odds	Kick-off (Helsinki time)	Status	Result
LikelyOdds 1.30–1.75 · hit more often than value picks, but at short odds one loss wipes out several wins. Edge here is usually near zero or negative – no value edge, nothing is certain.
Arsenal – Leeds UnitedValioliiga	Football⚽	Arsenal to winMatch winner (1X2) · 1xBetnote: W. Saliba, C. Tzolis, D. James, J. Rodon not in the squadOdds 1.48 · market 66.5% · our estimate 67% · edge -1.6%i	1.48CLV −3.4 %	Sat, 10 Oct 2026, 14:30Sat 10 Oct14:30morning	Win	2–1 (Arsenal voitti)
		Arsenal are clear favourites at home, but Leeds have started the season unbeaten. Absences affect both teams, so the estimate is kept at the market's fair distribution.
Arsenal are clear favourites at home, but Leeds have started the season unbeaten. Absences affect both teams, so the estimate is kept at the market's fair distribution.
TSG Hoffenheim – Hamburger SVBundesliiga	Football⚽	TSG Hoffenheim to winMatch winner (1X2) · 1xBetOdds 1.49 · market 66.1% · our estimate 66% · edge -1.5%i	1.49CLV −1.4 %	Sat, 10 Oct 2026, 16:30Sat 10 Oct16:30morning	Loss	2–3 (Hamburger SV voitti)
		Hoffenheim are justified favourites due to HSV's poor start to the season and important attacking absences, but the public information is likely already in the market price.
Hoffenheim are justified favourites due to HSV's poor start to the season and important attacking absences, but the public information is likely already in the market price.
Lille – Le HavreLigue 1	Football⚽	Lille to winMatch winner (1X2) · 1xBetnote: F. Mambimbi, T. Pembélé, Stephan Zagadou, E. Jelert not in the squadOdds 1.48 · market 66.6% · our estimate 67% · edge -1.4%i	1.48CLV −9.6 %	Sat, 10 Oct 2026, 18:15Sat 10 Oct18:15morning	Win	1–0 (Lille voitti)
		Lille are clear favourites at home due to their league position, home start and Le Havre's absences. The Champions League match against Arsenal in three days tempers the estimate.
Lille are clear favourites at home due to their league position, home start and Le Havre's absences. The Champions League match against Arsenal in three days tempers the estimate.
RB Leipzig – Eintracht FrankfurtBundesliiga	Football⚽	RB Leipzig to winMatch winner (1X2) · 1xBetOdds 1.58 · market 62.3% · our estimate 62% · edge -1.7%i	1.58CLV −6.1 %	Sat, 10 Oct 2026, 19:30Sat 10 Oct19:30morning	Win	6–0 (RB Leipzig voitti)
		Leipzig have won both of their league home matches this season by an aggregate score of 8–0, but Frankfurt's away threat and absences in the Leipzig squad keep the estimate at market level.
Leipzig have won both of their league home matches this season by an aggregate score of 8–0, but Frankfurt's away threat and absences in the Leipzig squad keep the estimate at market level.
AS Monaco – ToulouseLigue 1	Football⚽	AS Monaco to winMatch winner (1X2) · 1xBetnote: Paris Josua Brunner, T. Minamino, Julián Vignolo not in the squadOdds 1.65 · market 59.8% · our estimate 60% · edge -1.3%i	1.65CLV −1.8 %	Sat, 10 Oct 2026, 21:45Sat 10 Oct21:45morning	Loss	2–2 (tasapeli)
		Monaco are clear home favourites, but first-choice striker Paris Brunner's suspension and the defence's xG overperformance prevent the market estimate from being raised.
Monaco are clear home favourites, but first-choice striker Paris Brunner's suspension and the defence's xG overperformance prevent the market estimate from being raised.
SC Paderborn – VfB StuttgartBundesliiga	Football⚽	VfB Stuttgart to winMatch winner (1X2) · 1xBetOdds 1.62 · market 60.8% · our estimate 61% · edge -1.5%i	1.62CLV −2.4 %	Sat, 10 Oct 2026, 16:30Sat 10 Oct16:30afternoon	Win	0–2 (VfB Stuttgart voitti)
		Stuttgart are clear favourites on squad quality, but their early-season league record of 1–0–3 and the absences on both sides support retaining the market estimate without any further increase.
Stuttgart are clear favourites on squad quality, but their early-season league record of 1–0–3 and the absences on both sides support retaining the market estimate without any further increase.
TUTO Hockey – HermesMestis	Ice hockey🏒	TUTO Hockey to win the matchMatch winner · CoralOdds 1.44 · market 64.4% · our estimate 67% · edge -3.5%i	1.44CLV ±0.0 %	Sat, 10 Oct 2026, 17:00Sat 10 Oct17:00afternoon	Win	3–2 VL (TUTO Hockey voitti voittomaalikilpailussa)
		TUTO have started the season more strongly than Hermes and won their September head-to-head away match 4–0. Hermes are playing their second match on consecutive days, while TUTO have had a week of rest.
TUTO have started the season more strongly than Hermes and won their September head-to-head away match 4–0. Hermes are playing their second match on consecutive days, while TUTO have had a week of rest.
Hearts – St MirrenScottish Premiership	Football⚽	Hearts to winMatch winner (1X2) · PinnacleOdds 1.49 · market 64.8% · our estimate 65% · edge -3.6%i	1.49CLV ±0.0 %	Sat, 10 Oct 2026, 17:00Sat 10 Oct17:00afternoon	Win	5–0 (Heart Of Midlothian voitti)
		Hearts' form and goal difference are better than St Mirren's, but both have absences and there was insufficient evidence to deviate from the market estimate.
Hearts' form and goal difference are better than St Mirren's, but both have absences and there was insufficient evidence to deviate from the market estimate.
Ketterä – PyryMestis	Ice hockey🏒	Ketterä to win the matchMatch winner · BetssonOdds 1.53 · market 61.1% · our estimate 61% · edge -6.5%i	1.53CLV −5.5 %	Sat, 10 Oct 2026, 17:00Sat 10 Oct17:00afternoon	Win	2–0 (Ketterä voitti varsinaisella peliajalla)
		Ketterä are home favourites, but a record of 2 wins from 9 and consecutive matchdays provide no evidence-based reason to raise the estimate above the market's fair 61.1%.
Ketterä are home favourites, but a record of 2 wins from 9 and consecutive matchdays provide no evidence-based reason to raise the estimate above the market's fair 61.1%.
JoKP – RoKiMestis	Ice hockey🏒	JoKP to win the matchMatch winner · PinnacleOdds 1.56 · market 59.8% · our estimate 60% · edge -6.7%i	1.56CLV ±0.0 %	Sat, 10 Oct 2026, 17:00Sat 10 Oct17:00afternoon	Win	5–2 (JoKP voitti varsinaisella peliajalla)
		JoKP have home advantage and an extra day's rest, but RoKi's strong five-match run balances the match-up. The estimate remains at the market's fair 59.8%.
JoKP have home advantage and an extra day's rest, but RoKi's strong five-match run balances the match-up. The estimate remains at the market's fair 59.8%.
New Jersey Devils – Vancouver CanucksNHL	Ice hockey🏒	New Jersey Devils to winMatch winner · Paddy PowerOdds 1.36 · market 70.5% · our estimate 71% · edge -4.1%i	1.36CLV +0.8 %	Sat, 10 Oct 2026, 22:30Sat 10 Oct22:30night	Win	4–1 (New Jersey Devils voitti)
		New Jersey are clear home favourites, but the checked information does not justify a departure from the market's 70.5%: Allen starts, Meriläinen is projected and neither team is playing on consecutive days.
New Jersey are clear home favourites, but the checked information does not justify a departure from the market's 70.5%: Allen starts, Meriläinen is projected and neither team is playing on consecutive days.
Vanderbilt Commodores – Ole Miss RebelsNCAA top-25	American football🏈	Ole Miss Rebels to winMatch winner · CoralOdds 1.30 · market 73.5% · our estimate 74% · edge -4.5%i	1.30CLV ±0.0 %	Sat, 10 Oct 2026, 22:30Sat 10 Oct22:30night	Win	17–52 (Ole Miss Rebels voitti)
		Ole Miss are clear favourites due to stronger offensive production and the rest advantage, but the expected return of Vanderbilt QB Jared Curtis prevents the estimate from being raised above the market.
Ole Miss are clear favourites due to stronger offensive production and the rest advantage, but the expected return of Vanderbilt QB Jared Curtis prevents the estimate from being raised above the market.
Kentucky Wildcats – LSU TigersNCAA top-25	American football🏈	LSU Tigers to winMatch winner · BetwayOdds 1.30 · market 73.7% · our estimate 74% · edge -4.2%i	1.30CLV ±0.0 %	Sun, 11 Oct 2026, 02:00Sun 11 Oct02:00night	Loss	35–34 JA (Kentucky voitti jatkoajalla)
		LSU's five-game scoring and defensive figures support clear favouritism, but the away venue, rainy and windy weather and absences provide no reason to depart from the market's fair estimate.
LSU's five-game scoring and defensive figures support clear favouritism, but the away venue, rainy and windy weather and absences provide no reason to depart from the market's fair estimate.
Georgia Southern Eagles – James Madison DukesNCAA top-25	American football🏈	James Madison Dukes to winMatch winner · BetwayOdds 1.36 · market 70.5% · our estimate 71% · edge -4.1%i	1.36CLV −2.2 %	Sun, 11 Oct 2026, 02:30Sun 11 Oct02:30night	Win	24–27 (James Madison Dukes voitti)
		JMU have started 5–0 and scored 44.8 points per game over five games, but the market's 70.5% estimate already accounts for the clear gap in quality and Georgia Southern's home advantage.
JMU have started 5–0 and scored 44.8 points per game over five games, but the market's 70.5% estimate already accounts for the clear gap in quality and Georgia Southern's home advantage.
Value picksOur estimate beats the market
Chelsea – BournemouthValioliiga	Football⚽	Chelsea to winMatch winner (1X2) · Coolbetnote: A. Scott, J. Kluivert, J. Bynoe-Gittens not in the squadBlind estimate 56% · market 54.1% · edge +1.4%i	1.81CLV −3.2 %	Sat, 10 Oct 2026, 17:00Sat 10 Oct17:00morning	Win	5–1 (Chelsea voitti)
		Why we think the market is wrong: Chelsea have home advantage against an opponent who have started the league season without a win and lost six players; the absences of Scott and Kluivert are the most significant for Bournemouth. Chelsea have home advantage against an opponent who have started the league season without a win and lost six players; the absences of Scott and Kluivert are the most significant for Bournemouth.
Why we think the market is wrong: Chelsea have home advantage against an opponent who have started the league season without a win and lost six players; the absences of Scott and Kluivert are the most significant for Bournemouth. Chelsea have home advantage against an opponent who have started the league season without a win and lost six players; the absences of Scott and Kluivert are the most significant for Bournemouth.
Totals & spreadsOver/under picks call the match's total goals or points, not the winner. Odds are 1.70–2.20 and the reason is always named: pace, goaltending, absences or conditions. In ice hockey overtime and the shootout count; in football only regulation time. Spread picks call the winning margin: Lakers −4.5 wins if the Lakers win by five or more.
Arsenal – Leeds UnitedValioliiga	Football⚽	Under 2.5 goalsOver/Under 2.5 goals · 1xBetOdds 2.14 · market 47.0% · our estimate 51% · edge +9.1%i	2.14CLV +0.5 %	Sat, 10 Oct 2026, 14:30Sat 10 Oct14:30morning	Loss	2–1 → 3 maalia, raja 2,5
		Only 3 of Leeds' 10-match sample exceeded 2.5 goals, and James and Joseph are absent from their attack. Defensive absences, however, limit the Under estimate to 51%.
Only 3 of Leeds' 10-match sample exceeded 2.5 goals, and James and Joseph are absent from their attack. Defensive absences, however, limit the Under estimate to 51%.
Augsburg – Bayern MunichBundesliiga	Football⚽	Under 4.5 goalsOver/Under 4.5 goals · 1xBetOdds 1.98 · market 49.8% · our estimate 54% · edge +6.9%i	1.98CLV −5.4 %	Sat, 10 Oct 2026, 14:30Sat 10 Oct14:30morning	Win	2–2 → 4 maalia, raja 4,5
		The line is high: only 5/10 in each team's 10-match sample exceeded 4.5 goals. Bayern have conceded 0.8 goals per match, and Musiala's absence weakens the attack.
The line is high: only 5/10 in each team's 10-match sample exceeded 4.5 goals. Bayern have conceded 0.8 goals per match, and Musiala's absence weakens the attack.
Empoli – PalermoSerie B	Football⚽	Under 2.5 goalsOver/Under 2.5 goals · Pinnaclenote: J. Joronen not in the squadOdds 2.01 · market 48.3% · our estimate 55% · edge +10.5%i	2.01CLV ±0.0 %	Sat, 10 Oct 2026, 16:00Sat 10 Oct16:00morning	Loss	2–4 → 6 maalia, raja 2,5
		Only 2 of Empoli's 9-match sample exceeded 2.5 goals, and they are without striker Shpendi. Palermo's attacking form increases the risk, but the overall picture leans Under.
Only 2 of Empoli's 9-match sample exceeded 2.5 goals, and they are without striker Shpendi. Palermo's attacking form increases the risk, but the overall picture leans Under.
Benevento – Cesena FCSerie B	Football⚽	Under 2.5 goalsOver/Under 2.5 goals · Pinnaclenote: L. Schirone not in the squadOdds 2.04 · market 47.7% · our estimate 53% · edge +8.1%i	2.04CLV ±0.0 %	Sat, 10 Oct 2026, 16:00Sat 10 Oct16:00morning	Win	2–0 → 2 maalia, raja 2,5
		Only 2/5 Serie B matches for both teams have exceeded 2.5 goals. Long competitive breaks and Cesena's draw-heavy start narrowly support the Under estimate.
Only 2/5 Serie B matches for both teams have exceeded 2.5 goals. Long competitive breaks and Cesena's draw-heavy start narrowly support the Under estimate.
RB Leipzig – Eintracht FrankfurtBundesliiga	Football⚽	Over 3.5 goalsOver/Under 3.5 goals · 1xBetOdds 1.77 · market 56.0% · our estimate 60% · edge +6.2%i	1.77CLV −2.2 %	Sat, 10 Oct 2026, 19:30Sat 10 Oct19:30morning	Win	6–0 → 6 maalia, raja 3,5
		Frankfurt's matches have been high-scoring, and the teams' 10-match samples have average total goals figures of 3.6 and 5.0. Therefore, the estimate leans towards Over 3.5 goals.
Frankfurt's matches have been high-scoring, and the teams' 10-match samples have average total goals figures of 3.6 and 5.0. Therefore, the estimate leans towards Over 3.5 goals.
Rangers – KilmarnockScottish Premiership	Football⚽	Under 3.5 goalsOver/Under 3.5 goals · LeoVegasnote: L. Shankland, Youssef Chermiti not in the squadOdds 2.02 · market 47.8% · our estimate 55% · edge +11.1%i	2.02CLV −8.0 %	Sat, 10 Oct 2026, 17:00Sat 10 Oct17:00afternoon	Loss	3–1 → 4 maalia, raja 3,5
		Both teams' recent goals profiles are low, Rangers have conceded only 0.4 goals per match and are missing attacking options. Therefore, the direction shifts to Under 3.5 goals.
Both teams' recent goals profiles are low, Rangers have conceded only 0.4 goals per match and are missing attacking options. Therefore, the direction shifts to Under 3.5 goals.
Sunderland – Brighton and Hove AlbionValioliiga	Football⚽	Under 2.5 goalsOver/Under 2.5 goals · PinnacleOdds 2.08 · market 47.5% · our estimate 52% · edge +8.2%i	2.08CLV +12.4 %	Sat, 10 Oct 2026, 17:00Sat 10 Oct17:00afternoon	Win	0–2 → 2 maalia, raja 2,5
		Brighton's multiple attacking absences, together with Dunk's return and Verbruggen's strong shot-stopping form, push the estimate towards Under 2.5 goals.
Brighton's multiple attacking absences, together with Dunk's return and Verbruggen's strong shot-stopping form, push the estimate towards Under 2.5 goals.
IPK – KeuPa HTMestis	Ice hockey🏒	Over 6.5 goalsOver/Under 6.5 goals · Unibet (NL)Odds 2.08 · market 47.9% · our estimate 51% · edge +6.1%i	2.08CLV ±0.0 %	Sat, 10 Oct 2026, 17:00Sat 10 Oct17:00afternoon	Win	3–3 vmk → 7 maalia, raja 6,5
		KeuPa have conceded 4.11 goals per match, and starting goaltender Jami Pasanen has saved only 86.96%. IPK's 3.75-goal attack can take the match close to the line on its own.
KeuPa have conceded 4.11 goals per match, and starting goaltender Jami Pasanen has saved only 86.96%. IPK's 3.75-goal attack can take the match close to the line on its own.
Preston North End – MillwallChampionship (ENG)	Football⚽	Over 2.5 goalsOver/Under 2.5 goals · Tipiconote: C. De Norre not in the squadOdds 1.79 · market 54.0% · our estimate 59% · edge +5.6%i	1.79CLV +8.4 %	Sat, 10 Oct 2026, 17:00Sat 10 Oct17:00afternoon	Loss	0–1 → 1 maalia, raja 2,5
		In both teams' 10-match samples, 7/10 matches went over 2.5 goals. Preston have conceded 2.0 and Millwall 1.6 goals per match, so the data supports the over direction.
In both teams' 10-match samples, 7/10 matches went over 2.5 goals. Preston have conceded 2.0 and Millwall 1.6 goals per match, so the data supports the over direction.
Vicenza – PisaSerie B	Football⚽	Over 2.5 goalsOver/Under 2.5 goals · PinnacleOdds 1.94 · market 50.0% · our estimate 58% · edge +12.5%i	1.94CLV −0.5 %	Sat, 10 Oct 2026, 18:15Sat 10 Oct18:15afternoon	Win	0–3 → 3 maalia, raja 2,5
		Vicenza's 10-match goal figures are 1.7–2.1 per match and 8/10 went over the line; Pisa's corresponding over rate is 6/10. Caracciolo's absence additionally weakens Pisa's defence.
Vicenza's 10-match goal figures are 1.7–2.1 per match and 8/10 went over the line; Pisa's corresponding over rate is 6/10. Caracciolo's absence additionally weakens Pisa's defence.
Memphis Tigers – UAB BlazersNCAA top-25	American football🏈	Under 54.5 pointsOver/Under 54.5 points · Virgin BetOdds 1.91 · market 50.5% · our estimate 54% · edge +2.2%i	1.91CLV +1.6 %	Sun, 11 Oct 2026, 02:00Sun 11 Oct02:00night	Win	38–13 → 51 pistettä, raja 54,5
		The five-game figures sit almost directly on the line, but forecast rain and a 14–15 mph northerly wind in Memphis shift the passing and kicking games slightly towards the under.
The five-game figures sit almost directly on the line, but forecast rain and a 14–15 mph northerly wind in Memphis shift the passing and kicking games slightly towards the under.
Penn State Nittany Lions – USC TrojansNCAA top-25	American football🏈	Over 54.5 pointsOver/Under 54.5 points · PinnacleOdds 1.93 · market 50.0% · our estimate 53% · edge +2.3%i	1.93CLV ±0.0 %	Sun, 11 Oct 2026, 02:30Sun 11 Oct02:30night	Loss	23–31 → 54 pistettä, raja 54,5
		USC's offence run around 70 offensive snaps per game, and Penn State's defence are missing several linebackers and cornerbacks. The weather will not suppress scoring.
USC's offence run around 70 offensive snaps per game, and Penn State's defence are missing several linebackers and cornerbacks. The weather will not suppress scoring.
Arizona State Sun Devils – Hawaii Rainbow WarriorsNCAA top-25	American football🏈	Under 50.5 pointsOver/Under 50.5 points · Virgin BetOdds 1.95 · market 49.2% · our estimate 53% · edge +3.4%i	1.95CLV ±0.0 %	Sun, 11 Oct 2026, 05:30Sun 11 Oct05:30night	Win	Arizona State-Hawaii Rainbown 30-12
		Hawaii's offence have scored only 17.6 points/game and converted 66.7% of red zone visits. Several of their wide receivers are also out or uncertain.
Hawaii's offence have scored only 17.6 points/game and converted 66.7% of red zone visits. Several of their wide receivers are also out or uncertain.
SpecialsSpecials call an individual player's statistic: points, goals, assists, shots, power-play points or saves in the NHL; points, goals, assists or shots in Liiga; and points, rebounds, assists or threes in the NBA. A pick is published only with a confirmed line-up and voided if the player does not play. Odds are 1.60–2.20 and the reason is always named.
Dylan HollowaySt. Louis Blues – Columbus Blue Jackets · NHL	Ice hockey🏒	Dylan Holloway Under 2.5 shotsShots on goal Over/Under 2.5 · UnibetOdds 1.91 · market 48.5% · our estimate 57% · edge +8.9%i	1.91CLV −0.5 %	Sun, 11 Oct 2026, 02:00Sun 11 Oct02:00night	Loss	3 laukausta, raja 2,5 · D. Holloway laukaukset: 3 (boxscore 2026020079)
		Last 20: 9/20 under 2.5 · shots/60 9.8 · TOI 18:56 Holloway has stayed under 2.5 shots in 8/10 recent games, and his ice time over the last five games has fallen by 10%. His first-line and PP1 role still prevent the under estimate from being raised above the empirical figure.
Last 20: 9/20 under 2.5 · shots/60 9.8 · TOI 18:56 Holloway has stayed under 2.5 shots in 8/10 recent games, and his ice time over the last five games has fallen by 10%. His first-line and PP1 role still prevent the under estimate from being raised above the empirical figure.
Ryan O'ReillyOttawa Senators – Nashville Predators · NHL	Ice hockey🏒	Ryan O'Reilly Over 0.5 pointsPoints Over/Under 0.5 · UnibetOdds 1.71 · market 54.4% · our estimate 63% · edge +7.7%i	1.71CLV +1.8 %	Sun, 11 Oct 2026, 02:00Sun 11 Oct02:00night	Loss	0 pistettä, raja 0,5 · R. O'Reilly pisteet: 0 (boxscore 2026020076)
		Last 20: 12/20 over 0.5 · TOI 21:13 O'Reilly has recorded a point in 7/10 recent games and is projected to play on the first line and PP1. Ottawa's strong early-season defence balances his favourable role.
Last 20: 12/20 over 0.5 · TOI 21:13 O'Reilly has recorded a point in 7/10 recent games and is projected to play on the first line and PP1. Ottawa's strong early-season defence balances his favourable role.