Friday 23 Oct 2026 · 26 picks · 17/26 hit · return 116.4%

Hits

17/26

of all published

Return

116.4%

flat-stake singles

Likely

10/15

return 108.7%

Totals & spreads

7/11

return 127.0%

MatchSportPickOddsKick-off (your time)StatusResult
LikelyOdds 1.30–1.75 · hit more often than value picks, but at short odds one loss wipes out several wins. Edge here is usually near zero or negative – no value edge, nothing is certain.
Västerås SK – Halmstads BKAllsvenskanFootballVästerås SK to winEstimate ≥ marketMatch winner (1X2) · Unibet (SE)note: Moussa Diallo, I. Lushaku not in the squadOdds 1.70 · market 57.1% · our estimate 57% · edge -2.9%i1.70↓ 1.60CLV +3.7 ppmorningLoss1–2 (Halmstad won)

Västerås are strong favourites because of home advantage and Halmstad's 0–3–9 away record. Diallo's absence and Lushaku's doubt are not enough to change the market estimate.

Go Ahead Eagles – SC TelstarEredivisieFootballGo Ahead Eagles to winMatch winner (1X2) · 1xBetOdds 1.61 · market 59.7% · our estimate 60% · edge -4.0%i1.61↓ 1.54CLV +2.8 ppmorningWin3–2 (GO Ahead Eagles won)

Go Ahead Eagles are clear home favourites, but a run of five winless league matches and defensive leaks keep the estimate at market level. Saathof's long absence does not materially alter the balance of power.

Paris Basketball – Valencia BasketEuroLeagueBasketballValencia Basket to winMatch winner · BoyleSportsOdds 1.50 · market 63.6% · our estimate 66% · edge -1.0%i1.50↑ 1.53CLV −1.3 ppmorningWin93–104 (Valencia Basket won)

Valencia have started the EuroLeague 4–2 and scored 98.3 points per game. Paris are 1–5, and among their key players Ntilikina is almost out, while Hifi and Warren are doubts.

Alavés – MálagaLa LigaFootballAlavés to winEstimate ≥ marketMatch winner (1X2) · 1xBetOdds 1.73 · market 57.0% · our estimate 57% · edge -1.4%i1.73↓ 1.64CLV +3.2 ppmorningLoss1–1 (Draw)

Alavés are clear home favourites against bottom-of-the-table and still winless Málaga. However, Alavés's five-match winless run keeps the estimate at the market's 57%.

Bolton Wanderers – MiddlesbroughChampionship (ENG)FootballMiddlesbrough to winMatch winner (1X2) · LeoVegas (SE)note: J. Nelson, A. Jones, R. Pukštas, D. Strelec not in the squadOdds 1.62 · market 60.0% · our estimate 60% · edge -3.0%i1.62↓ 1.60CLV +0.8 ppmorningWin1–5 (Middlesbrough won)

Middlesbrough are strong favourites on the basis of their better goals output over 10 matches, but three absences prevent raising the estimate above the market anchor.

Jukurit – IlvesLiigaIce hockeyIlves to winMatch winner · incl. OT & shootout · NordicBetOdds 1.68 · market 57.3% · our estimate 57% · edge -3.7%i1.68↑ 1.72CLV −1.4 ppafternoonWin0–3 (Ilves won)

Ilves are the market favourites and their attacking output over the last 10 matches is stronger than Jukurit's. However, Jukurit's defensive form and home advantage keep the estimate at market level.

IPK – JoKPMestisIce hockeyIPK to winMatch winner · incl. OT & shootout · NordicBetOdds 1.65 · market 56.6% · our estimate 57% · edge -6.6%i1.65↓ 1.62CLV +1.1 ppafternoonWin3–1 (IPK won)

IPK have home advantage and JoKP are playing their second match on consecutive days, but JoKP's strong recent form and goaltender rotation keep the estimate at market level.

Sport – SaiPaLiigaIce hockeySaiPa to winEstimate ≥ marketMatch winner · incl. OT & shootout · CoralOdds 1.60 · market 57.9% · our estimate 58% · edge -7.4%i1.60↓ 1.52CLV +3.3 ppafternoonWin3–5 (SaiPa won)

SaiPa have been clearly more effective in recent rounds and are also ahead of Sport in the league table. However, there is no rotation or rest advantage to deviate from the market's fair 57.9% estimate.

Kiekko-Espoo – HIFKLiigaIce hockeyKiekko-Espoo to winEstimate ≥ marketMatch winner · incl. OT & shootout · PinnacleOdds 1.70 · market 56.2% · our estimate 56% · edge -4.5%i1.70↓ 1.66CLV +1.4 ppafternoonLoss0–3 (HIFK won)

Kiekko-Espoo's recent goal output and clearly better penalty kill support the home favourites' position, but HIFK's effective power play keeps the estimate close to the market.

Gimnasia La Plata – Sarmiento de JuninArgentiinan PrimeraFootballGimnasia La Plata to winMatch winner (1X2) · Unibet (SE)Odds 1.70 · market 55.2% · our estimate 55% · edge -6.2%i1.70↓ 1.59CLV +4.1 ppafternoonWin2–0 (Gimnasia La Plata won)

Gimnasia are the home favourites and had four more rest days, but Sarmiento's seasonal figures are at least as strong. There is insufficient reason to deviate from the market's 55.2%.

Charlotte Hornets – Atlanta HawksNBABasketballAtlanta Hawks to winMatch winner · WinamaxOdds 1.74 · market 55.3% · our estimate 55% · edge -3.8%i1.74↑ 1.75CLV −0.3 ppnightWin81–128 (Atlanta Hawks won)

Atlanta are justified favourites, and Charlotte are without several rotation players. However, our 55.3% estimate matches the market’s fair distribution, so there are no value odds in this selection.

Milwaukee Brewers – Tampa Bay RaysMLBBaseballMilwaukee Brewers to winMatch winner · 1xBetOdds 1.57 · market 62.4% · our estimate 62% · edge -2.0%i1.57↓ 1.55CLV +0.8 ppnightWin3–2 (Milwaukee Brewers won)

Milwaukee’s starter Jacob Misiorowski was clearly stronger than Nick Martinez in the regular season. However, the market already appears to account for the pitching advantage, so the estimate is kept at the fair market distribution.

Chicago Blackhawks – Montréal CanadiensNHLIce hockeyMontréal Canadiens to winEstimate ≥ marketMatch winner · incl. OT & shootout · PinnacleOdds 1.63 · market 59.9% · our estimate 60% · edge -2.4%i1.63↓ 1.62CLV +0.4 ppnightWin1–4 (Montréal Canadiens won)

Montréal are ahead of Chicago in the early-season team numbers and have confirmed Jacob Fowler in goal. Suzuki’s absence and Chicago’s longer rest prevent the estimate from being raised above the market’s 59.9%.

San Antonio Spurs – Houston RocketsNBABasketballSan Antonio Spurs to winMatch winner · UnibetOdds 1.54 · market 62.4% · our estimate 62% · edge -4.1%i1.54↓ 1.53CLV +0.4 ppnightLoss110–114 (Houston Rockets won)

San Antonio are the market favourites, but Houston’s stronger points differential over 10 games and uncertainty around the Spurs’ key players provide no basis for raising the estimate above the market anchor.

Golden State Warriors – Memphis GrizzliesNBABasketballGolden State Warriors to winMatch winner · Sky BetOdds 1.62 · market 58.1% · our estimate 58% · edge -5.9%i1.62→ 1.62CLV 0.0 ppnightLoss108–111 (Memphis Grizzlies won)

Golden State have home advantage, but Butler, Porzingis and Moody are out. Without evidence that the depleted line-up is not already reflected in the price, the estimate remains at the market’s fair distribution.

Totals & spreadsOver/under picks call the match's total goals or points, not the winner. Odds are 1.70–2.20 and the reason is always named: pace, goaltending, absences or conditions. In ice hockey, goal totals are settled including overtime and the shootout; the shootout counts as one goal. In football only regulation time. Spread picks call the winning margin: Lakers −4.5 wins if the Lakers win by five or more.
Go Ahead Eagles – SC TelstarEredivisieFootballOver 3.5 goalsOver/Under 3.5 goals · 1xBetOdds 2.07 · market 46.5% · our estimate 50% · edge +3.5%i2.07↓ 1.95CLV +3.0 ppmorningWin3–2 → 5 goals, line 3.5

Go Ahead's average total goals over 10 matches is 4.2 and 7/10 went over 3.5 goals; Telstar recorded the corresponding over in 6/10. The H2H history tempers the estimate.

Paris Basketball – Valencia BasketEuroLeagueBasketballValencia Basket −4.5 pointsHandicap −4.5 · Unibet (SE)Odds 1.88 · market 51.6% · our estimate 58% · edge +9.0%i1.88↑ 1.96CLV −2.2 ppmorningWin93–104 → margin +11, line −4.5

Valencia's points differential over six EuroLeague matches is +6.8 per game, Paris's is −6.8. Among Paris's key players, Ntilikina is almost out and Hifi and Warren are doubts, while Valencia are expected to have a full squad.

Torino – MonzaSerie AFootballOver 2.5 goalsOver/Under 2.5 goals · Pinnaclenote: M. Pessina not in the squadOdds 1.96 · market 50.6% · our estimate 54% · edge +5.8%i1.96↓ 1.86CLV +2.7 ppmorningWin3–2 → 5 goals, line 2.5

Monza's average total goals over 10 matches is 3.8 and Over 2.5 has landed 8/10 times. The line was also exceeded in four of Torino's last five league matches.

IF Elfsborg – Malmo FFAllsvenskanFootballUnder 2.5 goalsOver/Under 2.5 goals · TipicoOdds 2.20 · market 44.4% · our estimate 48% · edge +5.6%i2.20↑ 2.28CLV −1.6 ppafternoonWin0–0 → 0 goals, line 2.5

Six of Malmö's last eight league matches stayed under 2.5 goals, and there were 9 Under results in the combined sample of the teams' last 16 league matches. Elfsborg's attacking form keeps the edge modest.

Žalgiris – ASVEL Lyon VilleurbanneEuroLeagueBasketballASVEL Lyon Villeurbanne +7.5 pointsHandicap +7.5 · NordicBetOdds 1.96 · market 49.4% · our estimate 53% · edge +3.9%i1.96↓ 1.95CLV +0.3 ppafternoonLoss105–85 → margin -20, line +7.5

ASVEL regain three important backcourt players, while Žalgiris have to play without playmaker Nigel Williams-Goss. The +7.5-point handicap covers a narrow away defeat.

Olympiacos – Fenerbahce SKEuroLeagueBasketballFenerbahce SK +2.5 pointsHandicap +2.5 · 888Odds 1.91 · market 50.8% · our estimate 55% · edge +4.1%i1.91line movedafternoonWin61–64 → margin +3, line +2.5

Olympiacos' backcourt is short-handed: Fournier and Dorsey are out and Montero is doubtful. Fenerbahce's defence has conceded only 74.5 points per game in a sample of six EuroLeague matches.

Ipswich Town – Nottingham ForestValioliigaFootballOver 2.5 goalsOver/Under 2.5 goals · 1xBetnote: J. Taylor, Igor Jesus not in the squadOdds 1.83 · market 53.9% · our estimate 58% · edge +6.1%i1.83↑ 1.89CLV −1.7 ppnightLoss1–1 → 2 goals, line 2.5

Ipswich’s 10-game goals average is 4.2 and Over 2.5 has landed 8/10 times. Forest’s low-scoring nature tempers the estimate, but Ipswich’s open profile raises the over estimate above the market.

Milwaukee Bucks – Chicago BullsNBABasketballUnder 239.5 pointsOver/Under 239.5 points · 1xBetOdds 1.95 · market 49.6% · our estimate 53% · edge +2.4%i1.95↓ 1.93CLV +0.5 ppnightLoss125–132 → 257 points, line 239.5

The blend derived from the teams’ 10-game total-points averages is 236.5, slightly below the line. Chicago’s weak defence and Nic Claxton’s absence limit the under lean.

Charlotte Hornets – Atlanta HawksNBABasketballUnder 226.5 pointsOver/Under 226.5 points · CoolbetOdds 1.95 · market 49.5% · our estimate 54% · edge +5.3%i1.95→ 1.95CLV 0.0 ppnightWin81–128 → 209 points, line 226.5

Charlotte have averaged 220.1 total points in the 10-game sample, and Kon Knueppel and Coby White are absent from their offence. Atlanta’s pace nevertheless keeps the over risk significant.

Chicago Blackhawks – Montréal CanadiensNHLIce hockeyOver 6.5 goalsOver/Under 6.5 goals · incl. OT & shootout · PinnacleOdds 2.04 · market 47.6% · our estimate 50% · edge +2.0%i2.04↓ 2.02CLV +0.5 ppnightLoss1–4 → 5 goals, line 6.5

Both teams have conceded at least 3.8 goals per game, and confirmed starter Knight’s save percentage is only 88.8. Fowler improves Montréal’s goaltending situation, so the edge remains small.

Colorado Avalanche – Tampa Bay LightningNHLIce hockeyOver 6.5 goalsOver/Under 6.5 goals · incl. OT & shootout · PinnacleOdds 2.00 · market 48.6% · our estimate 52% · edge +4.0%i2.00→ 2.00CLV 0.0 ppnightWin6–3 → 9 goals, line 6.5

Colorado have played games averaging 7.2 goals and scored 4.1 goals per game. The confirmed starters’ season save percentages are only 88.9 and 89.7, which tilts the estimate slightly above the market.