Saturday 24 Oct 2026 · 29 picks · 18/29 hit · return 105.9%

Hits

18/29

of all published

Return

105.9%

flat-stake singles

Likely

11/15

return 115.0%

Specials

2/3

return 117.3%

Totals & spreads

5/10

return 99.4%

Value picks

0/1

return 0.0%

MatchSportPickOddsKick-off (your time)StatusResult
LikelyOdds 1.30–1.75 · hit more often than value picks, but at short odds one loss wipes out several wins. Edge here is usually near zero or negative – no value edge, nothing is certain.
Como – SassuoloSerie AFootballComo to winMatch winner (1X2) · 1xBetOdds 1.52 · market 64.7% · our estimate 65% · edge -1.7%i1.52↓ 1.50CLV +0.9 ppmorningWin2–0 (Como won)

Como are clear home favourites, but short recovery after the Champions League and several absences balance their strong form. The estimate matches the market's fair distribution.

RB Leipzig – ElversbergBundesliigaFootballRB Leipzig to winEstimate ≥ marketMatch winner (1X2) · 1xBetnote: Marc Guiu not in the squadOdds 1.48 · market 66.6% · our estimate 67% · edge -1.5%i1.48↑ 1.56CLV −3.5 ppmorningWin4–0 (RB Leipzig won)

Leipzig have won all three of their league home matches by an aggregate score of 14–0, but a congested fixture schedule and uncertainty over Nkunku prevent us from raising the estimate above the market anchor.

West Ham United – SouthamptonChampionship (ENG)FootballWest Ham United to winMatch winner (1X2) · LeoVegas (SE)note: K. Lamadrid, F. Downes, C. Larin not in the squadOdds 1.71 · market 56.8% · our estimate 57% · edge -3.0%i1.71↓ 1.70CLV +0.3 ppmorningLoss2–3 (Southampton won)

West Ham are second in the league and come into the match on a nine-match unbeaten league run. The market's 56.8% estimate is nevertheless justified, as Southampton have won the same number of league matches.

Lazio – ParmaSerie AFootballLazio to winEstimate ≥ marketMatch winner (1X2) · 1xBetOdds 1.52 · market 64.7% · our estimate 65% · edge -1.7%i1.52↓ 1.47CLV +2.2 ppmorningWin2–1 (Lazio won)

Lazio have started Serie A with a 6–1–0 record, while Parma have collected only four points from seven matches. Absences weaken both sides, and there are insufficient grounds to deviate from the market estimate.

Gil Vicente – FC PortoPrimeira LigaFootballFC Porto to winEstimate ≥ marketMatch winner (1X2) · Unibetnote: A. Tchaptchet, Sergio Bermejo not in the squadOdds 1.45 · market 64.9% · our estimate 65% · edge -5.8%i1.45→ 1.45CLV 0.0 ppmorningWin0–1 (FC Porto won)

FC Porto have won all eight of their league matches, but Gil Vicente's strong defence and Porto's European commitments keep the estimate at market level.

Modena – Cesena FCSerie BFootballModena to winMatch winner (1X2) · PinnacleOdds 1.56 · market 61.9% · our estimate 62% · edge -3.4%i1.56→ 1.56CLV 0.0 ppafternoonWin3–0 (Modena won)

Modena are clear home favourites, but recent results and team news provide no source-based reason to raise the estimate above the market’s 61.9%.

RoKi – KeuPa HTMestisIce hockeyRoKi to winMatch winner · incl. OT & shootout · PinnacleOdds 1.45 · market 64.0% · our estimate 64% · edge -7.2%i1.45→ 1.45CLV 0.0 ppafternoonLoss2–3 in overtime (KeuPa HT won)

RoKi are favourites based on the season and recent matches, but yesterday’s away match is a burden. The 64% estimate matches the market’s fair estimate, so there is no clear edge.

FC Utrecht – FC ZwolleEredivisieFootballFC Utrecht to winEstimate ≥ marketMatch winner (1X2) · Coolbetnote: V. Barkas, S. Floranus, F. Krastev not in the squadOdds 1.67 · market 57.2% · our estimate 57% · edge -4.5%i1.67↓ 1.62CLV +1.9 ppafternoonLoss1–1 (draw)

Utrecht are favourites at home, but both teams’ defensive figures are poor and Utrecht’s absence list is long. No concrete reason was found to deviate from the market’s fair estimate.

Borussia Dortmund – Eintracht FrankfurtBundesliigaFootballBorussia Dortmund to winMatch winner (1X2) · 1xBetOdds 1.53 · market 64.2% · our estimate 64% · edge -1.8%i1.53↓ 1.42CLV +5.1 ppafternoonWin1–0 (Borussia Dortmund won)

Dortmund’s league defence is clearly stronger, but a demanding run of away matches and Frankfurt’s rest advantage prevent us from raising the estimate above the market’s 64.2%.

Palmeiras – Bragantino-SPBrasileirão Série AFootballPalmeiras to winMatch winner (1X2) · 1xBetnote: Eric Ramires not in the squadOdds 1.59 · market 60.4% · our estimate 60% · edge -4.0%i1.59↓ 1.54CLV +2.0 ppafternoonWin2–0 (Palmeiras won)

Palmeiras are second in the league and clearly stronger defensively, but a three-day recovery period and the absences of Andreas Pereira, Piquerez and Vitor Roque prevent an increase to the market estimate.

New Jersey Devils – Los Angeles KingsNHLIce hockeyNew Jersey Devils to winEstimate ≥ marketMatch winner · incl. OT & shootout · PinnacleOdds 1.54 · market 63.3% · our estimate 63% · edge -2.5%i1.54↓ 1.53CLV +0.4 ppnightWin3–1 (New Jersey Devils won in regular time)

The Devils' start to the season and recent form are stronger than the Kings', but the Allen–Kuemper goaltending matchup provides no further reason to raise the estimate above the market.

Edmonton Oilers – Toronto Maple LeafsNHLIce hockeyEdmonton Oilers to winMatch winner · incl. OT & shootout · PinnacleOdds 1.58 · market 61.7% · our estimate 62% · edge -2.5%i1.58↑ 1.69CLV −4.1 ppnightLoss2–7 (Toronto Maple Leafs won in regular time)

Edmonton have started 8–1–1 and scored 47 goals, but Jarry's save percentage is only 87.3 and Ekholm and Levi are absent. Therefore, the estimate is not raised above the market's 61.7%.

Texas Longhorns – Ole Miss RebelsNCAA top-25American footballTexas Longhorns to winEstimate ≥ marketMatch winner (1X2) · PinnacleOdds 1.68 · market 58.2% · our estimate 58% · edge -2.2%i1.68→ 1.68CLV 0.0 ppnightWin34–27 (Texas Longhorns won)

Texas have home advantage and their defence has kept opponents to 17.8 points per game, but two consecutive defeats and key absences limit their status as favourites.

Utah Mammoth – Tampa Bay LightningNHLIce hockeyUtah Mammoth to winMatch winner · incl. OT & shootout · PinnacleOdds 1.73 · market 56.4% · our estimate 56% · edge -2.4%i1.73↓ 1.71CLV +0.7 ppnightWin5–4 in overtime (Utah Mammoth won)

Utah are home favourites, and Tampa Bay are playing the second game of a back-to-back on their road trip. However, the projected goaltending advantage is with Tampa, so there is no deviation from the market estimate.

Seattle Kraken – Minnesota WildNHLIce hockeyMinnesota Wild to winMatch winner · incl. OT & shootout · PinnacleOdds 1.65 · market 59.1% · our estimate 59% · edge -2.5%i1.65↓ 1.57CLV +3.1 ppnightWin1–5 (Minnesota Wild won in regular time)

Minnesota's Wallstedt features in the starter projections, but sources conflict over Seattle's goaltender. The teams' early-season results do not provide sufficient grounds to deviate from the market's 59.1%.

Value picksOur estimate beats the market
HPK – HIFKLiigaIce hockeyHPK to winMatch winner · incl. OT & shootout · NordicBetBlind estimate 54% · market 48.2% · edge +7.5%i1.99↓ 1.87CLV +3.2 ppafternoonLoss3–6 (HIFK won in regular time)

Why we think the market is wrong: HPK have the home rest and goaltender rotation advantage: HIFK are playing for the second time within 24 hours and Hugo Alnefelt is also starting after Friday’s 29-save shutout.

HPK have the home rest and goaltender rotation advantage: HIFK are playing for the second time within 24 hours and Hugo Alnefelt is also starting after Friday’s 29-save shutout.

Totals & spreadsOver/under picks call the match's total goals or points, not the winner. Odds are 1.70–2.20 and the reason is always named: pace, goaltending, absences or conditions. In ice hockey, goal totals are settled including overtime and the shootout; the shootout counts as one goal. In football only regulation time. Spread picks call the winning margin: Lakers −4.5 wins if the Lakers win by five or more.
Rayo Vallecano – Elche CFLa LigaFootballOver 2.5 goalsOver/Under 2.5 goals · 1xBetnote: Luiz Felipe, R. Nteka, A. Rațiu not in the squadOdds 1.91 · market 52.0% · our estimate 56% · edge +7.0%i1.91↓ 1.88CLV +0.8 ppmorningWin0–3 → 3 goals, line 2.5

Over 2.5 landed six times in both teams' 9–10-match samples, and Rayo have conceded 2.2 goals per match. The absences of Batalla, Luiz Felipe and Ciss weaken the home side's defensive structure.

Lazio – ParmaSerie AFootballUnder 2.5 goalsOver/Under 2.5 goals · Coolbetnote: N. Rovella, P. Almqvist not in the squadOdds 1.97 · market 50.4% · our estimate 53% · edge +4.4%i1.97→ 1.97CLV 0.0 ppmorningLoss2–1 → 3 goals, line 2.5

Parma have scored only 0.6 goals per match in their last 10 matches, while Lazio have conceded 0.9. Both sides have normal rest, so fixture congestion does not increase goal expectations.

RB Leipzig – ElversbergBundesliigaFootballOver 3.5 goalsOver/Under 3.5 goals · 1xBetnote: Marc Guiu not in the squadOdds 1.76 · market 55.9% · our estimate 61% · edge +7.4%i1.76↑ 1.89CLV −3.9 ppafternoonWin4–0 → 4 goals, line 3.5

Both teams’ 10-match total-goal averages are high, and Leipzig have scored 14 goals in three home matches. Elversberg’s last match ended 4–3.

Kärpät – KalPaLiigaIce hockeyOver 5.5 goalsOver/Under 5.5 goals · incl. OT & shootout · 1xBetOdds 2.17 · market 45.2% · our estimate 48% · edge +4.2%i2.17→ 2.17CLV 0.0 ppafternoonWin1–5 → 6 goals, line 5.5

Kärpät’s high goal total in recent matches, KalPa’s 24.4% power play against Kärpät’s 75.6% penalty kill, and the back-to-back burden on both teams lift the Over estimate slightly above the market.

Napoli – AS RomaSerie AFootballOver 2.5 goalsOver/Under 2.5 goals · PinnacleOdds 1.93 · market 51.5% · our estimate 54% · edge +4.2%i1.93↓ 1.86CLV +2.0 ppafternoonWin3–3 → 6 goals, line 2.5

Recent match goal totals and the absences of Svilar and Buongiorno tilt the estimate slightly towards Over, although Roma’s attacking absences balance the matchup.

Valencia – VillarrealLa LigaFootballUnder 2.5 goalsOver/Under 2.5 goals · Tipiconote: U. Sadiq, Diego López not in the squadOdds 2.20 · market 44.9% · our estimate 48% · edge +5.6%i2.20↓ 2.19CLV +0.2 ppafternoonLoss1–2 → 3 goals, line 2.5

Valencia’s attacking output has been limited to 0.6 goals per match, and they are without several attacking options. Villarreal may rotate after the Liverpool match.

Boston Bruins – San Jose SharksNHLIce hockeyUnder 6.5 goalsOver/Under 6.5 goals · incl. OT & shootout · PinnacleOdds 1.93 · market 50.4% · our estimate 55% · edge +6.2%i1.93→ 1.93CLV 0.0 ppnightLoss6–4 → 10 goals, line 6.5

Confirmed starters Swayman (92.8%) and Nedeljkovic (91.7%), along with Boston conceding only 2.2 goals/game, push the estimate towards under 6.5 goals.

Columbus Blue Jackets – Vegas Golden KnightsNHLIce hockeyOver 5.5 goalsOver/Under 5.5 goals · incl. OT & shootout · 1xBetOdds 1.76 · market 55.9% · our estimate 59% · edge +3.8%i1.76↓ 1.75CLV +0.3 ppnightLoss1–1 and 1–0 → 3 goals, line 5.5

Vegas score 3.8 goals/game and face a Columbus side conceding 3.6 goals. Hart's 88.8%, Columbus's 70.0% penalty kill and two defensive absences support over 5.5.

D.C. United – FC CincinnatiMLSFootballOver 3.5 goalsOver/Under 3.5 goals · Unibet (SE)Odds 1.93 · market 51.0% · our estimate 54% · edge +4.2%i1.93↓ 1.86CLV +2.0 ppnightLoss0–2 → 2 goals, line 3.5

Cincinnati have conceded 2.5 goals/game in their last ten and 71 goals in 30 MLS matches; defensive absences and both teams playing their third game in eight days support the over.

Orlando City SC – New York City FCMLSFootballOver 3.5 goalsOver/Under 3.5 goals · Unibet (SE)note: R. Jansson, Luis Otávio, M. Moralez not in the squadOdds 2.17 · market 46.6% · our estimate 48% · edge +4.2%i2.17↓ 2.08CLV +2.0 ppnightWin2–2 → 4 goals, line 3.5

Orlando's average total goals over their last 10 games is 4.6 and 7/10 went over 3.5 goals. Jansson's absence weakens the defence, although NYCFC's low-scoring nature limits the edge.

SpecialsSpecials call an individual player's statistic: points, goals, assists, shots, power-play points or saves in the NHL; points, goals, assists or shots in Liiga; points, rebounds, assists or threes in the NBA; and shots and shots on target in football. Hockey and basketball picks are published with a confirmed line-up; a football pick may be published before the line-up is announced and is voided under the bookmaker's rule if the player does not start. Odds are 1.60–2.20 and the reason is always named.
Josh KingCoventry City – Fulham · ValioliigaFootballJosh King Over 0.5 shots on targetShots on target Over/Under 0.5 · UnibetOdds 1.67 · market 59.9% · our estimate 66% · edge +10.2%i1.67↓ 1.62CLV +1.9 ppmorningWin1 shot on target, line 0.5 · 81 min

Last 8: 5/8 over 0.5 · 75 min

King has exceeded the line in 5/8 matches. Coventry have allowed midfielders 3.6 shots on target per match over the last five and are without two defenders.

Kiernan Dewsbury-HallArsenal – Everton · ValioliigaFootballKiernan Dewsbury-Hall Over 1.5 shotsShots Over/Under 1.5 · UnibetOdds 1.93 · market 51.8% · our estimate 56% · edge +8.1%i1.93↑ 1.95CLV −0.5 ppmorningLoss1 shot, line 1.5 · 86 min

Last 9: 5/9 over 1.5 · 89 min

Dewsbury-Hall has exceeded the line in 5/9 matches and played near-full minutes. Arsenal's low volume of shots allowed prevents us from raising the estimate above the empirical 56%.

Eemil ErholtzKärpät – KalPa · LiigaIce hockeyEemil Erholtz Over 0.5 pointsPoints Over/Under 0.5 · UnibetOdds 1.85 · market 49.7% · our estimate 59% · edge +9.2%i1.85→ 1.85CLV 0.0 ppafternoonWin1 point, line 0.5

Last 17: 8/17 over 0.5 · TOI 17:39

Erholtz has been confirmed on Kärpät’s second line and has recorded a point in 8/10 recent matches. KalPa’s starter’s strong start to the season tempers the estimate, so I keep it at the empirical 59%.