Tips 2026-10-23

Friday evening offers plenty of domestic ice hockey in Liiga and Mestis, while football features contests in Sweden's top division and Argentina. Basketball's EuroLeague brings top-level international basketball to the schedule with two evening games.

Likely

Likely selections are favourites whose chances of winning we consider at least as likely as the market does. They land more often than value bets, but short odds mean that one loss wipes out several wins. The edge in this band is generally around zero or negative, as the odds include the bookmaker's margin – the long-term return is at market level, not above it.

Jukurit – Ilves: Ilves to win @ 1.68

Statistics. Jukurit have scored 2.3 and conceded 1.7 goals per game in their last 10 matches; Ilves' corresponding figures are 3.1 and 2.5. Jukurit's PP/PK is 20.5/78.8%, Ilves' is 14.6/92.5%. Jukurit lead the league with 30 points from 16 matches, while Ilves are third with 28 points from 15 matches. Situation. The starting goaltenders, based on the official line-ups, are Jukurit's Jesper Myrenberg and Ilves' Mantas Armalis. Neither is playing back-to-back, as both last played on Tuesday 20.10.; Jukurit beat Sport 3–0 and Ilves lost 3–4 to TPS. Estimate. Jukurit: 42.7% · Ilves: 57.3% Why we are betting. Ilves are justified favourites thanks to their attacking output and strong penalty kill, but Jukurit's defensive form and home advantage prevent a higher estimate than the market's. The estimate matches the market's fair distribution, so no separate unpriced edge was found.

Odds 1.68 · market 57.3% · our estimate 57% · edge -3.7%

Kiekko-Espoo – HIFK: Kiekko-Espoo to win @ 1.70

Statistics. Kiekko-Espoo have scored 34 and conceded 32 goals in their last 10 matches; HIFK's corresponding figures are 26 and 30. Kiekko-Espoo's PP/PK is 18.4% / 84.0%, HIFK's is 27.0% / 74.0%. Situation. According to the official line-up, the starting goaltenders are Kiekko-Espoo's Petteri Rimpinen and HIFK's Hugo Alnefelt. Neither team is playing on consecutive days, as Kiekko-Espoo last played on 21.10. and HIFK on 20.10. Estimate. Kiekko-Espoo: 56.2% · HIFK: 43.8% Why we are betting. Kiekko-Espoo's better recent scoring and clearly stronger penalty kill support the home favourites' position, but HIFK's effective power play keeps the estimate at market level.

Odds 1.70 · market 56.2% · our estimate 56% · edge -4.5%

Gimnasia La Plata – Sarmiento de Junin: Gimnasia La Plata to win @ 1.70

Statistics. Gimnasia's record over the last 10 matches is 1.4 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per game; Sarmiento's corresponding figures are 1.6 and 1.2. In the Clausura, Gimnasia are 4th with 22 points and Sarmiento 5th with 21 points after 13 matches; both have won three of their six home or away matches. Situation. Gimnasia's latest official preview lists the home side's matchday squad and Sarmiento's likely starting XI, and reports no notable absences. Gimnasia have eight rest days and Sarmiento four. Estimate. Gimnasia La Plata: 55.2% · Draw: 26.4% · Sarmiento de Junin: 18.4% Why we are betting. Gimnasia are the home favourites and better rested, but Sarmiento's results and goal figures prevent the estimate being raised above the market's fair 55.2%.

Odds 1.70 · market 55.2% · our estimate 55% · edge -6.2%

IPK – JoKP: IPK to win @ 1.65

Statistics. IPK's record over their last five matches is 3–2, with goals of 19–16; JoKP's corresponding record is 4–1, with goals of 20–11. IPK won the season's first head-to-head match 5–1 in Joensuu. Situation. Based on the official line-ups, IPK's starting goaltender is Jooa Sammalniemi and JoKP's is Paavo Kohonen. JoKP are playing for the second consecutive day, but Jester Rossi was in goal on Thursday, so Kohonen is rested; IPK last played on Wednesday. Estimate. IPK: 56.6% · JoKP: 43.4% Why we are betting. The strain of JoKP playing on consecutive days supports IPK, but the away team's strong form and rested starting goaltender balance the matchup. There is no concrete reason to deviate from the market's fair estimate.

Odds 1.65 · market 56.6% · our estimate 57% · edge -6.6%

Sport – SaiPa: SaiPa to win @ 1.60

Statistics. After 14 matches, SaiPa are fifth with 28 points, while Sport are 13th with 19 points. In their last 10 matches, SaiPa have scored 29 and conceded 19 goals, while Sport have scored 16 and conceded 23; SaiPa's PP/PK is 26.7/89.8% and Sport's is 18.4/85.4%. Situation. Sport's starting goaltender Joni Ortio and SaiPa's Kari Piiroinen have been confirmed in the Liiga line-ups. Neither is playing on consecutive days, as both last played on 20.10. Estimate. Sport: 42.1% · SaiPa: 57.9% Why we are betting. SaiPa are the more likely winners of the match thanks to stronger recent scoring output and special-teams play. However, there is no concrete rest or rotation advantage to deviate from the market estimate.

Odds 1.60 · market 57.9% · our estimate 58% · edge -7.4%

Over/Under and handicap

Over/Under selections predict the total number of goals or points in a match, not the winner. The odds are 1.70–2.20 and the rationale is always specified: match tempo, goaltenders, absences or conditions. In ice hockey, overtime and the shootout count; in football, only regular time counts. Handicap selections predict the winning margin: Lakers −4.5 wins if the Lakers win by at least five.

IF Elfsborg – Malmo FF: Under 2.5 goals @ 2.20

Statistics. In Elfsborg's 10-match sample, goals were 2.0–0.7 per match and Over 2.5 landed 6/10 times. Malmö FF's figures are 1.5–0.8 and Over 2.5 4/10; six of their last eight league matches stayed under the line. Situation. Both had five rest days, so fixture congestion provides no additional signal. Absences have been checked: Malmö have seven players missing, but the confirmed players on the list, Jansson and Karabelyov, have started only three and four league matches. Kick-off has been confirmed for 20.00 (Helsinki time). Estimate. Over: 52% · Under: 48% Why we are betting. Malmö FF's low-scoring recent league matches raise the Under estimate slightly above the market. However, Elfsborg's strong attacking sample keeps the deviation modest. Deviation from the market: The estimate leans more towards Under than the market because six of Malmö FF's last eight Allsvenskan matches stayed under 2.5 goals, and there were 9/16 Under results in the combined sample.

Odds 2.20 · market 44.4% · our estimate 48% · edge +5.6%

Olympiacos – Fenerbahce SK: Fenerbahce SK +2.5 points @ 1.91

Statistics. Olympiacos have scored 98.2 and conceded 89.8 points per game in six EuroLeague matches; their matches have averaged 188.0 points. Fenerbahce's corresponding figures are 83.5 scored, 74.5 conceded and 158.0 total points per game. Situation. Evan Fournier and Tyler Dorsey are out for Olympiacos, Jean Montero is doubtful and Nikolaos Plotas is absent; Fenerbahce have no reported injury absences. Neither team is in a back-to-back situation, with five days since their previous domestic league matches. Estimate. Fenerbahce SK +2.5: 54.5% · Olympiacos −2.5: 45.5% Why we are betting. Olympiacos' multiple backcourt absences weaken ball-handling and rotation depth against Fenerbahce's more intact squad, shifting the estimate towards Fenerbahce SK +2.5. Deviation from the market: The squad situation shifts the estimate towards Fenerbahce SK +2.5 because Fournier and Dorsey are absent for Olympiacos and Montero is doubtful, while Fenerbahce have no reported injury absences.

Odds 1.91 · market 50.8% · our estimate 55% · edge +4.1%

Žalgiris – ASVEL Lyon Villeurbanne: ASVEL Lyon Villeurbanne +7.5 points @ 1.96

Statistics. Žalgiris have scored 81.7 and conceded 86.2 points per game in six EuroLeague matches. ASVEL's corresponding figures are 87.8 and 95.3; both have a 2–4 record. Situation. Žalgiris are playing without Nigel Williams-Goss, and the club's own preview states that his absence is significant for organising the game. Mills, Waters and Crowder are expected to return for ASVEL; Begarin is a game-day decision and Dossou-Yovo is out. Neither is in a back-to-back situation. Estimate. ASVEL Lyon Villeurbanne +7.5: 53% · Žalgiris −7.5: 47% Why we are betting. The squad situation tilts the estimate towards ASVEL: the visitors regain important backcourt quality while Žalgiris are without playmaker Williams-Goss. The +7.5-point handicap also covers a narrow away defeat. Deviation from the market: The squad situation shifts the estimate towards ASVEL: Mills, Waters and Crowder are expected to return, while Žalgiris playmaker Nigel Williams-Goss is out.

Odds 1.96 · market 49.4% · our estimate 53% · edge +3.9%

Specials

No special bets in this publication.

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