Tips 2026-10-23

The evening and night’s offering gets under way with a Premier League match and an NBA basketball clash, before attention turns to North America’s late-evening games. The schedule features NBA, NHL ice hockey and MLB baseball, so there is plenty to bet on across several leagues into the early hours.

Probables

Probables are favourites whose chance of winning we consider at least as likely as the market does. They land more often than value bets, but short odds mean that one loss wipes out several wins. The edge in this band is generally around zero or negative because the odds include the bookmaker’s margin – the long-term return is at market level, not above it.

Milwaukee Brewers – Tampa Bay Rays: Milwaukee Brewers to win @ 1.57

Statistics. Jacob Misiorowski recorded a 16–5 record, a 1.80 ERA and a 0.80 WHIP in the 2026 regular season. Nick Martinez’s corresponding figures were 15–6, a 3.10 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP; in the play-offs, the pair’s ERAs are 3.24 and 3.00. Situation. Jacob Misiorowski and Nick Martinez have been confirmed as the starters for the first game of the World Series on MLB’s probable pitchers page. The game will be played at American Family Field, but the batting orders were still TBD at the time of checking. Estimate. Milwaukee Brewers: 62.4% · Tampa Bay Rays: 37.6% Why we are backing it. Misiorowski’s regular-season pitching numbers are stronger than Martinez’s, but the market already appears to account for this. We therefore do not deviate from the market’s fair distribution.

Odds 1.57 · market 62.4% · our estimate 62% · edge -2.0%

Chicago Blackhawks – Montréal Canadiens: Montréal Canadiens to win @ 1.63

Statistics. Montréal’s record is 4–3–2 and Chicago’s is 3–6–0; the Canadiens have scored 3.11 and conceded 3.78 goals per game, while the Blackhawks have scored 2.33 and conceded 4.00. Of the confirmed starters, Jacob Fowler has a 90.0% save percentage and Spencer Knight 88.8%. Situation. Jacob Fowler and Spencer Knight have been confirmed as the starters. Neither is playing on consecutive days, but Chicago have had five full days of rest to Montréal’s two; in addition, Canadiens’ Nick Suzuki is out for 2–4 weeks. Estimate. Chicago Blackhawks: 40.1% · Montréal Canadiens: 59.9% Why we are backing it. Montréal are justified favourites due to their better early-season attacking output and the Fowler–Knight goaltending advantage. However, Suzuki’s absence and Chicago’s rest advantage are significant counterweights, so the estimate remains at the market’s fair 59.9%.

Odds 1.63 · market 59.9% · our estimate 60% · edge -2.4%

Charlotte Hornets – Atlanta Hawks: Atlanta Hawks to win @ 1.74

Statistics. In the last 10 games of the provided ESPN sample, Charlotte scored 113.0 and conceded 107.1 points per game; Atlanta scored 120.2 and conceded 113.2. In their season openers, Charlotte beat Brooklyn 110–103 and Atlanta beat Orlando 132–125. Situation. In the NBA’s official report of 23.10.2026 at 13.15 ET (Helsinki time), Kon Knueppel, Coby White, Grant Williams and Kylan Boswell are out for Charlotte; Henri Veesaar and Mouhamed Gueye are out for Atlanta, while Jock Landale is available. The report lists no rest-related absences for either side, and the teams are not playing on consecutive days. Estimate. Charlotte Hornets: 44.7% · Atlanta Hawks: 55.3% Why we are backing it. Atlanta are justified favourites for the Probables band, supported by Charlotte’s absences. However, our own estimate remains exactly at the market’s fair distribution, so there are no value odds in this selection.

Odds 1.74 · market 55.3% · our estimate 55% · edge -3.8%

San Antonio Spurs – Houston Rockets: San Antonio Spurs to win @ 1.54

Statistics. In the Spurs’ 10-game sample, the scoring averages are 122.3 scored and 112.4 conceded, compared with 124.5 and 108.5 for Houston. The Spurs have won 7 of the listed games and Houston 9; the sample includes one game from the 2026–27 season and nine from 2025–26. Situation. In the official NBA report, De’Aaron Fox and Keldon Johnson are doubtful, while Tobias Harris and Jayden Quaintance are out; for Houston, Steven Adams and Reed Sheppard are doubtful. No rest absences have been reported, and neither side is entering a back-to-back game. Estimate. San Antonio Spurs 62.3% · Houston Rockets 37.7% Why we are backing it. No sourced edge justifying a departure from the market probability was found, so the estimate is kept at the market’s fair distribution.

Odds 1.54 · market 62.3% · our estimate 62% · edge -4.1%

Golden State Warriors – Memphis Grizzlies: Golden State Warriors to win @ 1.62

Statistics. In Golden State’s 10-game sample, the scoring averages are 111.0 scored and 119.4 conceded; Memphis’s corresponding figures are 113.0 and 130.4. The sample includes one game from the 2026–27 season and nine from 2025–26 for each team; in the opening game, the Warriors lost 105–127 and the Grizzlies won 123–103. Situation. Jimmy Butler III, Moses Moody and Kristaps Porzingis are out for the Warriors, while Brandin Podziemski and Charles Bassey are doubtful. For Memphis, Cedric Coward is unlikely and Isaiah Stewart is doubtful; no rest absences were reported, and neither side is playing a back-to-back game. Estimate. Golden State Warriors: 58.1% · Memphis Grizzlies: 41.9% Why we are backing it. Golden State have home advantage, but a significant shortfall in the line-up balances the matchup. We cannot find a sourced reason to depart from the market’s fair distribution.

Odds 1.62 · market 58.1% · our estimate 58% · edge -5.9%

Over/Under and Handicap

In Over/Under selections, you bet on the game’s total goals or points rather than the winner. The odds are 1.70–2.20 and the rationale is always specified: game pace, goaltenders, absences or conditions. In ice hockey, overtime and the shootout are included; in football, only regular time counts. In Handicap selections, you bet on the winning margin: Lakers −4.5 wins if the Lakers win by at least five.

Ipswich Town – Nottingham Forest: Over 2.5 goals @ 1.83

Statistics. Ipswich’s total goals average across their last 10 matches has been 4.2: the team have scored 2.0 and conceded 2.2 goals per game. Over 2.5 goals landed 8/10 times in Ipswich’s sample, while Forest’s figures were 0.9 scored, 1.2 conceded and 4/10 overs. Situation. In the confirmed starting line-ups, Ipswich attack led by Emersonn, Daizen Maeda and Julio Enciso, while Liam Delap, Dan Ndoye and Nicolás Domínguez start in Forest’s attack. The four reported absences have been accounted for, and after 5–6 days’ rest neither side has fixture congestion. Estimate. Over: 58% · Under: 42% Why we are backing it. Ipswich’s open game profile, 8/10 overs and 2.2 goals conceded per game lift the over estimate above the market’s fair estimate, although Forest’s own goals output has been modest. Departure from the market: Ipswich’s high total-goals average, 8/10 Over 2.5 landings and 2.2 goals conceded per game shift the estimate towards the over despite Forest’s low-scoring nature.

Odds 1.83 · market 53.9% · our estimate 58% · edge +6.1%

Charlotte Hornets – Atlanta Hawks: Under 226.5 points @ 1.95

Statistics. Charlotte’s total average over the last 10 games is 220.1 points: the team have scored 113.0 and conceded 107.1 points per game. Atlanta’s corresponding total average is clearly higher at 233.4, having scored 120.2 and conceded 113.2 points per game. Situation. Kon Knueppel and Coby White, as well as Grant Williams and Kylan Boswell, are absent for Charlotte; Mouhamed Gueye and Henri Veesaar are out for Atlanta. Neither side is playing on consecutive days, and this is a regular-season game. Estimate. Over: 46% · Under: 54% Why we are backing it. Charlotte’s restrained total points tally in recent games and the absences of two key scorers push the estimate below the line. Atlanta’s high scoring pace prevents a greater departure from the market. Departure from the market: The estimate leans under the market because Charlotte’s total points average in recent games is below the line and two key scorers are out.

Odds 1.95 · market 49.5% · our estimate 54% · edge +5.3%

Colorado Avalanche – Tampa Bay Lightning: Over 6.5 goals @ 2.00

Statistics. Colorado have scored 4.1 and conceded 3.1 goals per game in their last 10 games. Tampa Bay’s corresponding figures over nine games are 3.4 and 2.6; the teams’ power plays are 18.8% and 12.9%. Situation. Blackwood and Vasilevskiy have been confirmed as the starters, and their season save percentages are 88.9 and 89.7. Neither team is playing on consecutive days; Colorado get O'Connor back, but Roy and L'Heureux are out, while Tampa Bay’s Cirelli was still day-to-day. Estimate. Over: 52% · Under: 48% Why we are backing it. Colorado’s 7.2-goal game average and both starters’ save figures below 90% move the estimate marginally to the over side of the market. Departure from the market: Colorado’s high-goal environment and the save figures below 90% of both confirmed starters raise the over estimate above the market’s fair 48.6%.

Odds 2.00 · market 48.6% · our estimate 52% · edge +4.0%

Milwaukee Bucks – Chicago Bulls: Under 239.5 points @ 1.95

Statistics. Milwaukee’s total average over the last 10 games is 231.7 points and Chicago’s is 241.3. The game profile derived from the teams’ offensive and defensive averages is 236.5 points. Situation. Chicago’s Nic Claxton is out according to the official injury report, while the other Bulls players named in the report are available and no absences are listed for the Bucks. Both played on 21.10., so there is one rest day and this is not a back-to-back; the game is the regular-season home opener. Estimate. Over: 47.5% · Under: 52.5% Why we are backing it. The high line is slightly above the combined points profile of recent games. Chicago’s defensive figures and Claxton’s absence temper confidence, so the departure from the market is kept modest. Departure from the market: The combined points profile over the last 10 games weights the estimate slightly below 239.5 points, although Chicago’s defensive figures and Nic Claxton’s absence support the opposite direction.

Odds 1.95 · market 49.6% · our estimate 53% · edge +2.4%

Chicago Blackhawks – Montréal Canadiens: Over 6.5 goals @ 2.04

Statistics. Chicago have scored 2.3 and conceded 4.0 goals per game over nine games, while Montréal’s corresponding figures are 3.3 and 3.8. Their penalty kills have been only 74.1% and 78.4%, although both power plays have been below 14%. Situation. Spencer Knight (88.8%) and Jacob Fowler (90.0% in four games) have been confirmed as starters. Neither team is on consecutive game days; Chicago’s Bowen Byram was out for the previous game and under day-to-day monitoring. Estimate. Over: 50% · Under: 50% Why we are backing it. The teams’ defensive figures and Knight’s early-season save percentage support the over slightly above the market. However, Fowler and the teams’ rest keep the estimate close to even. Departure from the market: Chicago’s and Montréal’s high averages of goals conceded, along with Knight’s 88.8% save percentage, shift the estimate slightly towards the over side of the market.

Odds 2.04 · market 47.6% · our estimate 50% · edge +2.0%

Specials

No special bets in this publication.

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